Let’s talk about Jesus lizard.
Pitcher evaluation and decisions are often more about what a specific organization can tweak to a certain player than raw statistics. That is where the current game is heading.
For example, the Boston Red Sox had the lowest combined four-seam fastball and sinker usage in baseball. They took Tanner Houck, eliminated his four-seam fastball, and had him throwing sweepers 41% of the time. It worked.
Teams like the Atlanta Braves have been elite with four-seam and slider pitchers. Think Spencer Strider, Chris Sale’s resurgence, and Reynaldo López. A team like the Yankees have made their mark with cross-fire sinker-sweeper arms. Think of Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, and Jake Cousins.
The tricky thing with Jesús Luzardo is that he might not fit the Phillies-specific type on the surface and Caleb Cotham might have to think differently about how to make Luzardo the most effective pitcher he can be.
Eliminate the Sinker.
The Phillies have long preferred pitchers to carry a four-seam fastball and a sinker. It helps with eliminating potential platoon issues and setting up different off-speed weapons. Having both fastballs is a way to be more random while having effective strike-throwing weapons.
Last season, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull, and Tyler Phillips all made at least 7 starts and carried a four-seam fastball and sinker.
If you looked at last year’s bullpen you saw Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and José Ruiz all throw two fastballs.
Asking the Phillies to go away from this tendency with Luzardo might sound strange but it’s probably the best starting point for making him as effective as he can be. They do have some precedent that allows me to make this argument.
Cristopher Sánchez only throws a sinker because developing a four-seam fastball wouldn’t help. It probably wouldn’t carry promising movement numbers or enough velocity to be effective.
The Marlins were on and off again giving Luzardo a sinker. They tried in 2022 but dialed back the pitch usage in 2023 and 24. They never got the results they wanted but also had a poor process for calling it.
From 2022-24, Luzardo had roughly even usage on a rate basis with his sinker against right and left-handed hitters. Sinkers aren’t platoon-neutral pitches.
Here are the numbers for opposite-handed thrown sinkers in 2024:
LHP vs RHH
19,538 pitches: .292 BA, .460 slug, .359 wOBA, .371 xwOBA
RHP vs LHH
27,056 pitches: .284 BA, .441 slug, .357 wOBA, .373 xwOBA
Now compare these to same-sided sinkers:
RHP vs RHH
53,383 pitches: .283 BA, 407 slug, .336 wOBA, .339 xwOBA
LHP vs LHH
12,971 pitches: .267 BA, 375 slug, .315 wOBA, .314 xwOBA
The numbers are high in general because sinkers are fastballs and fastballs tend to allow the most damage but there is a clear difference. Same-sided sinkers allow less damage.
If the Phillies had Luzardo keep his sinker, they would have a different usage plan for it than the Marlins.
Cotham and the staff are big believers in same-sided sinkers. The Phillies ranked eighth in righty on righty sinker usage in 2024 and second highest on lefty on lefty usage.
So why eliminate the sinker? Wouldn’t it be better to redistribute the usage and give him multiple fastball options?
It just hasn’t worked and has been the low-hanging fruit against right-handed and left-handed hitters.
Here was Luzardo’s usage against right-handed hitters over the last three seasons (rounded):
- Four-seam fastball: 39.6%, .233 BA, .424 slug, .351 xwOBA, 18.1% whiff
- Slider: 27.4%, .231 BA, .407 slug, .245 xwOBA, 45.5% whiff
- Changeup: 24.1% usage, .207 BA, .325 slug, .285 xwOBA, 39.6% whiff
- Sinker: 8.9%, .270 BA, .460 slug, .380 xwOBA, 17.0% whiff
Now here is his usage against left-handed hitters over the same three-year span:
- Four-seam fastball: 41.4%, .253 BA, .341 slug, .342 xwOBA, 13.6% whiff
- Slider: 38.2%, .139 BA, .213 slug, .156 xwOBA, 56.2% whiff
- Changeup: 11.2%, .345 BA, .472 slug, .466 xwOBA, 41.9% whiff
- Sinker: 9.2%, .310 BA, .586 slug, .390 xwOBA, 12.5% whiff
Luzardo’s sinker is not getting whiffs or preventing damage against whoever he faces so it’s probably best to scrap the pitch entirely. It’s the first of a handful of tweaks the Phillies will probably look to make with him over the next two seasons.
The one caveat on this argument is if the Phillies find a change I cannot see. If he isn’t holding the ball effectively (that was how the Yankees fixed Luke Weaver) or has some grip change that allows the sinker to move in the air differently then this piece was pointless.