AL Central Preview

It ain’t great here either.

The AL Central was great for content last season. The Minnesota Twins collapsed, the Chicago White Sox were the biggest joke in baseball, and everyone got to make fun of the Yankees for only this division before facing a real team.

Four of these teams look close and it smells like a division that goes down to the wire. However, that might not be a strong compliment to any team in this division.

In case you did not read the AL West preview, this preview provides three things: a fun write-up on every team, a five or six-win range prediction, and a Phillies-centric prediction for each team.

Here is a list of the Division Preview Series done so far:

• AL West Preview

5. Chicago White Sox (55-60 wins)

It can’t be as bad as last year, right? That has to be impossible.

The White Sox got the worst part of a long-term rebuild out of the way, the season without hope. There weren’t a ton of fun call-ups, or strong developments (outside of Garrett Crochet), and just about everyone on the roster was not considered a long-term building block.

They will be bad this year but there will at least be some hope because prospects will make their debuts. Edgar Quero should be a major upgrade over Korey Lee, Colson Montgomery should help the infield, and Noah Schultz is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Kyle Teel could help out later in the season and even Hagen Smith at some point.

Prospect debuting as the season goes on isn’t the only way the White Sox improved this off-season.

Josh Rojas isn’t a great player but is a lot better than Nicky Lopez, and a Mike Tauchman/Austin Slater platoon doesn’t exactly put butts in seats but it’s better than Dominic Fletcher.

Miguel Vargas played 42 games after getting traded for Michael Kopech and hit .104 with a .387 OPS and -1.0 bWAR. It has to be impossible for him to play worse next season.

Above everything listed, the best place of improvement for the White Sox in 2025 could come from Luis Robert Jr.

Robert has dealt with injuries, playing 100 games or more only twice in five seasons but is as talented as anyone. He leaned into contact quality over quantity in 2023 and broke out as a top-tier center fielder in baseball with a .857 OPS and elite glove defensively.

In 2024, Robert started strong with a .804 OPS in his first 43 games but a .555 OPS in his final 57 games.

Someone of Robert’s talent shouldn’t be that bad and there could be plenty of on and off-field reasons but it’s inexcusable. This is also a player who is a year removed from being great, is 27 years old, and should have every motivation to play well to get traded in August.

If Robert puts together a great four months and is traded at the deadline then that’s already an improvement for them from 2024.

The pitching staff comes with less hope outside of Schultz. Sean Burke had a solid cup of coffee and is likely making the initial rotation out of camp. Jonathan Cannon doesn’t carry a high ceiling (or floor) to be someone to watch, Bryse Wilson is starting games again, and they signed Martín Pérez to throw.

Davis Martin does come with a fun changeup at 90 mph with a ton of dive. The rest of his arsenal isn’t amazing but the changeup is a lot of fun.

The less said about the bullpen the better. Gus Varland showed some interesting stuff last season as a former Dodgers arm but there isn’t much after him. Does anyone remember Justin Anderson?

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Nick Maton takes Zack Wheeler deep.

4. Detroit Tigers (80-85 wins)

The Tigers followed up an 86-win season with key additions like Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, and Tommy Khanle in free agency. Jackson Jobe likely break camp in the starting rotation. Why pick them fourth?

There are some questions about the overall roster. While there could be high expectations for Colt Keith and Jace Jung, there are some worries about how the overall infield is structured.

Keith looks like a solid big-league hitter but might not produce enough power and walks for first base. He is moving there for a worse defensive second baseman in Gleyber Torres who should rebound but is also going to a pitcher-friendly park in Detroit. Jace Jung’s cup of coffee last season showed one key issue, he’s not a third baseman at all and will be asked to play there for a full season.

Sweeney looks like a strong defensive shortstop but the other positions remain big questions and I’m not sure they’re going to hit enough to make up for it. Torres has a solid track record and Jung is still a top prospect but Keith needs to do a lot more damage for first base to work.

Kerry Carpenter was amazing last season but there isn’t enough to say he is going to say a .900 OPS hitter. It may stick but the larger sample size of his career indicates he’s more like an .800-850 OPS hitter against RHP than .994.

This is all to say that it’s a little hard to buy into the offense doing enough to make up for a bad infield defense. Their outfield of Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Matt Vierling will help but infield defense is generally more important even in a massive outfield like Detroit has.

The starting pitching and bullpen will be strong. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, and Jobe will make for a great rotation. The bullpen a bunch of nasty arms combined with AJ Hinch pushing the buttons.

It’s a solid team overall but the hype might be a little premature for the entire roster. Alex Bregman didn’t want to go there but that’s the kind of player that would’ve made me feel a lot more comfortable with the overall roster construction.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Matt Vierling hits a triple off Jesús Luzardo.

3. Kansas City Royals (82-87 wins)

The Royals benefitted a lot from winning 12 games against the White Sox last year and that probably isn’t happening again but there is still plenty to feel solid about. There is still a strong identity, a very good rotation, and a strong bullpen.

Bobby Witt Jr. established himself as one of the best players in all of baseball. He plays a gold glove shortstop, steals bases, gets big hits, and crushes home runs. He’s a five tool player who will win an MVP one day.

The rest of the team and lineup is at least interesting. I don’t love Jonathan India in that ballpark but he does add the plate discipline the overall lineup is lacking. Vinnie Pasquantino has been more of a solid first-baseman than great but there still feels like another gear he can unlock.

There are also regression candidates. Salvador Perez revived his career with a 115 wRC+ and .360 xwOBA but is also about to be 35 years old. DHing more might help him but the Royals probably still want him to catch 75+ games this upcoming season. It’s possible the magic starts to run low.

Their bottom four in the lineup are less than ideal. Maikal Garcia took a massive step back next season offensively with a 69 wRC+. That’s not viable and he projects to be their starting third baseman again.

Kyle Isbel is a great glove but had an 81 wRC+ last season and the overall lineup might not carry the same weight. MJ Melendez is a mediocre platoon player, and Hunter Renfroe is old and not very good.

Betting on the offense not collapsing is risky but it’s also not like the Royals were lucky last season. Their run differential backs up their record, they didn’t win a ton of one-run games, and most of their key players are still young.

On the pitching side, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen pitch a lot of innings and manage contact, especially their top three.

Kris Bubic is returning to the rotation, which could be a solid move. He throws harder now and the fastball has played a lot better over the last two seasons. His changeup is a plus pitch and his slider can get whiffs against lefties. It’s a much more inspiring decision than the last time he was asked to be a big-league starter.

The backend of their bullpen looks strong on paper. Lucas Erceg dominated last season as a flame thrower who manages contact and gets whiffs. Hunter Harvey struggled after getting traded but was mostly because of two really bad outings and injuries at the end of the season.

Carlos Estévez has home run regression concerns but going to Kansas City makes those issues less prevalent. This also allows Matt Quantraro to keep deploying Erceg in leverage situations while still keeping a solid closer. Sam Long also looks like a solid left handed option out of the arm-barn.

There’s a chance this all backfires but the Royals don’t carry a ton of glaring weaknesses and have the top end talent for the team to thrive. There’s certainly a possibility for regression but they should still be a strong team in 2025.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Michael Lorenzen comes off the bench as a pinch hitter and hits Kyle Tyler’s cutter for a single

2. Minnesota Twins (82-88 wins)

The front-line talent of the Twins stands out. Carlos Correa looked like a top-tier shortstop last season, Byron Buxton looked a top-tier center fielder, Matt Wallner is a fantastic left-handed hitter, the top of the rotation is good, and Jhoan Duran closing games.

Injuries and depth continue to be a question mark. Correa is a great player when healthy but played just 86 games last year. Buxton has played 100+ games just twice in his career and Wallner has been limited the last two seasons. Their health will always be a major question mark.

The surrounding players on the roster look solid but they need a bit more. Royce Lewis took a step back last season (and also couldn’t stay healthy). Jose Miranda and Ty France at first base is less than ideal. Willie Castro is fine but doesn’t hit enough as their projected DH.

The lineup will hit when the stars are healthy but they could still use a little more especially since they likely won’t stay healthy.

Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober look solid as a top three but they could use a back-end option taking a leap.

David Festa could be that guy. He has been very good at recording strikeouts but needs to do a better job of getting weak contact. The good news is that he’s added a sinker to go along with his fastball, changeup, and slider. All are graded out as plus pitches.

A very good bullpen, a solid rotation, and an overall strong lineup make the Twins the most well-balanced team in this division but they have to stay healthy and play more consistent baseball next season. It’s a tough team to fully buy into.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Eiberson Castellano throws a no-hitter

1. Cleveland Guardians (83-88 wins)

The Guardians formula to winning 92 games last season was overworking their nasty bullpen, playing strong defense, and getting just enough offense out of José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and of course David Fry. The starters did just enough to keep the formula going.

That rotation made some additions this off-season. Shane Bieber returned on a one-year deal after missing almost all of last year with Tommy John, they traded for Luis L. Ortiz and Slade Cecconi who both carry the type of stuff the Guardians like to fix, and signed John Means whos coming off Tommy John.

Bieber and Means won’t play key roles right away, however. Neither are projected to return until midseason.

There are two key question marks with the Guardians. The first being their offense. They traded Josh Naylor and are banking on Carlos Santana to fill the void. Kyle Manzardo should look more comfortable in year two and Lane Thomas is there for a full season.

The lineup just feels fragile. One or two things going wrong for them could sink their entire season and there are real concerns.

Ramirez is coming off a 141 wRC+ season but is now 32 years old. His xwOBA declined by 30 points last season. There aren’t many other trends to be worried about yet but it’s easy to see at least a slight decline.

Carlos Santana has hit baseballs forever but is almost 39 years old. This just might be the year he’s finally hitting a hard decline. Outside of Manzardo, they don’t possess many talented young hitters who are ready right now. Bryan Rocchio is more of a glove-first shortstop who had a 79 wRC+ last year, Bo Naylor had a 74, and Juan Brito has no MLB experience and was just fine in AAA last season.

There’s just a chance this offense takes a nose-dive. They ranked 17th in wRC+ as a unit last season and there is a possibility it gets even worse in 2025.

The second concern is if the bullpen will stay healthy, specifically their top four arms.

Here is how many games and innings each of their top-four arms pitched during the 2024 regular and postseason.

• Emmanuel Clase: 81 games, 82.1 innings
• Cade Smith: 83 games, 85.1 innings
• Hunter Gaddis: 86 games, 82.0 innings
• Tim Herrin: 84 games, 74.0 innings

This is reckless behavior and there may be more issues this season. Each of these relievers were dominant last season but there are plenty of examples of bullpen arms being overworked for a season with downstream issues the following year.

The formula they’re presenting just has a lot of questions. Can they do it again without any issues? Probably not.

On the other hand, they play in the AL Central and none of these teams are good so maybe they can. It’s possible worrying about the Guardians bullpen was stupid.

Phillies-Centric Prediction: Vince Velasquez pitches in a postseason game