If you haven’t already, it’s time to readjust your expectations for the Phillies

Yes, Alec, we want you to make the losing stop, too.

One month ago today, Phillies fans woke up the happiest they’ve been since the end of the 2022 NLCS. After finishing off a three-game sweep of the Dodgers at home, they were a season high 29 games over .500, 61-32. They led the Atlanta Braves by 9 ¹⁄₂ games and were 13 ¹⁄₂ games better than the Mets in the NL East. Not only that, the Dodgers fell to 6 ¹⁄₂ games behind them in the race for the best record in the National League, with the Brewers 7 ¹⁄₂ back.

The Phillies were the unquestioned best team in baseball. They were on a glide path to a first round bye in the NL playoffs and seemed to have the road to the World Series paved ahead of them. The starting rotation was great, the offense was consistently coming up with home runs and timely hits, and the bullpen was locking down the vast majority of the late leads they had been handed.

One month later, after a three-game curb stomping by the Diamondbacks in Arizona, Phillies fans are waking up frustrated and angry. The implosion of the Braves, and the Mets’ inability to mount a serious charge, still has the Phils 7 ¹⁄₂ up on Atlanta and 8 up on New York in the NL East, a sizeable lead that continues to have them as the overwhelming favorites to win the division.

But their 8-17 record since the home Dodgers series has allowed the rest of the NL to catch up.

The Dodgers have made up those 6 ¹⁄₂ games in a month to pull even in the standings, although the Phils own the tie-breaker thanks to their series victory in L.A. last week. More concerning is the surge from Milwaukee, who sits just 1 ¹⁄₂ games behind the Phillies. While winning the NL East would be great, it doesn’t mean much if the Phils aren’t one of the top two seeds in the National League, earning a bye past the wild card round.

Winning the division with the third best record in the league would be little different from last year, when they were the top wild card team.

As the Phils were stacking series wins and sweeps early on, the critics warned us the team wasn’t as good as their record indicated, that they were beating up on the weaker opponents and taking advantage of a friendly schedule that was frontloaded with lots of home games in April and May.

Give the Phillies credit, they did what they were supposed to do in those early months, but the schedule has significantly stiffened over the last few weeks.

Each of the last seven opponents the Phillies have faced were .500 or better when they faced them. The Phils lost six of those seven series and have gone 7-14 in that stretch. Out of those 21 games, 16 of them have been on the road. That would be a brutal stretch for any team to play well through, but the beating the Phillies experienced over the weekend at Chase Field, their personal house of horrors, continued a recent trend of playing totally uncompetitive baseball.

It’s time to recalibrate our expectations for the 2024 Phillies.

No, they aren’t going to break the team’s all-time wins record of 102. No, this isn’t going to go down as the best overall team in franchise history. No, the starting rotation isn’t going to have three of the top five Cy Young candidates in the rotation. No, they probably don’t have two MVP candidates. No, the offense isn’t a relentless machine grinding opposing pitchers into ground meat. And no, the bullpen isn’t going to dominate every game from the 6th inning on from here on out.

The 2024 Phillies are the same ones as the 2023 Phillies, and the 2022 Phillies. They have just gotten here a different way.

That isn’t to say the ‘24 Phils won’t finish with a better record that the previous two iterations. They certainly will and, hey, maybe they are a bit better. On paper, they seem like a more complete team, if everyone plays to their capabilities. Neither the ‘22 or ‘23 teams were ever as hot as this year’s group was early on, and neither of those two playoff teams sustained success for as long. But as we’ve seen with this recent slump by the offense and the regression from the pitching staff, they are still just as flawed.

This isn’t a juggernaut. They’re just a good team that is struggling mightily and will have to claw their way to the World Series, just like everyone else.

Since July 1, the only starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 is Zack Wheeler, sporting a 2.92 ERA in six starts. Aaron Nola’s is 4.08 in seven starts since July 1, while Cristopher Sanchez’ is 6.63 and Ranger Suarez, before landing on the injured list with back spasms, is 6.61 in three starts. Kolby Allard and Tyler Phillips have done some good things in the absence of Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull, but only so much can be expected out of them.

The bullpen has been brutal and the level of trust for each reliever has diminished some over the last month-and-a-half.

Jeff Hoffman’s ERA of 3.95 isn’t bad, but he’s been responsible for two crushing losses in the last two weeks. The other bullpen All Star, Matt Strahm, is emerging from his midseason funk, but damage was done with his 4.15 ERA in 13 innings. Orion Kerkering has walked the tightrope seemingly every time out, with a 4.20 ERA in 15 innings, which has included a couple meltdowns in big spots, to say nothing of Jose Ruiz and Yunior Marte, who are sporting ERAs of 5.84 and 13.03 respectively.

The biggest concern is Jose Alvarado, who is getting his brains beat in right now. Since July 1, the usually unhittable lefty closer has pitched 13 ²⁄₃ innings in 15 games, has struck out just 19.0% of batters (he’s usually over 30%), and allowed a .304 batting average against with 17 hits allowed. Only Marte has given up more hits during this stretch. His 7.90 ERA over his last 15 appearances is utterly dumbfounding.

As for the offense, whoo boy.

Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have tried carrying the offense, but it hasn’t been enough. After an MVP-like start, the blistering hot-and-feezing cold Trea Turner has a .299 OBP since July 1 and cannot stop hitting weak grounders to third base just about every time up. Bryce Harper’s slash line is .215/.294/.430. He’s been better over the last week, but has not been able to get really hot since June. And you see the lackluster performances from Realmuto, Stott and Marsh above.

Maybe we were asking too much. At the beginning of the season, if you’d have said the Phillies would lead the division by 7 ¹⁄₂ games and be even with the Dodgers and Brewers for the best record in the NL, we’d have taken it.

The concern is the trend line is pointing down. They’re in a tailspin and they’ve got to pull out of it. The good news is this group has been in tailspins before, and they have pulled out of it, only to see it reappear at the worst time in October.

It is infuriating watching this team play baseball right now. They have no identity. There is nothing on which they can hang their hat. Every aspect of the team is letting each other down. The best clubhouse in baseball needs to figure things out soon if they want to avoid the wild card round of the postseason, and quick.

But the Phillies are going to make the playoffs, of that there is no question, and if the struggles are going to come, it’s better they come now and for the boys to get hot as the calendar flips to September and October.

The truth about the 2024 Phillies is that this is not a team head and shoulders set apart from the previous two. We are not going to witness one of the greatest regular seasons in franchise history, and that is disappointing. It was really fun thinking that might happen and to wake up just about every day enjoying yet another Phils victory.

We need to readjust our expectations and feelings about the Phillies, otherwise, they’re going to drive us all crazy.