My own worst enemy: Phillies vs. Mets NLDS preview

The only team worth fearing is the Phillies themselves

I began writing this preview before I even knew who the Phillies’ opponent for the NLDS would be. And that’s because their opponent doesn’t really matter. The Phillies have the best overall team in baseball and have the most ways they can win. Starting pitching? They’ve got that. A bullpen with multiple viable late-inning options? They’ve got that. A lineup that can bludgeon opposing pitching staffs? They’ve got that too.

I want to offer the obvious caveat that having the best roster counts for little once the games begin, and often times, the “best” team isn’t the one that ends up holding the trophy at the end. And there are many ways this could go poorly for the Phillies, especially in a five-game series. Any of their starting pitchers might have a bad day against a playoff lineup. One of the relievers might make an uncharacteristic mistake in a big spot. And the offense has been known to sometimes slump and try to “swing harder” their way out of it.

Their opponent might have something to say about it too. The Mets had a strong second half to the season, and after their dramatic victory in game three of their Wild Card season, they’ve got momentum on their side. But as I’ll discuss later, momentum matters right up until the point when it doesn’t.

New York Mets

Regular season record: 89-73, Tied for second place in National League East

How they got here

After a rough start to the season that put them nine games under .500 at the start of June, the Mets got their act together and used a 40-27 second half to earn the National League’s third Wild Card spot.

Matched against the Brewers in the Wild Card series, they were one inning away from going home, but an all-time meltdown by Brewers closer Devin Williams allowed the Mets to pull off a comeback.

The season series

The teams met up for a “home-and-home” four game series in mid-May, with the Phillies taking the first three games before losing in walk off fashion in the fourth. The following month, they travelled to London where the teams split the two games.

In September, the Mets were furiously attempting to get back into the National League East race when they visited Philadelphia, but the Phillies won two out of three to basically seal the division. When the Phillies went to Citi Field later in the month, the Mets took three of four in a series that clearly meant more to the Mets than it did the Phillies.

Here’s what matters…except when it doesn’t

Talent alone doesn’t always decide the winner of a playoff series. There are also a number of other factors at play, and history has shown that these are crucial, except for the times when they didn’t matter.

The bye

Teams with byes in the Wild Card round have generally fared poorly in the NLDS. Looking back on the teams that earned a bye and then lost in the NLDS, it feels like most of them were derailed more by injuries or weaknesses in the starting rotation, rather than a few extra days of rest. Regardless, the Phillies have tried to follow the blueprint of the 2022 Houston Astros who rode that bye all the way to a World Series title.

Over the past few seasons, the Phillies have tended to start both the first and second half of seasons slowly. Given that this series is a best-of-five, they won’t have a chance to rev up after their layoff. In fact, given that the game is at Citizens Bank Park, and they’ll have the clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup, it might be crucial for them to win game one.

Unspectacular in the second half

There have been some concerns that the Phillies didn’t finish the season strongly, and that they’re just 33-33 since the All-Star Break. However, the heavy lifting in the loss column was done in the weeks immediately after the break. After the Phillies snapped a four-game losing streak on August 14, they went 26-17 the rest of the way. While that isn’t as great as their pace from the first half, it’s not like they’ve limped into the playoffs. (It should also be considered that the fifth starter’s spot was a complete disaster for the final month or so, and their record in games started by pitchers who will actually appear in the playoffs was much better.)

For comparison’s sake, the 2023 Texas Rangers were 30-26 in August, September, and October.

As for their opponent in the World Series, the Arizona Diamondbacks had a 32-39 record in the second half and lost their final four games of the season. They only held on to the final Wild Card spot because the Cubs similarly played poorly, losing five of their last six.

What about momentum?

With a strong second half finish and a playoff series victory under their belt, the Mets are coming into this series hot. History has shown us that hot teams win in the playoffs, except for all of those times they don’t.

You may believe that the 2022 Phillies rode a wave of late-season momentum all the way to the World Series. In actuality, the Phillies went 14-17 in September and October games and finished up September on a 4-10 stretch.

Do you know who the actual “hot” team entering the playoffs was that season? That would be the Atlanta Braves who went 45-23 in the second half, including a 21-10 record in September and October to overtake the Mets for the division lead. And all they got for their trouble was a single playoff win.

Last year’s playoffs were a great example of how little momentum can matter. In the 2023 NLCS, there was a team on a four-game winning streak after winning the first two games of the series by a combined 15-3 score. I don’t think I have to tell you what happened after that.

So then, what about the matchups?

The Phillies won the regular season series 7-6, but head-to-head matchups in the regular season have proven to be poor predictors of playoff series. That’s actually bad news because the results of the season series might be slightly misleading.

John’s math may be off, because Kolby Allard started one game, with Walker pitching three innings in relief, and the Phillies won. But the takeaway should be that the Mets won’t be seeing the likes of Walker or Allard in this series. Instead, if the series goes five games, they will likely have to face Zack Wheeler twice. Considering he’s the best starting pitcher left in the NL playoffs, that’s not a positive thing for the Mets.

It’s not like there’s a massive drop off in the rotation after Wheeler. Aaron Nola had a shaky start against the Mets in September, but earlier in the season, he pitched a complete game shutout against them. He’s also been excellent in his two previous NLDS appearances, giving up a total of two runs across 12 innings. Cristopher Sanchez has yet to prove himself in the playoffs, but he had an excellent season, especially at home. Ranger Suarez is the biggest X-factor. He hasn’t looked completely healthy for months, and while Rob Thomson praised him his work in the Phillies’ simulated game, I’d expect a quick hook if he struggles.

The Mets have a good offense, ranking seventh in the majors in runs scored. Surprisingly, that rank drops to tenth after the All-Star break, and they actually scored fewer runs than the Phillies in the second half. Francisco Lindor is the headliner, and he may be the best position player in the series, but he’s also performed shockingly bad against the Phillies this year, with a .498 OPS in eight games.

After Lindor, the biggest name is Pete Alonso. As we saw on Thursday, Alonso has his moments, but overall, his numbers were down in 2024. The main strength of the Mets’ lineup is a lack of weak spots. Players like J.D. Martinez and Brandon Nimmo didn’t have amazing seasons, but the Phillies will still need to be careful when pitching to them.

The Phillies will attempt to counter that deep lineup with a number of viable bullpen options. Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm are as good of a righty-lefty relief combination as you’ll find, Orion Kerkering has been excellent in getting out of mid-inning jams, and since his return, Jose Alvarado looks like he can once again be used in key situations.

I’ll admit that I’m not completely confident in Carlos Estevez. If he doesn’t outright blow a save, I definitely anticipate him making a game or two more interesting than it has to be. But he has gotten the job done most of the year, and he’s generally avoided any major Devin Williams style meltdowns.

The Mets have a solid rotation in their own right, but they won’t be able to use their best starter (Sean Manaea) until game three. The Mets have three left-handed options in Manaea, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson, which might sink some opponents, but the Phillies’ best hitters have been strong against lefty pitchers.

As for the bullpen, the Mets’ relievers have pitched a lot of crucial innings over the past week, and have leaned heavily on closer Edwin Diaz, often asking him to cover more than inning to earn a save. It feels like you can only go to that well so many times before it bites you, and it isn’t like the Phillies will be caught by surprise by anything he throws.

While Rob Thomson has plenty of options out of the bullpen, the best guy could easily be Orion Kerkering. The Mets hit just .217 with a .346 slugging percentage against breaking pitches, below the league average.

The bullpen features fastball-dominant pitchers like Matt Strahm, Carlos Estévez, José Alvarado, and even Jeff Hoffman to some extent but none have quite the sweeper like Kerkering.

He threw the sweeper about 55% of the time this season and should throw it more often. It’s hard to imagine Mets hitters being able to pick it up.

How the Phillies right-handed hitters approach the Mets will be interesting. The Mets righties prevented slug and missed bats but will walk guys. Their right-handed pitchers this season allowed a 9.5% walk rate, the third worst in the sport.

On the other hand, the Phillies right-handed hitters were one of two units who walked less than six percent of the time this season. Schwarber, Harper, Stott, and Marsh will take their passes but there will likely be pockets where the right-handed hitters have to be more disciplined.

Homefield non-advantage?

Everyone knows that the Phillies have been amazing at Citizens Bank Park, and getting up to three games there is a big advantage. But there’s also a concern that Mets fans will be buying up a lot of tickets to mitigate said advantage.

I don’t think that’s going to be a major concern. While a series against a New York team will always draw a fair number of visiting fans, the Mets didn’t really pack the house for their own home games down the stretch. Considering that secondary market tickets may be cheaper for Citi Field, I don’t think there’s any danger of a full-scale takeover.

Random thought about the series

I don’t really understand what the whole Grimace thing is with the Mets, but it’s lame as heck, and the Phillies should make sure it dies here.

What I want to see

I think back to the 2010 NLDS: The Reds came into the playoffs full of optimism, only to be no hit by Roy Halladay in the first game of the series. While the series was basically over at that point, by MLB rules, they had to travel to Cincinnati to play game three.

I remember seeing shots of the Cincinnati crowd wearing all their newly purchased playoff gear, and the despondent looks on their faces as Cole Hamels dominated them, ending their playoff run as quickly as began.

I’d like nothing more than to see a similar look of despondency on the faces of Mets fans during game three of this series.

Closing thought

This won’t be an easy series. For some reason, some people seem to be shocked that the Phillies won’t be facing the White Sox or Nationals, and instead will have to go against a good team with a couple of playoff wins under their belt.

And who knows? Maybe the Phillies actually will be undone by the time off or by their relatively weak second half performance. Maybe the Mets really are just too hot right now, and they truly are a team of destiny.

But I suspect this will come down to talent and matchups, and those favor the Phillies. If the Phillies play up to their capabilities, they will win this series. As we’ve seen over the past two years, that’s far from a given, but I have confidence. Phillies in four.