Let’s rank some of the players
The baseball playoffs confound analysis. The sample sizes are way too small, and there’s too much that’s impossible for anyone outside the clubhouses to know, from who has an undisclosed injury or a cold to how players—or managers, or umpires—will deal with hostile crowds and October intensity. All this is doubly true when you’re considering teams that share deep knowledge and mutual contempt, as is the case with the Phillies and Mets.
They are also more evenly matched than you probably think. The Phillies’ actual record was 95-67; their Pythagorean record, or expected results based on runs scored and allowed, was 92-70. That’s not appreciably different from the Mets’ real-world 89-73 mark, or their 88-74 Pythag. And even that obscures how much better the Mets performed through the last four months: from June 1 on, they went 65-40 while the Phillies, coming down from a blazing first two months, went 55-49.
So it’s a coin flip, because all playoff series are coin flips. Except they’re not: the two teams play each series only once, and individual performances determine the outcome. With this in mind, I decided to try an exercise: “draft” the 20 players I think have the best chance to help their team win this five-game clash. This isn’t a franchise draft or a full-season draft: it’s a ranking of players based on their expected roles over the next week, their recent and relevant statistics, and whatever irrelevant and irrational junk—reliever trauma dating back to 1993, overexposure to Mets fans from a decade living in Queens, unrelated anxiety about world events—is bouncing around between my ears.
If it matters (it doesn’t), the 20 include 11 Phillies and nine Mets. Six of the first seven are Phillies, which is probably just my bias. But as noted, I think there are the first three, the next ten, and then everybody else. Would love to hear where I’m wrong in the comments.
1. Zack Wheeler, SP
This one is pretty self-explanatory, right? He’s the best pitcher in the series, can go twice if necessary, and was dominant at home this year. If you want to nitpick, he hasn’t been quite as good against the Mets as his overall numbers. But it’s Zack Wheeler in the playoffs. I feel pretty confident that he’s the single most likely guy to shape how the NLDS goes.
2. Francisco Lindor, SS
It’s a close call between him and Harper, but Lindor gets the nod for playing a more important position, and playing it well, and hitting out of his mind (.306/.368/.575) during the second half as the Mets rose from irrelevance to “plucky underdog despite a $300 million-plus payroll.”
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
The surest future Hall of Famer on either roster, Harper is building a legend with his October work for the Phillies. He was sneaky-excellent in September too, hitting .315/.394/.544 including a couple big games against the Mets. Did the week off help his elbow, or mess with his timing?
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH
I saw a big gap between the top three players and everyone else. You probably could talk me into almost any order for these next ten players. I have Schwarber here as the best pure power hitter in the series, a guy who’s always a threat to give the Phils a quick 1-0 lead. He has 20 career playoff home runs in 259 plate appearances.
5. Aaron Nola, SP
Neither Wheeler nor Nola have great numbers against the Mets this season. For his career, Nola has been good-not-great facing this division rival, with a 3.46 ERA. But he won’t lose his composure for Game Three, and he’s a good bet to give the Phillies at least 5-6 strong innings. Shortening the game will be vital for both teams.
6. Trea Turner, SS
For a superstar, Turner is surprisingly high-variability. We saw it last October, when he was an unstoppable force in the NLDS and then suddenly helpless with the pennant on the line. He can do so many things to help win a game that I think he’s worth this high selection.
7. Jeff Hoffman, RP
Is this Phillies homerism? Maybe. Relief pitchers are inherently untrustworthy: see both closers in the instant-classic first game of the Mets-Braves doubleheader last Monday when New York won its playoff berth, and again Thursday night when the Mets rallied off Devin Williams to survive and advance. Hoffman was shredded by the Nationals last weekend. I still think he’s the best reliever in this series, which isn’t to say I won’t be hyperventilating when he takes the hill.
8. Pete Alonso, 1B
Alonso doesn’t want his time in New York to end. Obviously he turned the Wild Card series with his late heroics against the Brewers, raising the Mets’ win probability by about 70 percent with one swing. Phillies fans know this player and this type: the guy who can be ice cold for a month, then single-handedly carry you for a week. Let’s hope it’s not this next week.
9. Matt Vientos, 3B
If we did this again in two years, Vientos might be much higher on this list. He’s a complete hitter who’s still getting better. The Phillies have handled him this year (.225/.296/.375), but he’ll get his at some point.
10. Brandon Nimmo, LF
Another complete player who can win with patience, power, speed, and defense. He had a terrible second half (.190/.277/.319) and mostly did not hit the Phillies (.173/.218/.385, though with three home runs), but his at-bat against Williams right before Alonso’s home run showed what Nimmo can do in a vital moment.
11. J.T. Realmuto, C
The former BCIB (Best Catcher in Baseball) is no longer that. JT’s steals/attempts totals over the past four seasons: 13/16, 21/22, 16/21, 2/4. Otherwise, his offensive game was slightly better in 2024 than the previous season, and his injuries and resultant lower usage could have him a bit fresher for October.
12. Jose Iglesias, IF
Iglesias compiled his 3.1 bWAR, third-highest on the Mets, in only 85 games. At age 34, he turned in a campaign that was comfortably the best of his 14-year major league career, which includes two seasons in which he didn’t appear at the highest level. He shouldn’t be among the top 20 drafted players from these two teams. I just worry that he might be the guy whose name we’re cursing over beers thinking about this series ten years from now.
13. Jose Quintana, SP
Is this recency bias? Probably. But watching Quintana stymie the Brewers was like a replay of the deeply unpleasant first five-plus innings of the 2022 Phillies’ playoff opener, when then-Cardinal Quintana had them off balance and flailing. My not particularly insightful overall take on this series is that the Phillies have a big pitching advantage, which they could well squander if the offense does its occasional disappearing act. As a guy who lives at the edge of the strike zone, Quintana is almost lab-designed to trigger their worst chase tendencies.
14. Cristopher Sanchez, SP
An X-factor. The Phillies’ fourth starter will get the ball for Game Two on Sunday. We know how tough he is at home, and he’s handled the Mets in three starts this season (17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA). But this will be by an order of magnitude the biggest moment of his baseball career. Is he ready for it? And as he approaches twice the number of innings he threw in 2023, will the workload catch up to him?
15. Matt Strahm, RP
Hoffman’s southpaw sidekick, Strahm will come in for a big spot and, unlike José Alvarado, it won’t matter whether the batter in front of him bats lefty or righty. He’s unflappable, and this won’t be new for him. The Mets have shown a recent gift for turning one- or two-run innings into game-busters; Strahm’s job will be to stop that from happening.
16. Sean Manaea, SP
Manaea was remarkably consistent this year. His first half numbers: 6-3, 3.46. After the break, he went 6-3 and the ERA rose all the way to 3.48. The Phillies knocked him around in one June start; in two others, he went a combined 13 innings and gave up just seven hits and four runs.
17. Edwin Diaz, RP
When Mets manager Carlos Mendoza summoned Diaz Thursday night to face the Brewers in the bottom of the 7th with two runs already in, it seemed like too little, too late. But he held Milwaukee right there, needing 39 pitches to get five outs—and he got the win when the Mets erupted in the 9th . Four of his last five appearances have been for more than one inning, two against the Phillies in their September series. So if nothing else they’ve seen him recently.
18. Orion Kerkering, RP
The last time Kerkering faced the Mets, he gave up two hits, a walk, and an HBP as New York scored three runs off him to secure a win they desperately needed. That ended a streak of 14 scoreless appearances for the rookie, including three against the Mets. Was a bad day, or do they now have his number?
19. Starling Marte, RF
After a terrible 2023 season, Marte looked like he might join the long list of recent Mets mistakes in free agency. But he bounced back this year as the all-around threat he’s always been, particularly on the bases where he stole 16 while being caught just once. His lifetime numbers in the playoffs aren’t great, with a .193/.266/.281 slash line, but he’s another guy in this Mets lineup who does many things well.
20. Alec Bohm, 3B
Bohm racked up most of his 3.0 bWAR this year in his superb first half, when he put up a .295/.348/.482 line, knocked in 70 runs, and made the all-star team. Like so many Phillies, he badly trailed off later in the season, with an anemic .170/.204/.298 triple slash in September. Nor has the NLDS been kind to Bohm, who skipped the party against the Braves the last two years with an aggregate .143/.242/.143 performance in 33 plate appearances. Perhaps he’s due.
Phillies players I’m most likely to regret not including:
Bryson Stott, 2B.
Six months ago, nobody would have tapped Jose Iglesias as a preferable option to Stott, who was coming off an outstanding first full season. He could make a difference this week in the field, where he remains a plus glove, and on the bases, where his 32 steals led the team
Edmundo Sosa, IF.
Sosa could start over Stott against Mets lefties Quintana, Manaea, and David Peterson. He hit .284/.347/.514 facing southpaws.
Ranger Suarez, SP.
A postseason warrior who was the early favorite for the NL Cy Young Award, Suarez got hurt in July and hasn’t looked like himself since returning. He hasn’t finished the 6 th inning since before the injury, and right now is a five-and-dive starter.
Nick Castellanos, OF.
Another streaky hitter who if nothing else will answer the bell, having played all 162. But Casty’s particularly aggressive approach seems particularly ill-suited for the likes of Quintana.
Jose Alvarado, RP.
The ex-closer is now no higher than fifth in the bullpen pecking order. His role now is to handle lefties, but the Mets lineup is the baseball equivalent of Americans for Prosperity; Jesse Winker is their only lefty bat of note.
Carlos Estevez, RP.
My personal nightmare guy in this series, given that 1) the Mets are as unkillable in late games as any horror movie franchise slasher; 2) Estevez pitched in really good luck for the Phils with a FIP more than a run higher than his ERA; and 3) unlike every other reliever on this list, he averages less than a strikeout per inning, so he can’t just reach back and blow guys away.
Mets guys I’m most likely to regret not including:
Luis Severino, SP.
I dunno. The Phillies saw him twice in September, and both times he pitched six innings and allowed three runs. The teams split the two games. He was tough in the opener against the Brewers, but it’s just tough for me to see him either dominating or melting down.
Jesse Winker, DH.
The most hated man in Milwaukee, if this week is any indication, Winker has legit power and can take a walk. As noted, he’s the Mets’ only left-handed bat of note, so he’ll probably see Alvarado.
Jose Butto, RP.
Butto had a bad day to have a bad day in the finale against the Brewers, before Diaz and the bats bailed him out. But he has strikeout stuff and held hitters to a composite .167/.287/.276 line this year.
Luisangel Acuña, IF.
Used solely as a defensive replacement in the Brewers series, this potential “wrong brother” was a late-season hero for the Mets as Lindor battled back woes. Those sometimes recur, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the 22 year old come up in a big spot or two.
Phil Maton, RP.
The Mets might have unlocked something with Phil Maton, the brother of former Phillie Nick “Wolfy” Maton. Over 31 games with New York, he posted an ERA+ of 159. Or it could be a fluke of small sample size, because relief pitchers.
Kodai Senga, SP.
The surprise Game One starter is a great option for the Mets given their staff depletion, and at full strength he might be in the top five of this list. But he made one start all season, and his likely maximum impact would be going through the Phillies’ lineup once in the opener and maybe a relief appearance later in the series.