Can Trea Turner find consistency at the top of the lineup?
In the early part of Spring Training, the biggest story for the Philadelphia Phillies has been lineup construction, usually centering on which player will bat first. For most of the past three seasons, that spot has been manned by Kyle Schwarber. To some fans, this was a poor choice, because Schwarber did not fit the stereotypical description of a leadoff hitter.
Until about 20 years ago, when filling out a lineup, managers would typically stick the fastest guy on the team at the leadoff spot. It was a bonus if that player hit for a high average, but generally, on-base percentage wasn’t a major concern as long as the player could run fast on the occasions he did reach base.
Speed is the most overrated skill in baseball to the point that managers at this moment are deciding “Should I give this crappy hitter the most ABs on the team by batting him leadoff or just bury him at the bottom of the order?” It makes literally no sense.
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) March 14, 2021
That belief that “the fastest guy goes first” is one of the main reasons why Kyle Schwarber’s tenure at the top of the lineup has always seemed unconventional. Schwarber is far from the fastest player on the team (I’ve compared his running style to that of a frightened cat), and he is unlikely to ever compete for a batting title. However, Schwarber does generally have patient at bats, and because he takes a decent number of walks, he has a good on-base percentage, which is now considered a far more important trait for a leadoff hitter rather than pure speed.
The problem is, Schwarber also might be the team’s best power hitter. We all love those leadoff “Schwarbombs” which do set the game off on the right note, but the team seems to believe that far too many of Schwarber’s homers have come with nobody on base. There is a sentiment that the lineup would be better served if he moved down a few spots and some of those solo shots became multiple-run home runs.
This is why ima miss Schwarber in the leadoff spot. No better way to start a game than this. Sets the tone in such a big way. Hopefully when harp comes back he gets bumped back up to the 1 spot pic.twitter.com/8S3Dsf5MYC
— Miserable Phillies Fan (@harper4governor) February 17, 2023
While I don’t think anyone would be shocked if come June, Schwarber is back on the top, the team does seem to be sincere in replacing him at leadoff, and the first man to get a crack at it will be Trea Turner.
This could work out, but it depends on which version of Turner the Phillies get this season. When he played with the Nationals, Turner hit for a high batting average and regularly had an on-base percentage over .350. He would chip in some home runs along the way, but it wasn’t the primary feature of his offensive game.
18-game hitting steak for Trea Turner who is well on his way to the batting title he always seemed built to win
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) October 3, 2021
Since coming to the Phillies, he’s been a schizoid enigma, where he looks like either the best or worst player in baseball at any given time. He hits for more power, but likely uncoincidentally, he’s been far less consistent as a hitter. The power binges are fun while they’re happening, but they are too often counter-balanced by slumps that can stretch over multiple weeks.
The hope is that being placed at the top of the lineup will change Turner’s mindset, and instead of chasing home runs, he’ll focus more on simply getting on base to set the table for the hitters behind him in the lineup.
What happens if Turner can’t handle that? What if he’s still madly inconsistent, and as a result, the Phillies’ offensive production wanes and waxes as the leadoff hitter alternates between red-hot and slump? The Phillies could always try to go old school and put their fastest player at the top of the lineup.
Johan Rojas: Leadoff hitter? Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.