Don’t let others tell you, uh, otherwise
Analysis in the offseason can be interesting. Most of the time, the public analysis that goes on is top of the scale. There are a lot of people that do excellent work hashing out why things happen in the game, the reasoning behind decisions that are made on the field and dissecting what makes the great players in the game so great. However, it can be difficult to know each and every team’s strengths and weaknesses without watching them on a daily basis. So when things are written about such flaws in a team, it is correct to be skeptical.
Take this piece for example. One thing that would be a weak spot for each team that considers themselves contenders. After all, weak spots for noncontending teams should be easy to spot. Look for a weak spot on the Rockies and <gestures wildly at everything about that organization>. For contenders, it’s much more interesting to point at flaws.
These things that will hinder the contenders are based on projections, so there can’t be too much read into it, but hey. It’s the offseason and we’re bored over here.
For the Phillies, the flaw on the team was identified as “outfield defense.” To wit:
The Phillies may have already made their move when they decided to sign Max Kepler to a one-year deal. That gives them three capable offensive corner outfielders in Kepler, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos…[t]he problem is defense. Over the past three years, Castellanos has been one of the worst three defenders in the outfield no matter which defensive metric you use to appraise him.
There is a fair argument here. If we’re to use FRV (Fielding Run Value, as defined on Baseball Savant), Castellanos was atrocious last year. In fact, using that same statistic for all qualified fielders and he registered as the absolute worst defender in the game at any position. That’s not an opinion either; that’s a fact backed up by data. While his bat does still hold value on a team that needs said value, his glove would probably work best were it removed from a game as soon as possible.
That’s where the article makes its next point.
But would a player like Kiké Hernández make more sense? He’s more of a sure thing offensively and rated as a positive defensively at all of his positions. He could come into games late to spell Castellanos and keep the outfield defense above water, and he’d generally be available at any position should the need arise.
Ah yes, perhaps the real reason why we have this article.
Signing Kike Hernandez just to improve the outfield defense would not be the best usage of allocated funds the team has currently available to them. The article is quick to point that out, too.
The only problem would be that any dollar they spend on Hernández will cost them double due to their luxury tax situation. Might be worth it, though, to round out that bench.
If we’re talking about holes that still exist on the roster, the outfield defense in particular is going to be just fine. It’s probably not even near the top of theoretical holes the team has, the biggest of which could be debated endlessly. Brandon Marsh will shift to a near full-time role in center field and he has shown that he can handle the position with aplomb. We are unable to know how Max Kepler will handle left field on a full-time basis being as how he has never played there, but in center and right field over his career, he has yet to post a FRV number that is in the negative. Until he proves otherwise, we should be able to safely assume that he will at least be average in left field.
That’s a fine outfield defense.
Castellanos will be an issue. He has already been an issue in the outfield and yet the Phillies have managed just fine with him there. Might they consider getting him out of there for a defensive replacement more often? That’s a possibility, particularly if Johan Rojas remains on the roster. Late in games, there is a world where Marsh moves to left field, Rojas roams center and Kepler goes to right. That’s quite the good defensive alignment when the team needs it. It also douses the need to acquire someone else like Hernandez, who would likely cost them double whatever it is he would need to be signed for.
Now, signing Hernandez for overall bench purposes? That’s something to discuss. Signing Hernandez to simply upgrade the outfield defense? Not really necessary.