A glass half full approach
The Phillies will play their first regular season game of the 2025 season tomorrow. There’s much baseball to be played ahead of us over the next six months, so however you look at the team’s chances to begin the year will likely change as we move through the daily grind.
But here at the start of the season, you’re likely in one of two camps. That is the optimist or the pessimist. This week, we’ll try to describe three big reasons why its logical to fall into either camp. And in order to not bring down the excitement before the games begin, we’ll begin with the optimism.
The Phillies have one of the best starting rotations in baseball (on paper)
You’ve likely heard about this all winter, but it bears repeating. The Phillies starting pitchers finished last season third in fWAR (16.0) tied for seventh in ERA (3.81), sixth in FIP (3.88), and eighth in WHIP (1.22). All of that is a long way of saying they were fantastic last season and were the major reason the Phillies won 95 games. They were able to accomplish this despite never really solidifying the fifth starter spot and missing Ranger Suárez for a month.
Now, they added Jesús Luzardo, who in his last healthy season collected 3.8 fWAR, and have Andrew Painter on track to arrive mid-season. They will be without Suárez again to start the season, but this time they only have one starter spot in flux rather than two like when he was out last season.
That’s not to discount from those who are returning. Zack Wheeler is a perennial Cy Young candidate. Cristopher Sánchez broke out and had an All-Star season last year and looks to have improved this spring with added velocity. Aaron Nola had an underrated season and is still an innings workhorse. Sure, the depth is suspect, but that could be true for any team. What sets the Phillies apart however is their ability to run quality starters out more often than not.
The offense, though flawed, is still arguably top five in baseball
We all know the problems with the Phillies offense. There’s no question that the bats have let the team down and have been one of if not the most contributing factor of their last three postseason exits. But yet, it must be acknowledged that this group is still among the best lineups in baseball.
After all, they did finish fifth in OPS (.750), fifth in AVG (.257), fifth in runs scored (784), seventh in home runs (198), and eighth in wRC+ (108). They still employ Bryce Harper who posted 5.7 fWAR and whose .898 OPS ranked tenth among all qualified hitters in 2024. Kyle Schwarber hit 38 home runs, ranking eighth most in baseball and his third straight year with at least 35 long balls. Trea Turner finished with a 124 OPS+ even if it was admittedly a season of peaks and valleys. J.T. Realmuto may be 34 now and coming off a knee injury, but he excelled in the regular season when he did come off the injured list, carrying a .788 OPS through 48 games. There’s reason to believe a reduced workload will be to his benefit.
The outfield is still suspect, but newcomer Max Kepler had a torrid spring, hitting .375 with a 1.175 OPS and three home runs in 50 plate appearances. Those numbers are probably too lofty an expectation, but its a safe bet to believe that Kepler will at least be a dramatic upgrade over the Whit Merrifields and Austin Hayses of the world. The offense is already borderline top five and there is still room to improve.
José Alvarado looks to have reclaimed his form
2024 was a disappointing season for Alvarado. His average velocity fell a full mile per hour and with it his strikeout rate plummeted from 37.2% in 2023 to 24.4% in 2024. He had a 4.09 ERA in 66 appearances and became almost unusable by season’s end.
But Alvarado looks rejuvenated this spring, with an electric fastball that averaged 100.2 MPH while he collected 20 strikeouts in just nine innings of work. “Best shape of his life” is a phrase that’s overused, but it may be true in Alvarado’s case, as a slimmer build appears to have helped him recapture the dominance that he’s shown in previous seasons with the Phillies.
The Phillies bullpen was elite last season even if Alvarado wasn’t. They may have lost some big pieces, but a revitalized Alvarado would do wonders to remedy those losses. He is at his best when firing turbo sinkers and making hitters look silly with his devastating cutter. This form of Alvarado is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. If that’s the Alvarado that the Phillies have this season, there’s a good chance they will have a very strong back half of their bullpen once again.