NL West Preview

The Dodgers spending is good for baseball. *Ducks*

The NL West begins the National League’s gauntlet and features four teams pushing chips in to win for 2025. Hundreds of millions of dollars were given out in free agency, front office, and coaching changes happened, and there is ample pressure to win. While the NL West seems to have a predetermined winner, there is pressure for three teams to make deep postseason runs in October.

Colorado Rockies: 60-65 Wins

The Colorado Rockies aren’t good. The lineup isn’t good, the starting pitching is bad, but maybe the bullpen is interesting? It’s bleak.

Starting with the bullpen, Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik are two important players in the Rockies plans. Halvorsen came up in August and immediately looked like their best arm. His fastball sits at 100 mph and his secondary pitches got whiffs. He looks the part of a future late-inning reliever. Plus, he’s only 25 years old.

Vodnik is another potential late-inning arm the Rockies need to work. He sits 98 mph and gets a lot of ground balls but throws his fastball way too much. Opponents struggled against Vodnik’s slider and changeup while hammering his fastball. The Rockies see this and have him throw his fastball 63% of the time.

There are other building block players on the Rockies but not enough after four years of rebuilding. Brenton Doyle however does look like a solid center fielder for them though. After a .593 OPS in 2023, Doyle came back and made big changes to his approach. He cut his strikeout rate by nearly ten percent, walked a little more, and had more barrel control. A .763 OPS with 15 OAA on defense makes him one of the most exciting center fielders in baseball.

Ezequiel Tovar also looks the part of a future piece. At 23 years old, Tovar played elite shortstop defense and generated more barrel control on offense which led to a .764 OPS. His approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired and limits his ceiling but he should at least be a solid role-player for Colorado in the future.

Ryan Feltner is a building block for their rotation and is one of the few Rockies pitchers who aren’t overusing their fastball. He made 30 starts last season and pitched to a 4.49 ERA. Solid numbers, especially when you account for Coors Field. He needs to fix his slider though which allowed a .523 slugging and a 22.6% whiff rate. It’s not good enough.

The rest of the roster is confusing. There are too many veteran players the Rockies have chosen to keep around. Ryan McMahon, Jacob Stallings, Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Kinley… the list goes on.

Phillies Centric Prediction: Bryce Harper takes Jake Bird deep.

4. San Francisco Giants (79-84 wins)

The Giants made moves this off-season but the big picture seems bleak. They started by firing President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi and replacing him with Buster Posey. Zaidi was never able to develop talent or sign star hitters and made the playoffs one time in six seasons. His tenure wasn’t great.

However, the decision to hire Posey is baffling. Posey has zero front office experience and there is little evidence he has the background in player development or statistics to run a Major League Organization.

His first off-season was rather unspectacular. They added Willy Adames to be their starting shortstop but failed to replace Blake Snell as the rotation looks mediocre outside of Logan Webb.

Webb is a great headliner for any rotation. Since 2021, Webb has ranked fifth in fWAR, second in innings, and fifth in FIP. The rest of the rotation starts with 42-year-old Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray who struggled in seven starts last season, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison.

Harrison is only 23 years old and has shown flashes of brilliance but needs a more reliable secondary pitch. His slurve and changeup don’t produce enough whiffs and got hit around last season.

Hayden Birdsong is another big-time prospect the Giants are counting on. In 16 starts last season, Birdsong showed he has the stuff to strike out plenty of hitters but needs much better command.

If the young arms take steps forward then that would relieve some of the low-ceiling veteran issues. Still, it’s tough to see anyone giving the Giants Blake Snell production.

The lineup has plenty of interesting hitters. Matt Chapman did a much better job of cutting down strikeouts without sacrificing too much power. Adames is a strong power hitter and Jung Hoo Lee showed off amazing contact skills in his first season of pro-ball. LeMonte Wade Jr. is a solid modern-day leadoff option.

Heliot Ramos became a core player for the Giants’ present and future. His power ceiling is limitless and he figured out how to have much better barrel control. Ramos will have to prove his breakout was real and if the approach issues limit his ceiling but he should be a solid middle-of-the-lineup hitter for San Francisco.

The rest of the lineup isn’t great. Tyler Fitzgerald will be their everyday second baseman and had a 132 wRC+ last year but it comes with major question marks. His xwOBA was 58 points worse than his actual wOBA, he carries major strikeout issues, and doesn’t hit the ball hard. This seems like a player who is primed to crash out in 2025.

Patrick Bailey is a great backstop defensively and gives you enough offense to be a positive contributor but isn’t particularly helping you offensively. The DH situation looks like a mess and Mike Yastrzemski is still here.

They have some solid hitters but need more difference-makers. Those guys have turned down their money but the Giants haven’t helped themselves either.

The bullpen features plenty of guys with back-end stuff. Ryan Walker became an elite reliever last season and took over closer duties for Camilo Doval at the end of the season. Tyler Rogers is still limiting barrels at 34 years old, Doval struggled last season but still has the stuff to bounce back, Randy Rodríguez was nasty last year, and Erik Miller should be a strong left-handed option. It’s without question their most complete and potentially dominant unit.

The Giants could be good, but things have to go their way. They are likely still a team with a ceiling too limited in a stacked National League to compete.

Phillies Centric Prediction: Nick Castellanos hits two doubles off Robbie Ray

3. San Diego Padres (85-90 wins)

The Padres off-season included ownership, payroll, and roster drama. Joe Musgrove is out for the season, Kyle Higashioka is gone, Jurickson Profar is gone, and Ha-Seong Kim left. Their window as a contender is on the verge of being shut.

However, the Padres still carry plenty of top-end players which should keep the floor relatively high. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a much better 2024 season and is entering the prime of his career. Jackson Merrill is coming off a 5 fWAR season in center field and Manny Machado is still a star. Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish make up a very strong top of the rotation. The bullpen features Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada to finish ball games.

The problem is that they downgraded at plenty of other spots that were used to round out a contender last season.

Jurickson Profar had a 139 wRC+ last season and was a fantastic presence at the top or middle of the Padres lineup. He’s being replaced with a Jason Heyward and Connor Joe platoon. Kyle Higashioka hit 17 home runs and was a plus bat as a catcher. He was replaced by Elias Díaz and Luis Campusano. They signed Jose Iglesias to replace Ha-Seong Kim. Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart are downgrades in the back end of their rotation. Tanner Scott signed with the Dodgers.

That is a lot of turnover of key players and the replacements are old veterans. The ceiling of their production is not the same as last season.

All of this comes back to the Xander Bogaerts contract. The Padres tried to sign Aaron Judge and Trea Turner that offseason but both players signed somewhere else for less money. They then settled on Bogaerts who just hasn’t given them close to the 280 million dollar player they paid for at the time.

Bogaerts is coming off a season where he had a 95 wRC+ and 2.0 bWAR. He needs to be closer to 4 or 5 WAR with that kind of salary.

The Padres should still be a good team that competes for a wild card spot. Their top-end talent will give them a chance against almost anyone in a playoff series but they don’t have the same well-balanced roster they had a year ago.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Nick Pivetta throws a no-hitter.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-95 wins)

The Diamondbacks are coming off an active and interesting off-season. Corbin Burnes will catch all of the headlines for good reasons but the rest of their additions will come with interesting questions.

How much of a gap will exist between Joc Pederson and Pavin Smith? How much of a gap will there be between Josh Naylor and Christian Walker? What kind of adjustments will new pitching coach Brian Kaplan make?

All of these moves could end up going well and they need them to. The standards are different than they were a couple of years ago. The Diamondbacks made the World Series in 2023 and played like a 90-win team in 2024. The goal is to win a championship now.

The lineup feels a little light for a team with those goals however. Corbin Carroll had an up-and-down second season but had a .918 OPS in the final two months of 2024. Ketel Marte is the best second baseman in baseball and Josh Naylor should give them plenty of left-handed power. The rest is more fine than great.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is more of a league-average bat than middle of a lineup threat. Jake McCarthy had a solid year but might take a slight step back. Pavin Smith had a 142 wRC+ last season but in only 198 plate appearances. Eugenio Suárez has been a good right-handed hitter at third base but is also 33.

If someone like Smith can’t sustain success or someone like Gurriel or Suárez take steps back then the Diamondbacks will have to look for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter in August.

The pitching staff looks interesting even with a few back-end questions. Corbin Burnes has had a declining strikeout rate but has the contact management ability to survive and has pitched at least 193 innings each of the last three seasons.

Zac Gallen had a solid year and profiles more like a strong number-two than a one. Merrill Kelly is coming off a much worse 2024 and is 36 but is healthy now. Eduardo Rodriguez made just 10 starts last season and had an ERA over five.

Arizona carries two promising young starters who could take steps forward. Brandon Pfaadt took a step back in 2024 but was still an effective starter. His ERA was high but his FIP was more than a full run lower and he pitched 181.2 innings.

Pfaadt is still making adjustments. He changed his arm-slot a bit which should help his fastball get better results in 2025.

Ryne Nelson is another option who could establish himself in 2025. Nelson pitched 150.2 innings last year with a 4.24 ERA. He throws a lot of strikes but needs better secondary pitches. His highest whiff rate came from his changeup at 20.3%. That’s not good.

There is also the Jordan Montgomery elephant in the room. He allowed five runs in his first and only spring training start.

The bullpen shouldn’t have many problems finishing games. Justin Martinez looked fantastic in his rookie season and AJ Puk had a 1.30 ERA and 1.63 FIP after getting traded. Kevin Ginkel also had solid high-leverage innings last season.

The Diamondbacks should be a strong club overall but there are some concerns if the role players don’t step up. Will they get enough consistent starting pitching or will a hitter improve? Those are the new standards in the desert.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: They sweep the Phillies in Arizona

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-162 wins)

The Dodgers are the favorites to win the World Series. What a strong take that is.

But seriously, this team is good for many reasons.

Having the star power of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki helps but it’s how they win on every margin that stands out.

Tommy Edman was fantastic in the postseason and was a trade deadline pickup. Every year they bring in a reliever or two for cheap that pitches high-leverage innings. One year it was Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia. Anthony Banda and Michael Kopech did it last season. They have 11 pitchers on the injured list and they still carry strong depth.

The elephant in the room will be Ohtani’s contract, which helped lower ownership cash spending in the first ten years of the deal. It has made deferred money a major talking point as some competitive advantage in baseball.

The Dodgers have used deferred money in many of their contracts. Blake Snell has some, Tommy Edman, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernández all have taken some deferred money in their contracts but it isn’t some advantage the Dodgers have.

They do it because California has a high income tax rate and this is a way to circumvent it. The markets that have actual advantages play in lower or no-income tax states.

The Miami Marlins have a bigger advantage in free agency than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In a game where every team is trying to get cheaper or find market inefficiencies, Andrew Friedman has sought big free agents. This is fascinating because he is one of the founding fathers of Moneyball. He might not be Billy Beane but he was the President of the Tampa Bay Rays for a decade, including a World Series appearance in 2008.

There is a massive difference between Jerry Dipoto trying to win 54% of games every season while lowering payroll and someone like Friedman saying its ok to be irrational about free agents.

Maybe the new market inefficiency is just signing good players.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: the Phillies trade for David Bote