Happy 2025!
The questions about this off-season are mostly 2025-related. Is Jordan Romano enough for the bullpen? Is Max Kepler the offensive upgrade they needed? The bigger picture takeaways are a lot more entertaining.
The Phillies did not commit money to 2026 and beyond
Jordan Romano signed a one-year deal and is likely Jeff Hoffman’s replacement. Max Kepler signed a one-year deal. Jesús Luzardo has two years of control but it allows them to let Ranger Suárez walk next season.
2026 will be the first time in a few years that Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies front office will have breathing room with the roster but it comes at a cost.
The Phillies have roughly $80 million coming off the payroll but with key players hitting the open market. Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Ranger Suárez are the big three. Max Kepler is supposed to be an everyday player and was signed to an expiring contract and José Alvarado is a key bullpen piece with a team option that could be declined.
Some of these guys will have to come back. Realmuto is important with the lack of internal options the Phillies have, his specific impact on the pitching staff, and the leadership/toughness he brings every day. There probably won’t be a better option for next season that the Phillies can afford.
Kyle Schwarber is one of the most important hitters in the Phillies lineup but he is a good season away from being one of the bats available in free agency next season. There is an argument that the Phillies become a lot more flexible without a true designated hitter.
Nick Castellanos had -11 defensive runs saved in right field last season. If he loses a step in the outfield this upcoming season then playing him every day in right field for 2026 isn’t an option. Maybe Aidan Miller is ready and slides Alec Bohm and Trea Turner to more designated hitter (DH) duty.
That still feels like a worse club than with Kyle Schwarber even if the DH spot becomes more flexible.
One final point is that Kyle Schwarber was never handed the Qualifying Offer in 2021 because he was traded to the Red Sox at the deadline. The Phillies could receive a pick if he leaves (and gets the QO).
They make roughly $42 million in 2025 and should be at least a little cheaper next season. Realmuto almost certainly won’t get $23 million in average annual value in 2026 right? Schwarber might be more expensive if he maintains his 2024 form.
What will the youth movement look like?
Andrew Painter will pitch at some point this season. The rest of the transition might not be as seamless.
Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, and Moises Chace are in AA. Crawford specifically played 40 games with them and the Phillies carry plenty of 2026 questions with the outfield. Crawford also might need more development time if the groundball rate and approach don’t take major strides this season.
Miller is a more established top prospect but would join a more established position group whenever he debuts. If he’s ready for 2026, would the Phillies look to trade Bohm? Move Trea Turner to a different position? Will one of them DH more for that season?
This would be a great problem to have but it doesn’t mean there won’t be some challenges down the road.
Chace is more of a wild card because of his unpredictable rise. He came to the Phillies in the Gregory Soto trade and went from a reliever who struggled to throw strikes to a starting pitcher who pounded the zone. He walked over 13% of hitters in A+ ball with the Orioles to 9.1% in AA with Philadelphia.
The AA pre-tack ball makes this question even harder so if the command jump isn’t fully real then he probably projects as a reliever long term. If it is then he would be the unquestioned second-best starting pitching prospect in the Phillies organization.
There are good problems here if all of these guys are ready. Maybe none of them debut until closer to 2027. Some may never wear the Phillies pinstripes but the how they transition will be fascinating.
What does the Phillies pitching development look like without Brian Kaplan?
The Phillies have seen plenty of breakout pitchers over the last few seasons since Brian Kaplan became an assistant pitching coach and director of pitching development.
In 2022, José Alvarado became one of the best relievers in baseball, Andrew Bellatti had a 3.31 ERA, Bailey Falter had a 3.86 ERA, and Dombrowski was able to flip breakout prospect Ben Brown for David Robertson.
In 2023, Jeff Hoffman became one of the best right-handed relievers in the sport and Cristopher Sánchez became a reliable number four starter.
2024 saw the big leaps from prospects George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri. Both were later flipped for Carlos Estévez. Moises Chace and Seth Johnson became better pitchers after getting traded from Baltimore and Michael Mercado made his major league debut.
Caleb Cotham deserves a lot of credit, especially for the major league breakouts and plenty of others helped along the way but Kaplan could be a loss thats felt.
Specifically on the minor league side, the Phillies have relied on breakout starting pitcher prospects to facilitate their trade deadlines. Can they maintain the same infrastructure without someone as important as Kaplan?
The Phillies promoted Mark Lowy to replace Kaplan. They were together at Cressy Sports before coming to the Phillies in 2021.
Lowy could be good or even better but it’s hard to know. From what has been made public, Kaplan was a massive reason for why the Phillies have become one of the best pitching development organizations in the sport over recent seasons.