Hey! He’s walking here!
There’s no such thing as a free lunch, but there is such a thing as a free pass. For all the talk about the Phillies being too willing to swing and chase in 2024, they were one of the better teams in the league at taking bases on balls, with their 515 walks ranking 7th league-wide. And this year, with their increased focus on plate discipline, they’ve been even better. Through 20 games they’ve worked 89 walks, tied with Arizona for 2nd best league wide (the Cubs pace the pack with 92). It’s a great start to the season both in comparison to their 2025 competitors and to the Phillies teams of the past; only 9 other Phillies teams had more walks to start the season (the 1996 Phillies may have finished with an unimpressive 67-95 record, but no other team in franchise history can boast more than their 107 walks through their first 20 games).
Of the 8 Phillies with enough plate appearances to be qualified batters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber lead the team by walking 19.1% of the time. Their BB% from 2024 were 15.3% and 12.0% respectively, ranking them #1 and #2 on the team that year as well, so that ought to come as no surprise. Their excellent numbers to start 2025 are a case of ever so much more so, making a good thing even better. What’s more surprising is the player who comes in at #3 on the team in walk rate: J.T. Realmuto. Granted, his BB% of 11.8% doesn’t exactly leap off the page, ranking 54th league-wide.
But in comparison to his numbers from past years, it’s a huge jump. He’s never posted a double-digit walk rate across an entire season, with his best number being 8.9% in 2021. And it declined from there, with a 7.3% in 2022 and identical 6.5% figures in 2023 and 2024. If the spike in walks seen to start 2025 represents genuine, durable improvement, it’s a fantastic development. But the increase in BB% has also been accompanied by another, less cheering rise. Specifically, one in his K%. Realmuto is striking out 30.9% of the time, which would be a career-worst by far. So, we have a question to answer: How is Realmuto simultaneously showing more discipline in the form of more walks, and less discipline in the form of more Ks?
All corners of the fanbase called for less chasing, and Realmuto (and the coaching staff) must’ve heard. Realmuto’s chase rate was 30.2% in 2024. In 2025, it’s 23.9%. He’s swinging less overall too: a swing rate of 46.2% so far, down from 50.5. We can take a deeper look at the pitches he is and isn’t swinging at.
Statcast breaks down the area of the plate into four zones: heart, shadow, chase, and waste. Heart is the heart of the plate. Shadow includes both the outer parts of the zone and the area just outside it. Chase is the area outside of the zone where a player might (but probably shouldn’t) swing. And waste is the area so far outside of the zone that the pitch is, well, wasted.
Here’s a visual aid (the numbers are the run value accrued for pitches in each zone). Purple is Heart, Red is Shadow, Yellow is Chase, and Gray is Waste.
Here’s Realmuto’s swing/take decisions broken down by zone in 2025:
And here’s the same breakdown for 2024:
Realmuto is swinging less at pitches in all 4 zones (which lines up with his overall Swing % being down). But the decline is concentrated exactly where you’d want it to be. His swing rate for pitches in the heart of the zone is only down 1% from last year, which is more or less negligible. What’s not negligible is the 7% decrease in his swing rate at pitches in the Shadow zone and the 6% decrease for pitches in the Chase zone.
So that explains the increased walk rate: he’s swinging less, and in particular, he’s swinging less at the pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at.
But what about the soaring strikeout rate? His Whiff rate is up (27.8% from 26.2 last year), and his contact rate on pitches in the zone is down (81.8% from 82.4% last year). But there’s something else that could be going on too:
Here’s Realmuto’s K% by zone in 2025:
And here’s 2024:
Being more reluctant to chase may have resulted in Realmuto taking more pitches for strikes at the corners and the top of the zone. It is hypothetically possible to cut down on chases without a corresponding decrease in the number of pitches taken for strikes at the edges of the zone, but it’s not easy.
So far, the results of Realmuto’s new approach are mixed. The increased walk rate is a real plus, but his .231/.315/.338 line isn’t great by his standards. Still, there’s plenty of time left in the season (contra the title; I needed a walk pun and I had already used “walk hard” for a recap). Realmuto may further refine his plate approach, hopefully keeping the gains in the art of chase avoidance while improving his ability to recognize which pitches are at the zone’s corners. And of course, some of what we’ve seen from him so far could be the results of small sample size. But for the moment, keep on walkin’.