MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays

Today’s mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees’ infield, the Giants’ ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don’t sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren’t getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.

Kyle asks:

What’s your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I’m a bit irked they wouldn’t beat the Reds offer (M’s have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M’s being too risk averse?

Leonard asks:

I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?

Jeff asks:

After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?

Dante asks:

Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.

Elliott asks:

After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds’ next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?

Colin asks:

I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?

Jason asks:

What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?

Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman.  He saved his season with a hot streak that I’d say ran from July 11th through September 4th.  In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances.  He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.

Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances.  On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time.  That’s for good reason – he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.

In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux’s second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage.  Lux’s changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder.  You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.

Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career.  The eight-week streak isn’t enough to convince me he’s changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.

All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder.  There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star.  Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too.  I don’t think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn’t, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.

Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would “give him a look” at third base and shortstop.  Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it’s hard to see how third base would be any better.  He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field.  Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there.  The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn’t find a position.  So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.

As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast’s OAA this year.  So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties.  That’s a useful player.

But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?