He’s on a heater. Also, he throws a heater now.
Spring is a time for renewal. Perennial flowers bloom. Leaves return to the trees. José Alvarado starts to look like himself again.
After a disappointing 2023 (4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), Alvarado decided to make some changes. He added a 4-seamer and curve to complement his sinker and cutter. He added a new conditioning regimen. And so far, it’s paying dividends. Through 7 IP this spring, Alvarado has allowed 2 hits and no runs. He’s hitting just over 102 on the radar gun. He’s struck out a whopping 16 of the 27 batters he’s faced. A K% of 59% will play.
7 IP is a tiny sample size, but there’s multiple reasons to believe what we’re seeing is real. There’s a straight line to be drawn between his improved conditioning and improved performance. The new pitches are giving batters more to think about. And the increased velocity is proof positive that he really has changed. Still, he can’t pitch quite this well over the course of a full season. He’s not going to maintain a 59% strikeout rate over the course of an entire campaign. It’s a matter of where his performance will settle in the regular season. It’ll very likely be better than what he did in 2023, and not quite as good as what he’s shown in spring. But that’s a rather wide range. So today’s question is: how much of Alvarado’s spring performance will translate to the regular season?