It ain’t great.
The best way to begin previews on a Phillies website is to discuss the division most irrelevant to their conversation. The Phillies will play each team once, most notably the A’s in a AAA stadium in Sacramento. They may face one of these teams in the World Series but that seems unlikely.
This preview series comes with an overview of the roster, five or six-ish win range predictions for each of them, and one Phillies-centric prediction.
5. Los Angeles Angels 67-72 wins
They’re a far cry from the Ohtani days when the team looked incomplete with a stars and scrubs offense and a pitching staff that could never put it together.
The best version of what I’m talking about is 2022 where Mike Trout played 119 games and was great, Ohtani finished second in MVP voting and fourth in the Cy Young race, and Taylor Ward broke out. The offense around them wasn’t good enough. Andrew Velazquez had a 52 OPS+ in 125 games, Anthony Rendon was hurt, they got nothing from their catchers and role players like Jared Walsh, Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, and David Fletcher were bad.
Now the lineup features more depth but without the same difference makers outside of Trout. Logan O’Hoppe is the most promising hitter of the bunch but needs to pull the baseball more to be a difference-making offensive player. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel look like solid players but not players you build an offense around. Ward, Luis Rengifo, and Yoán Moncada are helpful players too.
Jorge Soler was a solid pick-up to be a full-time DH and it makes sense for him to be there but the rest of their moves indicated he would get some run in the outfield. They signed Travis d’Arnaud for two years at $12 million earlier in the off-season to split catching duties with O’Hoppe but with some questions.
Is O’Hoppe just going to the bench during these games now? You can’t make Soler a part-time player but benching your 25-year-old catcher isn’t wise either.
The starting pitching staff looks incomplete. Yusei Kikuchi was a nice signing after how well he pitched with the Astros when he leaned into a lot more sliders than curveballs. Tyler Anderson should be able to maintain an ERA in the low fours with a good amount of innings. José Soriano showed off a promising 20-start sample size as a groundball pitcher.
However, the rotation lacks a true difference-maker and doesn’t make up for it in depth. Reid Detmers has to prove 2024 is not the new normal and Kyle Hendricks is being tasked as an innings-eating number five.
To round them out, the bullpen looks intriguing. Ben Joyce didn’t show off great strikeout numbers but his fastball will limit damage. Kenley Jansen should still be a reliable back-end option and Hans Crouse missed a lot of bats in a short sample last season. They will also get Robert Stephenson back after missing all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery.
The Angels off-season looks mostly solid on paper even if they feel directionless. If they finally fully pivot to a rebuild they have pieces to flip and some building blocks for fans to get behind. That just might not be a realistic option, however.
Phillies-Centric Prediction: Mickey Moniak hit’s a walk-off against the Yankees.
4. The Athletics (72-77 wins)
The Athletics have real building blocks. Brent Rooker is one of the top designated hitters in all of baseball, Lawrence Butler took a huge leap as a strong power-hitting right fielder, and JJ Bleday is starting to live up to his number-four overall pick potential (although his run might not be super sustainable). Shea Langeliers broke out into a plus-hitting catcher and Tyler Soderstrom looked like a promising first-baseman in 213 plate appearances last season.
They followed this up by spending money this off-season because they had to. It’s just questionable value.
Luis Severino signed a 3 year $67 million deal with a QO attached but is more of a mediocre innings eater. He won’t get the same defense behind him and went from a pitcher-friendly Citi Field to a AAA hitter-friendly ballpark. He did not miss enough bats to brush off these concerns.
Jeffrey Springs has struggled to stay healthy the last two seasons because of elbow issues but should still be their best rate-based starter when healthy (the Rays will fix Joe Boyle). JP Sears is at best a solid number four at this point.
The bullpen is led by Mason Miller and his electric fastball-slider combination but José Leclerc and Michel Otañez are good late-inning options behind him.
The Athletics rebuild is producing some top-end talent on offense and in the bullpen but there are two issues. They need to show more starting pitcher development and more competency in building out the rest of their roster.
Seth Brown has been a negative fWAR player for two straight seasons yet is still the starting left fielder. The best development success out of their rotation is JP Sears who is 29 and hasn’t cracked 1.5 fWAR. Zack Gelof comes with a lot of swing-and-miss concerns that need to develop.
There’s enough for them to be fine and enough to get the stench out of the entire stadium drama.
Side note: It’s ridiculous how they’re going from a top-ten TV market in the Bay Area to Vegas. It continues to make no sense how John Fisher, someone who only cares about making money, is pushing for this. Why are the other owners letting this continue too?
So yeah, the A’s lack the surrounding pieces, and top-end pitching is a major threat. Hopefully this season is a step in getting closer to finding those answers.
Phillies-Centric Prediction: Ben Bowden pitches in 3 MLB games this season.
3. Texas Rangers (82-88 wins)
Jacob deGrom is back. For how long? Who knows.
The Rangers’ offense ranked third in wRC+ in 2023 and was the backbone of a World Series championship. In 2024 they slid down to 22nd.
There are multiple reasons for this. Marcus Semien is getting older and isn’t the same caliber of hitter anymore. Adolis García’s xwOBA dropped 60 points from 2023 to 24. They had a 65 wRC+ from their designated hitters. Josh Jung was injured.
There are some reasons to hope that 2024 is a nice rebound. Joc Pederson will fix the DH problem, Jake Burger will help them hit more home runs, Josh Jung is healthy, and Wyatt Langford had a .832 OPS over the last two months of 2024. Corey Seager had a 140 wRC+ but underperformed his xwOBA by 25 points too.
The offense has a lot more reinforcements but there are still questions. Can Adolis García rebound at 31 years old? What is Evan Carter? Is there more decline on the way for Semien? They might need one of these answers to be in their favor.
Their starting pitching staff looks interesting. Kumar Rocker looked fantastic as a late-season callup. The walks were a little high but he never had that problem in the minors. deGrom is still an elite arm when he pitches and Nathan Eovaldi is still a very solid number-two starter.
After Jon Gray, the rotation will need some answers. Tyler Mahle is coming off Tommy John surgery and Jack Leiter looked like a disaster in 35 innings last season. A Leiter breakout would be huge for them but his stuff did not play up in the majors and he just doesn’t throw strikes consistently.
The back-end bullpen production was a strength of the Rangers last season but Kirby Yates and David Robertson are gone. Robert Garcia looked great with the Nationals but still has to prove he can be a late-inning reliever.
The rest of the pen is mostly uninspiring veterans. Chris Martin returned and still misses bats without walking guys but is 38 years old. Shawn Armstrong, Holby Milner, and Luke Jackson are 33+ years old.
There is enough top-end talent and substance to buy them being pretty good and contending for a wild-card spot but the bullpen and deGrom likely getting injured again make it hard to fully buy-in.
Phillies-Centric Prediction: Holby Milner strikes out Bryce Harper on three pitches.
2. Seattle Mariners (83-89 wins)
The Mariners saw several key players regress last season leading to a disappointing setback in their quest to overtake the Astros.
JP Crawford went from a 133 OPS+ in 2023 to 86 in 24, Julio Rodriguez from 130 to 116, Jorge Polanco from 114 to 93, and Mitch Garver from 138 to 85.
All of these hitters return which should mean the team bounces back right? I’m not sure how likely that is.
JP Crawford is the first case. From 2020-2022, Crawford hit .259 with a .693 OPS and a 99 OPS+. Then he dramatically improved his ability to pull flyballs for one season and regressed to earth.
It’s fair to say Crawford will have a much better season in 2024 but I doubt he is close to his 2023 form. There is a lot more evidence he is roughly a league-average hitter.
The two biggest differences in Jorge Polanco were his massive regression against four-seam fastballs and a jump in strikeouts. After hitting .291 with a .620 slugging against four-seams in 2023, he fell to .216 with a .422 slug. His strikeout rate went from 25.7% in 2023 to 29.3% in 24.
Part of this could be because the ball moves differently in Seattle which would still be the case. After all, he was brought back.
The strikeout issue also wasn’t a one-year trend. He saw a similar decline from 2022 to 2023 when he went from 21.3% to 25.7%. This might just be a growing concern for the rest of his career.
Mitch Garver is 34 now and has been relegated to the bench. Last year was also the first time he played more than 100 games in half a decade.
Expecting slight improvement from JP Crawford and Julio Rodriguez is fair. Having Randy Arozarena in left field for a full season is huge but there are several questions.
Victor Robles had a 155 OPS+ in 77 games. He overperformed his xwOBA by over 30 points and has a career 82 OPS+ before 2024. Mitch Haniger is their projected DH, is 34, and has an 80 OPS+ over the last two seasons. Is a combination of Dylan Moore and 37-year-old Donovan Solano good enough for second base?
The starting pitching staff is great and Andrés Muñoz will close plenty of games out of the bullpen but it is hard to believe in Jerry Dipoto’s process for fixing the rest of the club. There are too many holes in his plan for the offense is the bullpen is really banking on Matt Brash coming back from Tommy John to fix the non-Muñoz issues.
Phillies-Centric Prediction: Nick Castellanos takes Neftalí Feliz deep to left-center field again. 1. Houston Astros (83-89 wins)
They traded Kyle Tucker, lost Alex Bregman in free agency, and are trying to play Jose Altuve in left field. Ronel Blanco is due for regression.
The Astros are also a cockroach and you can’t kill them.
While they certainly lost a lot, enough for this prediction to be bold, it’s easy to forget some of the upgrades they brought in.
The Astros ranked 24th in wRC+ from their first basemen last season and 28th in fWAR in 2024. Christian Walker has been a consistent force over the last three seasons and is going to a ballpark for pull-heavy right-handed hitters.
Issac Paredes is also going to be a great addition for them. He raked in Tampa Bay over the last three seasons thanks to the most aggressive pull-heavy approach on flyballs in the sport. The right-handed third baseman joins the best park in baseball for his style of hitting, unlike his previous stop at Wrigley Field.
The lineup’s depth is not great but the core of Yordan Alvarez, Altuve, Paredes, Walker, and Yainer Diaz should still be enough to alleviate offensive concerns. While losing Bregman’s defense is concerning, moving Altuve to the outfield, and the addition of Walker at first base should certainly make up for some of the difference.
The starting pitching staff will also carry a lot of options. Framber Valdez is an established top-of-the-rotation starter, Hunter Brown pitched like an ace his last three months of 2024, and the rest of the rotation carries solid options.
They will also get plenty of help as the season goes on. Lance McCullers has been throwing this spring, Luis Garcia should be back at some point this season, and Cristian Javier could return after the all-star break.
The bullpen depth is not very good but Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu will help them finish out plenty of games as well.
They’re not a great team and certainly not a complete one. There is a real possibility they’re too old and they lost way too much talent in the off-season but they look like the best team in the AL West on paper.
Phillies-Centric Prediction: Jon Singleton doesn’t make the roster out of camp.