NL East Preview

Why did the Nationals get rid of their old city connect jerseys?

The preview series is almost over so instead of a normal introduction, here is one special thank you.

Joe Edinger has been helping me not look like an illiterate idiot while I’ve tried writing these out. These pieces are long, and not everyone is willing to sit through and read each one to edit out dumb mistakes. Thank you, Joe!

(I swear I didn’t add this in during the edit- Joe)

5. Miami Marlins (50-55 wins)

The Marlins are going to be bad this year. Really bad.

A lineup that already had major questions about its ability to score runs is dealing with injuries to some of their top run producers. Connor Norby, who broke out after getting traded to the fish suffered a left oblique injury and his timetable is TBD. Jesús Sánchez has an oblique strain and is going to miss the next four weeks.

Xavier Edwards had a 128 wRC+ last season but is a regression candidate for 2025. He does make a lot of contact to the entire field so expected results can be weird, but his xwOBA was 63 points lower than his actual wOBA. Griffin Conine is a regression candidate as a power-hitting corner outfielder. Jonah Bride’s 2024 looks like a Linsanity run too. The rest of the lineup probably isn’t going to hit either.

The pitching staff is certainly more interesting but comes with other issues. Sandy Alcantara returns from Tommy John surgery but is probably getting traded at the deadline. Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers will start the season on the injured list and Eury Pérez probably won’t return until mid-July.

Max Meyer could be a breakout candidate after what he has showed in spring training. He is throwing a sweeper this spring and debuted a sinker last season. Both should be promising against right-handed hitters. Meyer is also throwing a lot harder this spring.

The bullpen still has options like Calvin Faucher and Anthony Bender, but two of their best arms are already dealing with injuries. Andrew Nardi had lower-back problems in spring, and Declan Cronin will miss the first two weeks of the season with left hip discomfort.

It’s a roster in bad shape, and it will have the worst record in baseball for 2025. If injuries continue to pile up, this team could have 2024 Chicago White Sox issues.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Tyler Phillips saves 3 games for Miami.

4. Washington Nationals (73-78 wins)

The Nationals have plenty of things going for them in 2025. James Wood could break out into a star, Dylan Crews will play right field, Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell should give the lineup more pop, and Paul DeJong is a massive upgrade at third base.

This team also has things clearly standing in their way. The organization has not gotten the most out of MacKenzie Gore or CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz was one of the worst catchers in the sport last year, and it’s clear they’re very far behind from a data and analytics standpoint.

Their bullpen is clinging on to bad veteran options like Kyle Finnegan, Jorge López, and Colin Poche. Lucas Sims was a nice pickup since he carries one of the nastiest sweepers in baseball, but they need more. The bullpen construction and lack of effective strikeout relievers is a massive gap over every other team in the division.

The Nationals have seen some successes in starting pitching but probably need more. Gore has so much talent but has not fully put things together. His ERA was 3.90, and his FIP was 3.53. Both should be better if he’s going to be your number one option.

Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker all can attack the zone and offer some innings, but the team needs more swing-and-miss instead of quantity.

This is also the time the Nationals need to start progressing and there just isn’t enough for that to happen unless everything goes right. It’s unlikely that’s going to happen given the organization and the division they’re in.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Kyle Finnegan is DFA’d in the middle of the year

3. New York Mets (85-90 wins)

Saying a team that added Juan Soto to an already stacked lineup is going to take a step back seems doomed to fail but the Mets plan just seems difficult to see through.

The rotation doesn’t have any bad starters, but they need a lot to go right. Clay Holmes looks like a hit with a new nasty changeup. That seems like a bargain signing for David Stearns and the Mets front office.

Holmes is also probably not going to pitch a lot of innings either. It’s an imperfect way of projecting this but Reynaldo López only pitched 135.2 innings last year. Given the Mets depth, Holmes is probably only looking at around 115-120.

Tylor Megill should project to be a solid innings eater, and David Peterson can do that as well. Griffin Canning is finally pitching backward, given his fastball issues, but he will eventually need to throw his fastball in games. Evidence indicates that won’t go well. Can he sustain an extreme decision?

Kodai Senga only pitched 5.1 innings last season and looked the part of an effective number two starter in 2023. He also had a left-on-base rate of 80.3% and walked over 11% of hitters he faced.

Sean Manaea was great in 2024, but it’s hard to see him sustain the same fastball success. His four-seam and sinker graded out amazing, but teams now have more time to adjust to his funky delivery. Frankie Montas is probably a number five caliber starter at this point in his career. Both are also on the injured list to begin the season.

This is combined with a thin bullpen in the middle relief spots. Edwin Díaz, AJ Minter, Reed Garrett, and José Buttó should be a strong back-end, even if Minter has concerns coming off of an injury-plagued 2024.

Ryne Stanek, Danny Young, and Max Kranick are the middle relief options. So, when your starting pitching staff won’t pitch deep into games and your bullpen isn’t fleshed with depth, the offense will have to do plenty of heavy lifting.

New York will need a lot to go their way and if it doesn’t then it puts a lot of pressure on the offense to succeed. The lineup should finish in the top five but still has some questions.

Mark Vientos broke out with a 133 wRC+ last season because of how well he crushed fastballs. His expected numbers back up a player who could sustain most of that success too but there are issues.

Vientos hit .169 with a 41.7% whiff rate against breaking balls last year. He struck out over 29% of the time overall and didn’t walk. Can he sustain being a good hitter in today’s game off of just hitting fastballs? That’s hard to believe.

Francisco Alvarez is hurt right now, and Brett Baty is the starting second baseman. Combined with Jose Siri in center field, the lineup starts to thin out. When the pitching staff needs as much help as the Mets will, can the offense still score enough runs when injuries come into play as the season progresses? It’s hard to know.

It’s why the Mets might not make the playoffs in 2025, even after adding a generational talent in Juan Soto and retaining Pete Alonso. It’s a hard team for me to bet on for 2025.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Pete Alonso still has 26 kids and they all play for the Phillies

2. Philadelphia Phillies (92-97 wins)

Since this is a Phillies site that has a bunch of fantastic writers who did an in-depth series at every position group, here is a caveman version of the preview.

The Phillies are going to be a good baseball team despite the general vibes around the fanbase. They’re running back a team that won 95 games, which was probably on the high end of their projected outcomes to be fair. But contrary to popular belief, they did make improvements over the winter.

Jesus Luzardo is better than Taijuan Walker. Max Kepler is better than Johan Rojas. Rojas is better than the Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays stuff they tried last year. Even with losing Jeff Hoffman, the bullpen should still be very good with Orion Kerkering, José Alvarado, and Jordan Romano.

Matt Strahm could be in for regression in 2025, however. His homerun to flyball rate was only 5.7% last season and it typically hovers around 9-10% in a given season. He is also a fastball-driven pitcher who is 33 years old, so he is likely going to get hit a little harder this season. You’re still in a really good place if he’s the third or fourth best option in the bullpen.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Zack Wheeler wins a Cy Young before I escape TGP jail.

1. Atlanta Braves (97-102 wins)

Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are coming back in May to go along with a solid addition in Jurickson Profar. Sean Murphy is hurt right now but Drake Baldwin should step in fine to fill the role.

Atlanta’s other top prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver, looked the part of a rotation piece this spring. His fastball and secondary pitches are elite, but he’s struggled to throw strikes. He did a much better job of that in camp.

The Braves won 89 games last season with some of the worst luck imaginable. It wasn’t just with injuries; most of their players are in for bounce back seasons.

Austin Riley went from a 128 wRC+ in 2023 to a 116 in 2024. The results were worse, but his quality of contact and batted ball data remained great. He is probably going to put together much better results in 2025.

Michael Harris had a 115 wRC+ in 2023 but only a 99 in 2024. His batted ball data is very similar to both seasons, especially compared to the rest of the league. There are no reasons to think he can’t put together better results with the same process.

There are a couple of other players who still carry the trust to bounce back. Matt Olson has done the every other year thing his entire career so he could put together a fantastic 2025. Orlando Arcia is not a good player but probably not as bad as 2024 indicated.

There are questions about how Acuña and Strider will look or if Sale can stay healthy but there is still an overwhelming amount of evidence the Braves are going to bounce back in 2025.

The rest of the starting rotation might not be elite but still should provide quality. Spencer Schwellenbach is coming off an excellent rookie season that he can replicate, Reynaldo López is not a sub-two ERA pitcher but still a good one, and Grant Holmes should slide in nicely for the rotation.

The bullpen lost Joe Jiménez for most if not all of 2025 but still have a bunch of good arms. Raisel Iglesias is still a strong closer, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Aaron Bummer are all good. Daysbel Hernández is another arm with strong strikeout stuff who pitched very well in a short sample last season.

Part of me even thinks Craig Kimbrel will somehow have a good year with them but that’s a little too much blind faith.

The all-around roster and consistent winning are also enough to believe the division will be theirs again. Despite everything that happened last year, the Braves somehow figured it out and made the playoffs. Most teams fold in the same scenario.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: The Braves trade for Jeff Hoffman at the deadline