The Notes: What we Know About the Offseason + One Giant Theory

Dave Dombrowski has said some things and reporters have reported some other stuff. Let’s figure it out.

It’s been nearly a month and a half since the New York Mets eliminated the Phillies in four games. It’s only been three weeks since the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series over the New York Yankees. The baseball offseason is boring.

Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has said a few things about the offseason plan. You’ve probably heard the term “open-minded” a million times already.

So let’s go through what we know about the Phillies’ offseason and decide a giant theory about what plan A is for the offseason.

Bullpen

During the end-of-season press conference in October, Dombrowski said the Phillies could pay Jeff Hoffman or Carlos Estévez but not both.

The Phillies have a history of paying relievers up to a certain amount through trade or free agency. Dombrowski has targeted one-year deals for players like Craig Kimbrel, Brad Hand, and Jeurys Familia.

He also gave José Alvarado an extension for nine million a season and signed Matt Strahm for two years at seven and a half. There is a track record for paying established relievers but Hoffman or Estévez will likely cost slightly more than what the Phillies have done in the past. This offseason also feels like the Phillies will move differently than past trends.

Hoffman’s market will be interesting, some teams might want to make him a starting pitcher and there is a history of success. Reynaldo López was great with the Braves last season and Seth Lugo worked for the Padres in 2023. Hoffman last started a game in 2022 and made 11 starts as recently as 2021.

Dombrowski has said the Phillies are looking for at least one more high-leverage arm, preferably a right-hander. He has a history of targeting players with prior closing experience.

Dombrowski has acquired the following players with at least 15 or more career saves

• Brandon Kintzler
• Archie Bradley
• José Alvarado
• Brad Hand
• Jeurys Familia
• David Robertson
• Craig Kimbrel
• Gregory Soto
• Carlos Estévez

Free Agents who make sense in this bucket are

• Kirby Yates
• David Robertson (could you imagine?)
• Kenley Jansen
• Clay Holmes
• Blake Treinen
• José Leclerc
• Paul Sewald

Outfield

Dombrowski has said multiple times the Phillies will look for outfield help. He said in October, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh were pieces but did not say the same about Johan Rojas or Austin Hays.

At the GM Meetings, he said an upgrade in the outfield was “the obvious way” to upgrade the roster. He again said Castellanos and Marsh were pieces that were “settled”. The Phillies will target outfield upgrades this winter.

Does this mean the end of Johan Rojas as a Phillie? No, but they need to upgrade from his spot for next season.

Outfield upgrades are going to be tricky. John Middleton, the Phillies managing partner and CEO said the Phillies will probably not win the battle for Juan Soto. The remaining free-agent options are tricky.

Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez received qualifying offers, Jurickson Profar was great this past season but is almost 32 and doesn’t have a great track record of success. Tyler O’Neill carries massive swing-and-miss issues and has only one season of 120 games or more.

The trade market might be the more viable place to look for upgrades but it’s unclear who is available. Luis Robert Jr. is still a Chicago White Sox but was so bad after the trade deadline that he might not be a viable option.

The Phillies will likely have to get creative.

A Shake-up

Dombrowski has stated multiple times that the Phillies need to be open-minded. He said it at the end-of-season press conference and the GM meetings.

This probably means a different offseason than anything Dombrowski has done in the past here. There will likely be changes outside of a plug-and-play option like Trea Turner. This isn’t an offseason just about bringing back Aaron Nola. There might be a shakeup to the core of this roster.

There is only so much change the Phillies can make. The lineup has five players making at least $19 million a season who probably won’t command much trade value.

If they trade from the team control side then things will be tricky. Bryson Stott wasn’t great last season but is the most valuable defensive player on the infield. It only makes sense to trade him if you plan on moving Trea Turner to second base. They don’t.

Brandon Marsh makes sense as a trade candidate but the Phillies have already said they needed an outfielder. If you trade Marsh then you need two.

The one player that makes the most sense is Alec Bohm. Replacing Johan Rojas probably isn’t enough for Dombrowski to talk about being open-minded and the Phillies have other lineup problems.

It isn’t just me coming up with this idea:

Bohm is 28 years old, has two remaining years of team control, and is coming off an all-star season. He also was benched in game two of the NLDS and his comments after the series probably didn’t help his chances.

However, how are they going to replace Bohm? The simple (possibly the correct) answer is Alex Bregman but you might need more options. Ha-Seong Kim is more of a shortstop than a third baseman and the next best free agent option might be Yoán Moncada.

Maybe the Phillies look to the trade market or maybe they hang onto Bohm even after the trade rumors. That doesn’t feel likely though.

A Giant Theory on what Plan A is

Remember that this is all a theory and I’m only using public reporting or my brain. Public information can be very wrong and my brain is even worse.

I think the team is gunning for Garrett Crochet. He is very clearly available and will allow the Phillies to start merging into the future with a true identity. It will almost certainly cost them Aidan Miller and multiple top prospects to make the trade but Crochet is worth it.

Crochet had a higher strike-out rate than anyone on the Phillies last season and a lower walk rate than Aaron Nola. 146 innings may not seem like a lot but that’s a good sign for someone transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. He made 32 starts and stayed healthy. Good signs.

Will the Phillies be able to pull off this trade? Probably not and if they do then the trade would almost certainly cost Aidan Miller and multiple top prospects but Crochet is the kind of bet you make.

He also wants a contract extension which is good news for the Phillies. You’re not just paying for two years of team control but whatever you end up paying Crochet in the future.

Trading your best young position player prospects with a lineup that’s getting older is risky but you would also go into post-Wheeler with Crochet, Cristopher Sánchez, and Andrew Painter in their primes with Aaron Nola still in the rotation as an innings eater. You can deal with an aging lineup with that pitching staff.

I think they’re gunning for Alex Bregman. This is just a hunch since there isn’t much public information that connects the Phillies to Bregman but it makes a lot of sense if the Phillies trade Miller.

Bohm is being shopped in trades but only a few reliable upgrades are available. Bregman is one of them and would give the Phillies the plate discipline they need. He posted a walk rate of 10% or better from 2018-2023. It declined this year but there is reason to believe this is an outlier.

He won’t bring much swing and miss, good pull-side power that Bohm hasn’t consistently showcased, and would offer more lineup versatility. They could move Schwarber out of the leadoff spot or Rob Thomson could hit Bregman cleanup. He would also give them a more reliable glove at third base which helps Trea Turner a bit at short.

If you don’t have a young infielder like Miller anymore because you traded him for one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball, you are probably ok with giving Bregman a long-term contract. These are safe bets to make and the roster would be a lot better because of it.

What do you do with Ranger Suárez? The best route is probably flipping him for a corner outfielder to pave a path for Painter. Suárez is a free agent after the season and an extension is hard to imagine after a Crochet trade. It makes the most logical sense to try and make a trade to improve the lineup.

Would Baltimore want to if they strike out on front-line starters in free agency? Boston? The Chicago Cubs? All carry multiple outfielders and could use starting pitching.

Again this is all just a giant theory and probably doesn’t have a great chance of happening. This almost sounds like an MLB The Show offseason that doesn’t get pulled off in real life. However, all of these are obtainable options on their own.