A quick glance at the current roster
2025 has dawned and we can now turn the page on the disappointment that 2024 turned into. There’s no reason to rehash how bad things turned out for the Phillies thanks to the gut-wrenching display they put on against the Mets. Instead, let’s focus on the season that is to come. Their offseason has certainly gotten off to a….start.
What looked like an offseason of desperate spending and roster shuffling has turned into a payroll constrained tinkering around the edges. There may have been some expectation that major changes were afoot based on the comments made by the front office once the flag dropped on the offseason, instead, there have been some relatively mild additions instead. It’s not fair to compare the Mets signing Juan Soto to the Phillies adding Max Kepler, but that’s all we’ve got. Fortunately for the Phillies, what they already have in place is plenty good to get them to a World Series.
I think.
Now, the calendar has turned. 2025 is but a newborn babe. Let’s look at what the projected group of starters looks like at each position were Opening Day to happen tomorrow.
Catching
Projected tandem: J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
The question about the catcher’s position is not about 2025. We know that will be Realmuto and Stubbs (I refuse to put someone else here until I actually see it). The question about the catcher’s position is about what happens after 2025. With the lack of options that they have in the minor leagues until you reach all the way down to Eduardo Tait, there remains a question as to whether or not Realmuto will return beyond this coming season. The way ownership is acting with their desire to clear some money off the books, it doesn’t look like that will be an option unless he’s willing to take a large pay cut.
That’s a question for the future though. If Realmuto can somehow be convinced to play less in 2025 and put up better than average numbers for a catcher, the question of whether or not he returns will be a lot easier to answer (if the price is right).
Infield
Projected group: Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, Kyle Schwarber (DH), Weston Wilson
As of now, Alec Bohm is on the team. It’s possible that the front office, in their desire to shake things up by making some kind of move with Bohm, overplayed their hand in trade talks (we’ll never know what the actual deals were compared to the reported offers), so for now, he’s penciled in as the third baseman. Weston Wilson is looking better to make the team since there are few right handed options to come off the bench in the upper levels of the minors that would be an upgrade over what he has to offer.
The key to everything is Trea Turner. The long term deal he signed is still up in the air as far as how we can judge it, but there are a lot of people that feel like it’s been a bust. It really hasn’t been. His 8.2 fWAR over the past two seasons is 8th among shortstops, 7th if you don’t count Mookie Betts as a primary shortstop. It leaves something to be desired, sure, but it’s far from a bust.
It would be nice if 2025 was the season where he had one of his 6-7 WAR seasons though.
Think about how much better this lineup would be if that was the version of Turner that the team got. All of a sudden, there are three players at the top of the lineup that can be considered among the best trios in the game in Schwarber, Turner and Harper. Plus. with as left handed as this lineup now appears to be, someone batting right handed is going to have to step up and be a threat. Wouldn’t it be nice if that was Turner?
Outfield
Projected group: Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, Johan Rojas
The Kepler signing was very much a surprise and there still looks to be a hole in center field, but this is, at the very least, an average group. What they’ve done is set themselves up to see what they’ve got to start the season and then if a reinforcement is needed and something comes open at the trade deadline, they are set up to make an addition.
There is still quality here. Castellanos was very good at the plate once the 2024 calendar turned to June, Kepler has some interesting underlying things (or at least he has to, right?) and Marsh is capable of improvement and will give a serviceable center field defense.
Make no mistake, this is still the weakest part of the team. There was improvement needed and not much was done outside of adding Kepler and putting Marsh in center full time (for now). How bad it actually is is probably a bit overexaggerated though.
It’s not that bad.
Starting pitching
Projected starting rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Ranger Suarez
This is still a really good rotation, perhaps the best in the game.
There are concerns though. Off the top of my head, one for each pitcher listed here:
1) What if Wheeler regresses at all?
2) Which version of Nola are we going to get?
3) Are you sure Sanchez has arrived as one of the better pitchers in the game, or was last season a dream season?
4) Is Luzardo healthy?
5) Can Suarez make it through the entire season in one piece?
Of course, the overarching question for the entire group – can they continue their run of good luck in the health department? This has been a rotation that has enjoyed relatively good health, minor dings here and there that the training staff has taken seriously to avoid prolonged absences. If anyone goes down, there is depth here to make up for it, but a serious bite from the injury bug would probably doom the season.
Relief pitching
Projected bullpen: Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm, Jose Alvarado, Jose Ruiz, Orion Kerkering, Joe Ross, Tanner Banks, Taijuan Walker
Is this position still a strength of the team?
Bullpens are notoriously fickle. It can be hard to maintain a quality unit season after season after season, especially with the way the free agent market has exploded for high quality middle relievers. For most teams, being able to find good relievers, heck, even average relievers, at low costs is becoming difficult. There will always be holes that need to be filled, but starting off with a good base once the season begins is key to getting off to a good start.
Right now, we should be fairly confident that the Phillies at least have a good bullpen to begin with. Matt Strahm is a good place to begin, what with his All-Star level 2024 season, but the regression bug is always lurking. It’s why teams like the Phillies are always looking to surround their best relievers with others and Orion Kerkering plays a solid second fiddle. The big question mark is going to be Romano. If he can get back to where he was prior to his maladies of 2024, the team suddenly has another trio of arms that they can deploy in the 7-8-9 innings. A bounceback season from Jose Alvarado would go a long way to strengthening this unit, but as we’ve seen from him in the past, we simply don’t know which version of Alvarado we will be getting. The signing of Joe Ross might turn into a under the radar piece that pays large dividends.
Jose Ruiz and Tanner Banks will be there to simply get those middle innings that need to be had, delivering something quality to the team, maybe even a touch better.
Taijuan Walker will be there. Maybe.
It’s a good unit as whole, though improvement will likely be sought midseason.
Overall, this is still a playoff caliber team. The competition has gotten better though and they will ill afford getting off to a slow start. There needs to be some players hit at their 70th-80th percentile projections if they want to be considered among the best of the best, but as far as the National League, they are still in the tier below the Dodgers. They should probably still be considered the favorites in their division.
It’s a good team.