It’s early but we can never assume that these trends will stop
Let’s get this out of the way: I am not a statistician.
That much should have been made clear by what I write at this point. I know the analytical terms, what they mean, roughly how they are gotten (?) and how to use them when looking at players in today’s modern age.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun with some of the numbers that are happening right now, right?!?!?!
One of the joys of early season baseball is to talk about a guy who is “on pace for” some kind of crazy stat. Tuffy Rhodes of the Cubs will forever be known in Chicago lore as the guy who homered three times on Opening Day, 1994. Had he kept up that pace, he’d have had 486 home runs at the end of that season. Again, crazy. However, in the sense of fun, let’s look at where a few of the Phillies are, statistically, and see how they will end up at the end of the season if their current paces keep up.
J.T. Realmuto is going to strikeout 243 times this season
There is a perception that the cliff that Realmuto’s career has approached the past few seasons looks like it is getting closer and closer with each passing day. I’m not sure he is there yet. In fact, I’d argue that he is probably further away from it than most think. However, thus far in the season, he just doesn’t look right at the plate.
Much of that can be attributed to short sample sizes. We’ve only got four games of viewing under our belts, so we’ll hyperanalyze anything that happens in the games. So when we see someone like Realmuto strike out six times in thirteen plate appearances, it can look a little rough. Add in the context that he is entering the final season of his deal and the team has to decide if they want to pay a catcher for his decline years, it creates another layer of questions.
Still, if we look at his past few seasons, the whiff and chase rates he’s posted aren’t crazy. They’re not great, but they’re also not all that concerning. Assuming that he has made it to the cliff of his career and he is about to nosedive does ignore his past a bit too much. Is it possible, possible that we are about to see the steep decline that many have predicted? Of course.
It’s also probably just a cold streak to start the season.
Kyle Schwarber is going to hit 121 home runs this season (with a half homer for good measure)
Dear Dave,
We’re not difficult people. We like home runs and players who hit them in bunches. If there were a player on the current roster that seemed capable of hitting 121 (and 1⁄2 ) home runs, it would be Schwarber.
We also know that offense has been trending in the wrong direction these past few years and runs have been becoming more and more scarce. There is always a pendulum swinging in the game between pitching- and hitting-dominated seasons and it looks like right now, the pendulum has swung a bit too far towards pitching. Good hitters, particularly ones that can hit the ball over the fence, are going to continue to be prioritized.
Kyle Schwarber is going to get a large contract if he is allowed to hit free agency. You, Dave, need to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Is it wise to give a DH-only slugger a long term contract that is on the wrong side of 30? There would definitely be issues with doing so. But consider that Schwarber is still at least capable of playing in the outfield on occasion, meaning the DH could be used to give others a day off their feet if need be. In the past, prior to the DH becoming a universal occurrence, teams would hide hitters in the position in order to keep the bat there. Now that it is used in both leagues, giving something long term to Schwarber doesn’t feel like a death knell to roster construction. Plus, he’s shown improvement enough in the past 12 months as an actual hitter than maybe he shouldn’t be thought of as a TTO hitter any longer.
Give him the deal, Dave.
He’s worth it.
Edmundo Sosa is going to get 243 hits this season
Sosa is starting to become something of a cult hero amongst the fanbase.
It seems like for a good reason, too. Monday’s hit was yet another clutch moment he’s had in his Phillies career, coupled with the stellar run of play he had when Trea Turner went out last season. His exploits on Monday even earned him a write up at Baseball Prospectus in which his ability to be a quality utility player and have his advantages against left handed pitching deployed properly.
Since joining the Phillies, though, Sosa has been invaluable. He delivers solid defense at all three of the throwing infield positions, and he’s batted .263/.310/.442 in almost 650 trips to the plate. The best thing about those numbers, too: They come, reliably, in exactly the situations where you want to use him anyway.
There have been suggestions that Sosa play more often over Turner, or even as much as when considering a position change for the latter, and there is a case for that. The team has even thought as much now that we have seen Sosa playing the outfield in spring training game situations, but his taking over for Turner full time at shortstop is simply not going to happen. While he is a useful player, a quality player, the ceiling that Turner provides with his skillset is just higher. Contracts aside, that’s the real reason why Turner will remain the shortstop for the immediate future.
Still, amassing these many hits for Sosa was never in the realm of realistic thanks to what looks like a lack of meaningful playing time coupled with the expected regression to the mean. But he has proven, not even considering this small sample size in 2025, that more playing time would probably benefit the team as a whole. That playing time might come at second base, at third base or even in the outfield, particularly if there is a left handed pitcher on the mound for the opposition. It’s something that should be considered a bit more strongly than it probably has been to this point.