Brandon Marsh is at a crossroads

The future is as nebulous as the contents of his beard.

Since arriving in Philadelphia at the 2022 trade deadline, Brandon Marsh has accumulated 6.6 fWAR and owns a .786 OPS with 116 wRC+ across 306 games. That is on top of playing above average to sometimes elite defense in two outfield spots. So why then does it feel like the 26-year-old and the Phillies are at a crossroads?

2024 stats: 135 G, .249/.328/.419, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 108 wRC+, 32.4 K%, 10.5 BB%

What went right

Marsh turned in another solid season overall for the Phillies, even if it was a step back from his 2023. He reached a career high in home runs (16), stolen bases (19), and games played (135). Marsh continued to hit right-handed pitching well, albeit at less of a clip than he did in 2023. Still, Marsh hit .262 with a .792 OPS against righties with 32 extra-base hits in 386 plate appearances.

Marsh started the season strong with an .819 OPS and 6 home runs through the end of April before coming back to earth in May. But he caught fire again in June, hitting .298 with 4 extra base hits in just 15 games due to a hamstring injury that cost him about two weeks. But after returning from that injury, Marsh had a career day in Detroit on June 26th. He collected four hits in four at bats and drove in four of the Phillies six runs in a 6-2 win a day after the offense was shut down by Tarik Skubal.

What went wrong

Marsh’s overall numbers regressed, but his reversion of his gains against left-handed pitching were the most concerning. In 2023, Marsh had his best season against lefties, hitting .229 with a .717 OPS. Of course, those numbers aren’t ideal, but they were far and away the best showing Marsh has ever had against same sided pitching, leaving the door open to the belief that Marsh would be able to hold his own against lefties enough to be an everyday player.

That door slammed shut in 2024, possibly for good. Marsh hit just .191 with a .552 OPS in 90 PAs. A late August surge where Marsh went 5-13 against lefties prevented those numbers from being even worse. He was particularly brutal through the end of July, as he had struck out 26 times in 56 plate appearances against LHP up to that point. This regression to his previous poor career numbers was coupled with a 30 point drop in average and a 72 point drop in OPS against right-handed pitching and a strikeout rate that still sits over 30%.

The future with the Phillies

Marsh was acquired with the belief that he could develop into an everyday outfielder, but it appears solidified now that he is a platoon player. There is now over two and a half seasons worth of evidence in Philadelphia that Marsh still struggles against LHP despite improving overall since his time in Anaheim. Now, a player that mashes right-handed pitching and plays above average defense is very valuable for a contending team. But Marsh’s production against righties in 2024 wasn’t overall good enough to cancel out his near unplayability against lefties. On a team that is looking to change its lineup after another disappointing showing in the postseason, Marsh may find himself on the outside after a 1-13 showing in the postseason.

Marsh will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, thus becoming more expensive. Do the Phillies value him as much now that he’ll be making real money? Do they want to once again attempt to find him a platoon partner or do they want to replace him with someone who could play every day? With Alec Bohm’s name on the trade block looking like the biggest candidate for a “shake-up” trade, perhaps Marsh does return in 2025. But he is one of the few players that the Phillies could realistically move and who has real value in a trade. It’s far from a guarantee that Marsh will be in red pinstripes in 2025.