A couple of weeks back, my colleague wrote that Phillies trade-deadline acquisition Carlos Estevez should be treated as something more than a rental. And he was right–with free agency looming, Estevez has proven himself to be an effective reliever in the home stretch.
The Phillies would be smart to sign him this offseason.
But that doesn’t mean that he should be their closer come October.
The decision, in my mind, comes down to trust. Trust in the player, trust in their stuff, and trust in their makeup in the biggest moments. Carlos Estevez is undoubtedly a very, very good Major League pitcher. He performed well enough with the Angels that the Phillies sent two of their upper-tier prospects for him, and he has continued his breakout season in Philadelphia. With the Phillies, he’s gone six for eight in save situations, posting a 1.93 ERA with a 3-1 record over 18.2 innings pitched. Perfectly adequate.
However, watching Estevez’s outings does not impart the same positive feelings as his numbers in the box score. His stuff, to be frank, is underwhelming. He relies mainly on a 4-seam fastball that averages 96.7 mph and sits decidedly in the upper-mid (not upper) 90s. His second pitch changeup only sometimes moves, and he can only sometimes command well enough to use. His third pitch, a slider, is even more pedestrian. At 89.5 mph, it doesn’t carry the velocity of, say, a cutter, but it also doesn’t move half as much as the prototypical slider, with only 5.5 inches of horizontal break.
When Estevez locates with precision, he can be effective—but due to his somewhat pedestrian pitch arsenal, the margin of error is slim.
When he struggles, there are just as many balls as there are strikes, and hard contact is through the roof. Not to mention, swings and misses are down.
In many ways, Estevez reminds me of 2023’s Craig Kimbrel – both must function at the absolute highest of their abilities even to be effective. Kimbrel struggled down the stretch because he was tired – what resulted was an inability to find the zone, and when he did, all he could do was induce hard contact. Estevez struggles not because he is a bad or even average pitcher — he struggles because his stuff isn’t electric enough to overcome a lack of command.
However, This is not an argument for the Phillies to slot in whoever has the best stuff. Otherwise, Jose Alvarado would be the closer, and we all know how much of a heart attack every inning is with him. This is, however, a plea for Rob Thomson to consider shifting the closer role to other members of the bullpen. Jeff Hoffman — who has, in Estevez’s defense, been spottier over the past few weeks — possesses both the pure electricity and experience to close games in the postseason. Orion Kerkering has continued to be the gift that keeps on giving in his first full season, posting a 1.99 ERA in 58.2 innings pitched this year.
Both Hoffman and Kerkering operate on that edge of effectiveness, where even if their command is at 90% of what it can be, they can still get batters out because of their pure arm talent. Matt Strahm, although not a fireballer like Hoffman or Kerkering, has an arsenal that flummoxes even the best of hitters, notably Shohei Ohtani. Not to mention, the soft-spoken country boy might as well be a vampire–his blood runs ice cold when the pressure is the highest.
The Phillies, partly because of the addition of Estevez, have one of the best bullpens in baseball heading into the postseason. However, the fact that they are so talented shouldn’t inhibit pitchers other than Estevez from taking the reins in the 9th inning.
If anything, it should encourage Rob Thomson and his staff to share the love come closing time.
PHOTO: Gregory Fisher/Imagn Images
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