Sunshine and rainbows? Phillies vs. Rays series preview

Faced with a mediocre opponent, it would be nice if the Phillies resumed winning games

Everything was going so well on Friday. After demolishing the Marlins, the Phillies had won six games in a row and looked like they were ready to just cruise through the remainder of the regular season. And then, they received two poor starting pitching performances and suffered consecutive losses to the Marlins. Because this is the Phillies, and they apparently don’t do the whole cruising through the regular season thing.

So, it probably won’t be all sunshine and rainbows the rest of the way. But with a three-game set against a mediocre Rays team, they can make things a lot more sunshiny and rainbowy, at least for a few days.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 71-72, Fourth place in American League East (Eleven games back)

The manager

Kevin Cash is in his tenth season as Rays manager. That kind of staying power is impressive considering the Rays lack of willingness to spend, but it’s hard to say Cash hasn’t been successful. Barring a miracle, this will be the Rays’ first year out of the playoffs since 2018. He’s won two Manager of the Year awards and took the league to the World Series in 2020, if we want to count that as a real season.

At some point, they’ll probably blame him for not making a winner out of the scraps he’s given, but for now, everyone seems content with the situation.

The last time they met

The Phillies travelled to Tampa for a three-game series in July 2023. In the first game, Aaron Nola outdueled former rotation-mate Zach Eflin. In the second, a late Nick Castellanos home run helped power the Phillies to victory. And in the finale, the Phillies scored two eleventh inning runs to complete the sweep.

What’s the deal with the Rays?

The Rays have committed to mediocrity this season, never moving more than five games above or below .500. They currently sit one game under the mark thanks to winning two out of three against the Orioles.

The Rays are actually lucky to be anywhere near .500 considering they have one of the worst offenses in the majors. They rank above only two other major league teams in runs scored, and one of those is the White Sox. Their best offensive player was third baseman Isaac Paredes, but they traded him to the Cubs in July.

In theory, this is a lineup that the Phillies’ pitching staff should be able to handle. On the other hand, we spent the past two days watching someone named Connor Norby demolish the ball, so I can’t take anything for granted. Players like Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are still capable of doing some damage.

What about the pitching?

The Rays’ staff is nothing spectacular either. (You may be asking yourself: How are the Rays even a .500 team? And the answer is that they’re 26-17 in one-run games and have outperformed their Pythagorean record.)

The starters scheduled for this series are:

• Cole Sulser, a 34-year-old reliever who is serving as the first pitcher in an expected bullpen game.
• Taj Bradley, a second-year right-hander who has been awful since the end of July.
• Shane Baz, who has been solid in eleven starts since returning from Tommy John surgery that cost him his 2023 season.

The Rays’ bullpen might get a lot of work, and that’s generally been a strong unit this year, but they’re currently without closer Pete Fairbanks who is out with an injury.

Remember him? Probably not.

With Fairbanks out, some of the save opportunities have gone to former Phillie Garrett Cleavinger. You may not remember him, as he appeared in one game for the 2020 Phillies, and served up a home run to the very first batter he faced. (He fit in just fine with the 2020 bullpen.)

The following offseason, the Phillies sent him to Los Angeles as part of a three-team trade with the Rays that netted them a lefthanded reliever named Jose Alvarado.

Never Always trade with the Rays?

There was a sentiment across baseball that you should never trade with the Rays, because if their developmental system couldn’t succeed with a player, yours won’t either. However, the Phillies may be the exception to that rule since they’ve acquired Jose Alvarado and Cristopher Sanchez and developed them into good players.

As recently as last year, people were claiming that the Rays really pulled one over on the Phillies by getting infielder Curtis Mead in exchange for Sanchez.

As Mead struggles to hit major league pitching, while Sanchez has developed into an All-Star starting pitcher, sentiment about that deal has shifted. Sanchez will get the start on Monday night, so the Rays will have a chance to see exactly what they gave away.

The Mark Brendanawicz award

Grady Sizemore

Remember when the Phillies gave former Indians star Grady Sizemore a chance in 2014 and 2015 to see if the handsome former All-Star could regain his form after coming back from an injury? He wasn’t successful in that endeavor, and midway through the 2015 season, the Phillies released him.

The Rays apparently decided that they could succeed where the Phillies failed and picked him up for the rest of the season. He was actually decent for them, putting up a .746 OPS in 58 games. However, his defense which won him a Gold Glove, had deteriorated greatly.

That was it for Sizemore’s career. He spent a year out of baseball before beginning a second career in the front office and coaching. In August of this year, he was named interim manager of the White Sox, which Sizemore probably hopes to one day parlay into an actual major league managing job.

Non-Phillies thought

Since I didn’t write a preview last week, I wasn’t able to make an Eagles prediction, and I’m sure you were all greatly disappointed by that.

Prior to Friday’s game, I tried to guess the Eagles’ record using my ultra-scientific method: I started with the fact that they won 11 games last year. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell points out to anyone who will listen, they had unsustainably good luck in close games, which tends to level out from year to year. However, they also had to deal with a Super Bowl hangover, the “gauntlet” schedule, and some very bad coaching.

This season, despite losing a couple of franchise greats, the roster still looks to be improved overall. Factor in improved coaching and a more manageable schedule, and I’ll predict a one-game improvement to 12-5. However, I also thought they’d lose to the Packers, so I’m tempted to add another win, but they’ll probably drop a game I thought they’d win.

Closing thought

The two losses to the Marlins will be an annoying footnote if the Phillies resume their winning ways in this series. With key series against the Mets and Brewers looming, the Phillies would be well suited to take this opportunity to give themselves additional breathing room.