Pitching is their strength, but that doesn’t mean the Phils don’t have some things to watch as pitchers report to Clearwater.
On Sunday night, the Eagles destroyed the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Now, just three days later, Phillies pitchers and catchers are reporting to Clearwater for the start of spring training.
Quite a nice handoff, huh?
As the city readies itself for a parade on Friday, the arms that Phils fans hope will bring the Bryce Harper era its first World Series title will begin limbering up, throwing bullpen sessions, popping mitts and trying to avoid UCL injuries in the warm, Florida sun.
This off-season, team president Dave Dombrowski found it impossible to make major changes to a lineup that has consistently been one of the 5-10 best in the Majors over the last three years but seems to stall for long stretches at inopportune times. Instead, he chose to strengthen a strength and add more pitching, specifically to the starting rotation.
But while adding Jesus Luzardo to an already strong group of starters was a master stroke, the bullpen appears to have more question marks than it did at the end of the ‘24 season, and the rotation has some questions to answer, too. Here are my five top pitching storylines to watch down in Clearwater over the next month.
Who’s the Closer?
At last year’s trade deadline, Dombrowski decided his bullpen needed one more arm. Sure, they had Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering dominating in the back end of the ‘pen, but Dombrowski decided to go out and add one more high-impact arm and traded for Carlos Estevez. And while Estevez wasn’t as effective in Philadelphia as he had been with the Angels, he was a net-positive during the regular season.
In their four-game series loss to the Mets, the entire bullpen imploded, Estevez included. There still seems no good reason why it happened, but it did. Hoffman (the Toronto Blue Jays) and Estevez (the Kansas City Royals) have both moved on, and Dombrowski essentially replaced only one of them when he signed Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5 million deal.
The assumption is Romano, the former Toronto closer who was injured most of last year, will be the de facto 9th inning guy. After all, he posted a 2.37 ERA in 95 games across three seasons (2021-23) as the Blue Jays’ closer, but the 31-year-old had a down year in ‘24 and underwent elbow surgery last summer. Dombrowski is hoping for a bounce-back season and for him to straight-up replace Hoffman’s production in high leverage spots.
Dombrowski is also hoping Kerkering takes another step forward in this, his second season in the big leagues. Jose Alvarado lost his ability to strike batters out as he dealt with family issues in Venezuela that forced him to leave the team for a couple weeks, will he find that missing mojo? And he’s also relying heavily on Jose Ruiz, a 30-year-old journeyman who put up a 1.99 ERA over his final 25 appearances last season. It’s not the largest sample size. Matt Strahm was outstanding all season, and he’ll likely find himself in some closing situations as well.
No one has been given the closer’s role, so who will take it?
Which Prospects Step Up?
All eyes will be on Andrew Painter, but we won’t see him pitch in any Grapefruit League games this spring. The team wants to bring him along slowly as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, limiting his innings early in the season so he can be an impact call-up in mid-summer. But there are other arms to keep an eye on, too.
Moises Chace, stolen from the Orioles in the Gregory Soto trade, will continue to make regular starts in Reading or Lehigh Valley once the season starts, but don’t be surprised if you see him in the Majors this year, either as a starter or even a high leverage reliever late in the season. Chace struck out 35 batters in 19.2 innings after arriving in Reading, and he’s quickly emerged as a fringe top-100 prospect in all of baseball.
Other players to watch include Mick Abel, the former top-100 prospect who has struggled mightily to find command and control of his arsenal in AAA. Is this the year the 23-year-old finally figures it out? Control specialist Jean Cabrera, starter Seth Johnson, and bullpen possibility Michael Mercado should also be interesting to watch.
The Phils will likely need a few of these guys to help out this season.
Ranger Suarez Contract Year
Suarez had one of the weirdest pitching seasons I can ever remember a Phillies starter having in 2024. In 16 starts through June 25, Suarez pitched 98 1⁄3 innings and posted an ERA of 1.83. Batters hit .199 against him with a .549 OPS. In his final 11 starts, the last eight of which came after he missed nearly two months with back spasms, he posted a 6.54 ERA, opponents batted .315 against him with an OPS of .885. Last spring, Suarez came into spring training on time, dominated the Grapefruit League and carried that into the regular season, only to watch another injury submarine his Cy Young-caliber start.
How hard with Suarez push himself this spring? Will we see him trying to be as effective early in the hopes of setting up big things in the year ahead of free agency?
Can Zack Wheeler Keep This Up?
Zack Wheeler should have a Cy Young under his belt by now, and if he has anything close to the type of season he had in 2024, he’ll be the media’s sentimental pick to finally get one after finishing runner-up twice.
Wheeler enters 2025 at 35 years old. He pitched 200 innings a season ago, didn’t miss a start, and once again dominated in his long postseason appearance against the Mets in Game 1 of the NLDS. It feels like a given that he’s going to continue to be the ace this staff needs, but is there a concern about the number of innings he’s amassed over the last seven years?
Guys like Wheeler have pitched well into their 40s, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do the same. He doesn’t have the same amount of innings on his arm after missing a season and a half with Tommy John surgery in 2014. That said, I have a little bit of a concern over his workload the last four years and a potential drop-off that could occur as a result.
Yes, it’s a bit pessimistic of me, but I know you’re all thinking it, too.
Jesus Luzardo Bounce Back
In 2022 and ‘23, Luzardo emerged as one of the best young left-handed starters in baseball. He posted a 3.32 ERA in 18 starts in ‘22 and followed that up with a 32-start season and a 4.0 WAR campaign in 2023 with Miami, helping them earn a wild card spot and a postseason start against the Phillies.
Last year, Luzardo struggled with injuries, specifically, a lumbar stress reaction and left elbow tightness that limited him to just 12 starts and a 5.00 ERA. Injuries are nothing new for Luzardo, as he’s thrown 100+ innings just twice in his career, and never more than the 178 1⁄3 he tossed two seasons ago.
But if he’s healthy, he should be a terrific No. 3 starter, or someone the Phils use in between Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the rotation to separate the righties.
There are other pitching storylines to watch, specifically Taijuan Walker’s ability to show he’s healthy and effective enough in spring training to be traded somewhere, whether the Phils will move to a six-man rotation once Painter is ready to be promoted, and Aaron Nola’s penchant to alternate subpar seasons with good ones.
There’s a lot of content for us to fill over the next few weeks, so we’ll make sure to circle back to those.