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Just remember: it’s only spring training
Each spring, there is someone that comes out of the weeds that has people’s hearts all a’flutter. Sometimes it’s a prospect that is near to making a major league debut that seems to fill a particular hole on a team and comes out hitting/pitching like gangbusters, making the developmental decision that much harder. Sometimes it’s a veteran clinging to the last vestiges of his major league life that is erupting for above average production in an effort to stave off Father Time.
Sometimes, it’s John McMillon.
It has been exactly one (1) spring relief appearance made by McMillon, yet there is already hyperbolic statements being tossed around without a care in the world.
Good morning,
The Phillies have found their next Jeff Hoffman.
His name is John McMillon.
— Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) February 24, 2025
Babe, wake up— a new proStuff+ monster just dropped
(don’t look at his minor league walk rate) pic.twitter.com/NJFNRgN7yt
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) February 23, 2025
These are the types of statements that are caused by eye opening spring outings. No matter who the opposition is, if a team sees a reliever making hitters look silly, that starts setting the ol’ pacemaker on edge.
John McMillon’s 4-Seamer lit up the radar gun today pic.twitter.com/DemN3LmkAK
— PBT Stats (@PBTstats) February 23, 2025
Now, if the name seems unfamiliar, you are not alone. McMillon was grabbed from the Marlins via a waiver claim in November, obviously seeing something in his arsenal that the Phillies felt they could mold into something more useful. He has already debuted in the major leagues with Kansas City in 2023 before pitching 16 somewhat effective innings in Miami in 2024. His season was cut short however, ending early with the ominous “right elbow tightness” that likely was why the Phillies were able to snag him with that waiver claim in the first place.
Yet there was some miniscule evidence that we can see publicly that the team has something on their hands.
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Small sample sizes and knowledge that we can’t base any true determinations on them has thankfully taken over baseball analysis. We know that you cannot make any kind of serious conclusion based on the numbers you see above. However, that won’t stop some. Extrapolate these numbers out over a larger sample size and that’s going to be one of the best pitchers in the game, regardless of whether or not he is a reliever or a starter. It’s a lot of red in there, but someone that is able to get the outs both on the ground and via the strikeout. Watching some of McMillon’s pitches last year and you can see why the stuff is going to garner some high praise. Here is a slider that just drops completely out of the zone with some super tight spin.
Here are two examples of the fastball that McMillon simply throws right past the two hitters in the videos.
These are the kinds of things that get people excited when looking at random relievers that can improve when moving to another team. Even if it is a bit hyperbolic at first glance, Fritz’s observation that the team has a new Jeff Hoffman on their hands makes some sense when you compare the two. Both were freely available talent that seem to have had the basic parts needed for success in the big leagues with at least one pitch that can be molded into something that would grade out as plus.
The caution, of course, is sample.
We’re talking about one inning in spring training.
How many spring trainings past are littered with relievers that come out of nowhere, electrify observers of the team with their stuff and results and are deemed the best big thing? It’s not just the Phillies that have fallen victim to this. Go around the league to any fanbase and someone will come up with an example from their spring training that got people excited with what might be to come.
It’s why people should exercise large amounts of caution with any performances this spring that seem too good to be true. There is a reason McMillon was freely available in the first place. If a team like the Marlins are moving on from McMillon, a team that is honestly going to be quite bad in 2025, that should carry a substantial amount of weight for the time being. Did they release him because of his injury, his wavering ability to throw strikes or some combination of the two?
There is always a chance that yes, McMillon does turn into something really, really good in the back of the bullpen. He certainly has some evidence in his corner that the tools are there; they just need to be honed by the right coaching staff. The Phillies have proven over the past few years that they are indeed one of those coaching staffs that can wring out more talent from fringe arms. Maybe he just needs the right organization.
That and health.
And control.
For now, maybe pump the brakes a bit and give the guy a chance to do it multiple times in spring outings, then multiple times against better hitters in those spring outings. Should that happen, if he can go to Lehigh Valley and continue to get results, then maybe there is something to talk about.