Are you ready for some negativity?!?!?
The 2025 season is upon us. We’ll preview the upcoming year by going around the diamond and look at how the Phillies are stacking up both at the major league level and down on the farm.
Alright, it’s been a week of positivity about the team’s current catching situation. They have still one of the better catchers in the game in J.T. Realmuto, even if he is falling further away from the top spot any longer. They a bit of depth behind Realmuto, even if it is not the greatest of options to choose from. They have an exciting heir apparent to ascend to the top spot in a few years time.
It’s easy to make a few predictions about the team use numbers, but instead, let’s talk about the bigger picture.
Prediction #1 – J.T. Realmuto will catch more than 125 games….because he has to
The biggest issue all week as we’ve talked about this group is Realmuto’s playing time. The team wants to use him less as a way to preserve him for what they hope is a lengthy playoff run. The actual goal the team has in mind fluctuates at times, but it’s probably safe to say that they want him to squat behind the plate 110-115 times, other appearances at DH and first base also in the cards.
Here’s the thing. The player behind Realmuto has to be productive in whatever time he is playing and, well, color me skeptical that that will actually happen.
Rafael Marchan has pretty much always had a good reputation with his glove as a catcher. It’s how he’s gotten to be on the prospect map, but he’s also been good at the plate the past few years. In 2021, he had a wRC+ of 45 across all levels he played at, a wRC+ of 83 the following season. In 2023, he took a major step forward with a 117 wRC+, which started to lead to calls for his receiving more time over Garrett Stubbs as backup catcher, but the team kept him in the minors in the interest of preserving depth at the position. Last year, he didn’t hit quite as well in the minors, but had a 146 wRC+ in limited major league time. That number, coupled with his being out of options, has led to his having the inside track on the backup catcher spot, the one to benefit from more exposure in the starting lineup.
The issue is that he’s been hurt in his career. A lot. A quick check and we can see that he’s played in:
- 88 games in 2021
- 70 games in 2022
- 55 games in 2023
- 55 games in 2024
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets hurt again this season, necessitating Stubbs to return to the majors. That would mean a far inferior option for Rob Thomson to choose from….in which he’d probably just write Realmuto’s name into the lineup.
All this to say, my guess is that Realmuto plays more than the team is planning for right now, mostly because someone is either hurt or bad behind him. It’s not an ideal situation, particularly since they’re giving so much thought and planning to Realmuto getting out from the plate more, but as they say about the best laid plans….
Prediction #2 – Even though Realmuto plays more, he plays well
Why do we all feel like Realmuto’s 2024 was not that great?
Thirteen catchers last season had 400 or plate appearances. Realmuto’s 109 wRC+ was right smack in the middle, ranking seventh amongst those thirteen. His wOBA of .326 tied for fifth. His .429 slugging percentage? Also seventh.
What is so bad about that? Sure, his strikeout rate was up again, 24.7% fourth among those thirteen catchers. His defensive numbers, pretty much no matter where you look, took another small step backwards…
…but there was some good news.
There are some good under the hood numbers that indicate maybe last year should have been a little bit better. That’s a lot of red that, if you click through the years prior, don’t really see much change year over year. The chase rates and the whiff rates are a concern. It’s what makes Realmuto’s lows so frustrating when he is stuck in them.
Those red numbers though should make us feel a little bit better that the stats Realmuto will put in 2025 are going to improve relative to last year’s final tallies. Improvement from him would go quite the long way to making the team’s lineup a little longer, a little deeper.