Ask any Phillies fan what the team’s biggest weaknesses are heading into the Winter Meetings next week and the answers would be nearly universal — outfield, fixing the lineup, late inning relief.
Team president Dave Dombrowski has essentially outlined the same issues with the roster. It is too easy for pitchers to make their way through the Phillies’ free-swinging, happy-chasing lineup, they did not get nearly enough production from the outfield, and they are potentially losing two of their best high leverage bullpen arms in Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez.
And yet it appears the Phils priority is engaging with the Chicago White Sox about starting pitcher Garrett Crochet. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday…
“They have spoken about [Alec] Bohm and outfield prospect Justin Crawford in extensive trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for starter Garrett Crochet, but the White Sox are concerned with Bohm’s struggles the second half, posting a .681 OPS with just four home runs.”
How does this make sense for the Phillies?
Starting Rotation Questions
The Phils already possess one of the league’s best rotations, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez forming one of the top-four groupings in all of baseball (provided Suarez isn’t moved in a deal this winter), and with Andrew Painter ready to contribute in 2025 and become a full-time member of the rotation in 2026 (provided he stays healthy). Why would the Phils be willing to deal away a prospect who some project to be big league ready by the middle of this year and plays a position (center field) that is widely regarded as one of their greatest weaknesses in order to add a player to an area of obvious strength?
If we look a little deeper, the rationale for acquiring Crochet becomes more sensible.
Wheeler finished second in the Cy Young voting again this year after putting together the best season of his career at age 34. While he is showing no signs of slowing down, most pitchers tend to lose their magic as they move further into their 30s, and Wheeler will pitch next year at 35 years old. He has hurled an average of 189 innings the last four years. By Steve Carlton’s standards, that’s nothing, but in today’s Major League Baseball, it’s a lot.
Aaron Nola put together another solid Aaron Nola season in 2024, and the 32-year-old has six more years left on his deal. He isn’t going anywhere, but how much longer will he remain a top-of-the-rotation arm? Sanchez is young and on the ascent, but Suarez is in his final year of arbitration and appears destined either for free agency at the end of the ‘25 season, or to be traded this off-season. Painter likely will not throw more than 100 innings in 2025, and likely no more than 140 in ‘26.
Adding Crochet would give the Phils an ace-caliber starting pitcher to act as a hedge in case Wheeler and/or Nola are less effective over the next three years. Crochet is under team control for another three seasons as well, meaning he’ll be inexpensive to retain over that stretch.
Crochet is Extremely Good
Make no mistake, Crochet is one of the 10 best starting pitchers in the game.
Last year, there were 20 MLB pitchers who pitched at least 140 innings who accumulated an fWAR of 3.5 or higher. Three Phillies (Wheeler, Sanchez and Suarez) were on that list, as was Crochet, who tied with Sanchez and Kansas City’s Seth Lugo for 6th-most (4.7).
Crochet accumulated that much WAR despite pitching 35 fewer innings than Sanchez and 60 (!!!) fewer innings than Lugo. Let’s arrange the leaderboard to reflect Wins Above Replacement per inning pitched.
NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale totaled the most fWAR in baseball (6.4) and did so in just 177.2 innings, but not other pitcher in baseball was worth as much per inning pitched as Crochet in 2024.
He led all of baseball in strikeouts per nine (12.88) and strikeout percentage (35.1%), was third in Fielding Independent Pitching (2.69), fourth in expected ERA (2.83), tied for 12th in walk rate (5.5%), and was fourth in strikeouts per walks (6.33). Outside of Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, no one had a better Fastball Runs Above Average (wFA), meaning his fastball was among the very best in baseball.
And as a left-hander, he was adept at getting right-handed hitters out last season, holding them to a .216 batting average, although 17 of the 18 home runs he gave up were to righties. He was a bit inconsistent, with a 5.97 ERA in April, a 4.85 ERA in July and a 6.91 ERA in August, but posted ERAs of 0.93, 1.91 and 3.12 in May, June and September. However, some of those numbers were due to his usage, as Chicago sought to limit his workload coming off of Tommy John surgery. Starting in July, he never pitched more than 4 innings in any outing, with one blowup outing against the Cubs on August 9th in which he gave up seven runs in 2 1⁄3 innings.
Strengthening a Strength
The task ahead for Dombrowski in re-tooling a lineup full of high-priced veterans is difficult. Rumors abound he is gauging interest in third baseman Alec Bohm, right fielder Nick Castellanos and Suarez in the hopes of acquiring big league hitters that see more pitches, walk a bit more and chase less. However, most teams are looking for those types of guys, too.
There are free agent outfielders not named Juan Soto the team could go out and buy in free agency. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all hit for a lot of power, but wouldn’t change the lineup’s makeup all that much. Jurickson Profar would seem to fit the profile, but how much trust do you have that his career year in 2024 wasn’t a Brady Anderson-like one-hit wonder?
If Dombrowski can’t make the kinds of changes he wants to the lineup, the alternative is to strengthen a strength and give the Phillies a super rotation that would rival the 2011 group that helped them win a franchise-most 102 games. I still believe Dombrowski will figure out a way to change things around in the lineup, but adding a pitcher like Crochet perhaps takes some of the pressure off.