Phillies Final NLDS Pitcher Decision Hangs in Balance

Choosing the Philadelphia Phillies final pitcher for the National League Division Series depends on a few factors. The Phillies’ opponent has not been determined yet. Facing the Milwaukee Brewers compared or the New York Mets may sway the decision based on matchup considerations. Regardless right-hander Taijuan Walker should not be on the Phillies postseason roster for any series. Left-hander Tyler Gilbert who otherwise may have been in consideration is not eligible for the NLDS roster.

Gilbert was optioned on September 29 and as a result, the 15-day waiting period does not expire before the start of the NLDS. Nick Nelson is also a candidate but it is unlikely that he makes the NLDS roster. Nelson could be a candidate for later rounds if the Phillies advance beyond the NLDS.

Choosing the Phillies Final NLDS Pitcher

Kolby Allard

Left-hander Kolby Allard is poised to secure the Phillies’ final NLDS pitching spot, particularly if they face a team that would struggle against a fourth left-handed reliever.

Allard’s 2024 stats:

2-0 record

5.00 ERA

23 strikeouts in 7 appearances (4 starts)

4.76 FIP

121 ERA+

As a reliever:

4.50 ERA

3.77 FIP

As a starter:

5.29 ERA

5.34 FIP

Allard’s versatility and experience in long relief duties make him an ideal fit. Notably:

Pitched multiple innings in every MLB outing this season

Proven ability to bridge the gap between starters and late-inning relievers

Allard’s splits and performance profile suggest he can effectively handle the role, providing the Phillies with a reliable left-handed option out of the bullpen.

Max Lazar

Max Lazar is another candidate for the role, especially if the Phillies are up against a team that would benefit from having an additional right-handed bullpen arm. This season, the right-hander posted a 0-0 record with a 4.61 ERA and nine strikeouts in 11 games for the Phillies. Additionally, he had a 4.19 FIP and 111 ERA in the majors. Lazar exclusively made relief appearances for the Phillies this season, unlike the other candidates on the list. In his first seven appearances of the season, Lazar did not allow an earned run.

However, in the remaining four appearances, he allowed seven earned runs in 7 1/3 innings pitched. Lazar also pitched multiple innings on three occasions in the majors this season.

Spencer Turnbull

Right-hander Spencer Turnbull is the leading candidate to secure the Phillies’ final NLDS pitching spot, contingent upon his recovery from injury.

Turnbull’s 2024 stats:

3-0 record

2.65 ERA

58 strikeouts in 17 outings (seven starts)

3.85 FIP

64 ERA+

Recent developments:

Pitched one inning in an intrasquad game on October 2

Phillies manager Rob Thomson expressed reservations about Turnbull’s readiness (via Corey Seidman, NBC Sports Philadelphia)

Despite Thomson’s caution, Turnbull remains in contention. Notably:

The NLDS roster allows for 12 pitchers, creating an opening for Turnbull and either Allard or Bailey Falter/Lazar

If the Phillies advance, Turnbull’s readiness could be reassessed for later postseason rounds.

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