The strength of the team may have gotten even better.
Current depth chart (via Fangraphs)
- MLB: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, Joe Ross
- Triple-A: Andrew Painter, Tyler Phillips, Michael Mercado, Seth Johnson, Mick Abel, Kyle Tyler, Griff McGarry, Nabil Crismatt, Koyo Aoyagi, Gabe Mosser
- Double-A: Moisés Chace, Jean Cabrera, Christian McGowan, Braeden Fausnaught, Mitch Neunborn, Matt Osterberg, Noah Skirrow
- High-A: Alex McFarlane, Mavis Graves, Gabriel Barbosa, Luke Russo, Braydon Tucker, Casey Steward, Estibenzon Jimenez, Micah Ottenbreit
- Low-A: Enrique Segura, Juan Amarante, Danyony Pulido, Pedro Reyes, Giuseppe Velasquez, Cam Brown
Position battles during Spring Training
Taijuan Walker vs. Joe Ross
This may not be much of a battle, as the Phillies signed Ross to a one year, $4M contract in December with plans to have him serve as a swingman, while Walker is fighting for a spot on the roster in general. Nevertheless, both pitchers would be the next man up in the event of an injury so this spring will likely determine who is SP 6. Both would have similar functions out of the bullpen, and Ross’ performance there last season puts him firmly ahead of Walker. Despite being owed $36M over the next two seasons, Walker is facing an uphill battle to make the roster, and it isn’t known whether he would accept a demotion to Triple-A.
Important contract details
Ranger Suárez is pitching in the last year of team control and is scheduled to be a free agent next winter. He had a historic start to 2024 before injuries slowed him down and led to an ineffective second half. Nevertheless, Suárez is set to cash in as one of the best starters available in next season’s free agent class. Wheeler, Sánchez, and Nola are all locked up through 2027 with the latter two under contract through 2030. Luzardo is under team control through 2026 via arbitration.
Overview
It’s not hard to see how the Phillies may have one of, if not the best rotation in baseball this season. After all, they did finish 2024 third in fWAR (16.0), tied for sixth in ERA (3.81), and fourth in innings pitched (903). That was with no set fifth starter for most of the year, Taijuan Walker being one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and Ranger Suárez missing a month with a back injury.
Philadelphia is returning their four top starters and dramatically upgraded their fifth spot with Luzardo, assuming he stays healthy. J.T. Realmuto may have said it best when he told MLB.com that the Phillies might have “a No. 1 and maybe four No. 2s.” And that is with prized pitching prospect Andrew Painter set to debut sometime in the summer.
But all of that doesn’t mean there are no concerns. Wheeler, despite his brilliance, will turn 35 in May. He is quickly approaching the age in which pitchers start to diminish. However, his early career injuries may have actually prolonged his effectiveness in a strange twist of fate, as he has much less mileage on his arm than other starters his age. In fact, Wheeler has thrown less career innings (1,578.2) than Aaron Nola (1,621.1) despite being a full three years older and having debuted two years earlier.
Nola had an under the radar season in the first year of his new seven year, $172M contract. His 199.1 IP with a 3.57 ERA was overshadowed by the rest of the rotation but was still an above average season. This year however, he will have to try and conquer his odd year curse. Dating back to his lone All-Star season in 2018, Nola has a 3.07 ERA in even years and a 4.31 ERA in odd years. He’s alternated good seasons with sub-par ones. If that trend continues, 2025 would be a down year. Nola may not be the Phillies second best starter anymore (which is no insult to him), but the Phillies still need him to be an above average starter.
That second best starter mantle may have been passed to Cristopher Sánchez, who took a tremendous leap in his age 27 season and made the All-Star team. He will have to prove it wasn’t a fluke and that he can do it again, but all the peripheral numbers point to it being repeatable. Sánchez’ changeup was among the best offspeed pitches in the sport and his groundball rate of over 58% was also among the league’s best. Sánchez has looked dominant so far this spring and is sporting an extra 3-4 MPH on his fastball. The young lefty may be primed for a national breakout year.
Ranger Suárez has some things to prove in 2025. Like mentioned above, he started on a blistering pace, carrying a sub-2 ERA through Memorial Day with a miniscule 0.82 WHIP. He looked destined to be a Cy Young Award favorite. But he started to have issues with back pain that limited him to three starts in July before landing on the IL on July 27th. Suárez returned about a month later and made seven more regular season starts but struggled to ramp back up to his previous form, posting a 5.74 ERA and averaging just a little over four innings per start. It was the second season in a row that Suárez missed around a month of playing time and then took an extended period of time to build back up. Suárez isn’t “injury prone” but it does seem like it takes him longer than other pitchers to fully recover his stamina after a layoff. If he wants to fully take advantage of his upcoming free agency opportunity, he will need to finish the season healthy while continuing the elite pitching he’s shown when he’s on the field.
Jesús Luzurdo was a rather major acquisition that mostly flew under the radar, but he has a chance to be another coin in the treasure trove that is the Phillies rotation. Just two years ago, Luzardo was starting a playoff game against the Phillies in Philadelphia fresh off of a 4 WAR season. But he too comes with the health caveat, as Luzardo made just 12 starts last season due to a lumbar stress reaction that ended his season in late June. He was ineffective in his short season, posting a 5.00 ERA and a career low 21% strikeout rate. If he is able to stay healthy and resemble the pitcher he was in 2022 and 2023, he is a massive upgrade to the Phillies fifth starter spot and would be in line to replace Suárez if/when the latter leaves in free agency.
Finally, Andrew Painter is waiting in the wings to make his debut some time mid-season which could be a huge boost to an already stacked rotation. To be determined exactly what the Phillies plans are for how to slot the top pitching prospect into the rotation if everyone is healthy, but it’s inevitable that more than five starting pitchers will be needed. Taijuan Walker (assuming he’s still on the team) and Joe Ross will be the first two in line to claim a rotation spot in the event of an injury that occurs before Painter’s debut. After that, the depth gets suspect, as it would be left to the trio of Tyler Phillips, Michael Mercado, and Seth Johnson to pitch meaningful innings. The Phillies are set up relatively better than most teams to sustain one or maybe two short term injuries to starting pitchers, but an extended absence by one of their staff prior to Painter’s arrival could get dicey.