The Roki Sasaki frenzy is nearing its completion. Several teams have reportedly been told that they won’t be signing the right-hander and now Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in the running, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.
It seems that today was the day that Sasaki and his reps started informing teams that had been eliminated from the running. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not be signing Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely connected to Sasaki at times and hadn’t been expressly eliminated, but it seems they didn’t make it to the podium as one of the top three.
Sasaki’s decision has been one of the biggest wild cards hanging over the offseason. Since he’s coming over to the big leagues before his 25th birthday, he’s considered an amateur under MLB rules and is therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. As such, no club could be initially ruled out just based on economics, as is usually the case with other free agents.
Each team gets an annual pool of money that they are allowed to spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are in the $5-8MM range, with the smaller-market clubs mostly having the slightly larger ones. Teams can trade for more pool space but they can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, though that will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each team has roughly the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million bucks.
Sasaki is likely therefore to decide based on factors beyond money. After all, if money was his top priority, he probably would have waited until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which led to a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.
No one can say for sure what Sasaki is prioritizing, though the Dodgers and Padres have been seen as logical suitors for a while now. Both clubs are on the West Coast, which is closer to Japan, perhaps a favorable factor when considering the flights for Sasaki and his family members. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation as a whole, having made the postseason in each year going back to 2013, with a fresh World Series victory in 2024. The Padres don’t have quite the same track record of success but have been good in recent years.
Both clubs also have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, while the Padres have Yu Darvish. Some reports have suggested Sasaki and Darvish have an especially close relationship.
The Jays have been floated as a landing spot for Sasaki far less than the Dodgers or Padres, which is sensible. They are not on the West Coast. They had a strong run of contention from 2020 to 2023 but are coming off a down season. They had Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline but don’t currently have a Japanese player on the roster.
In April of 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “Some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major-league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture, major-league executives and agents say.” That piece was examining the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets when they already had Kodai Senga on the roster. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe has downplayed the importance of a club having Japanese players on its roster, either positively or negatively. “That was never a topic of discussion,” Wolfe said last month, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.
It’s possible that Sasaki will be attracted to playing in another country for other reasons. Wolfe has suggested that the Japanese media was often unkind to Sasaki, which could perhaps make it preferable for him to be in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market but it would be further away from the American media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, the media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps that would allow the Jays to promise Sasaki a more guarded environment in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city with a reputation for its diversity and relatively low crime rates.
Those are all speculative arguments, but the same could be said about the arguments for Sasaki preferring Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues about what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world to mostly guess.
Whatever he decides will likely have ripple effects into the rest of the offseason. The Padres have a tight budget and needs all over their roster. Trading Dylan Cease is reportedly one potential solution to their situation, which would perhaps become more likely if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have lots of rotation options and might consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That’s perhaps less likely with the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success thus far.
There will also be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to walk away from verbal commitments to teenagers in Latin America, as they will need to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. That will lead to those players then looking for other clubs. Some of this has seemingly already started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly going to sign Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop that had previously been committed to the Dodgers.
It won’t take long for all of these knock-on effects to really ramp up. Sasaki’s posting window closes on January 23, meaning resolution will be coming in less than a week. He can’t officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, though it’s possible an agreement could be reported before then.