The Phillies are still searching for a stable group of starters.
Last year, the Phillies outfield was arguably their biggest weak link from a roster standpoint. The unit that mostly comprised of Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas finished the regular season with a collective .692 OPS, good for 18th best among all MLB outfielders. Simply put, they were around league average, which wasn’t good enough.
Castellanos had a solid season and a strong postseason, but the days in which he could prove to be a real difference maker like his contract suggests are long gone. Marsh regressed from his encouraging 2024 season, especially against left-handed pitching. Rojas couldn’t prove that he could hit Major League pitching enough to stay a starter despite his world class defense.
Gone are Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays, two failed attempts at finding platoon partners for Marsh and/or hitters that could out-hit Rojas’ defense. Enter Max Kepler, the latest attempt at finding a solution, even a temporary one, to an outfield that is lacking in offense. The hope is that Kepler can stay healthy and recapture the form he had in 2023 where he hit 24 home runs with an .816 OPS and provided 2.9 WAR. The health factor is key, as Kepler is coming off a disappointing season in which he suffered hip and knee injuries and finished it having surgery on his abdomen. Those injuries resulted in a .682 OPS and a career low 8 home runs in 105 games. Mainly, the goal for Kepler is to be better than Merrifield and Hays, which is admittedly not a high bar to clear. If he can provide around 2 WAR, the one-year deal would be worth it.
However, Kepler is penciled in to start in left field most days, not platoon with Marsh as both are left-handed. Marsh will play center, the position he originally played when he arrived in Philadelphia at the 2022 trade deadline. The team believed that he could be their long-term, everyday center fielder when they acquired him in a trade with the Angels.
Despite improving a great deal since then, Marsh still struggles against left-handed pitching. His first half against lefties was particularly brutal, as he struck out 25 times in just 56 plate appearances for a strikeout rate of 44.6%. He rebounded a bit after the All-Star break albeit in a small sample size, hitting .276 against lefties with 8 Ks in 34 PAs. Marsh continuing that trend of holding his own and forcing his way into being an everyday player would be a godsend for the Phillies.
But that wasn’t the most disappointing part about his 2024. Marsh is still a valuable player despite his struggles against lefties because he mashes right-handed pitching. Except, he regressed heavily there in 2024 as well. Marsh hit righties at a .292 clip in 2023 with an .864 OPS. In 2024 however, those numbers fell to .262 and .792 respectively. His strikeout rate also rose from around 28% to 31% against righties. Marsh re-establishing himself as at least a strong side platoon option that plays above average defense would be the floor of expectations. The ceiling would be doing that and improving against lefties.
Nick Castellanos essentially is what he is at this point. He is a solid middle to bottom third of the order bat. He will have long cold stretches where he is an absolute zero at the plate. But then there are times where he explodes, like the 2024 NLDS where he was one of the main reasons the Phillies even won one game. Castellanos being an All-Star and posting another 1.5 WAR season like 2023 would be nice, but the more likely scenario is he ends right around league average with his bat in 2025 much like he did in 2024, which is probably the best one can hope for.
Johan Rojas is on the outside looking in, a very different position than he was exactly one year ago. The Phillies gave Rojas every opportunity to seize the starting center field job in 2024, but he was demoted to Triple-A by mid-June. Injuries forced him back to the MLB roster after a short stint in the minors, but it was clear that the Phillies were not happy with how his bat was progressing. He finished the 2024 season with a meager slash line of .243/.279/.322 and looked completely overmatched by good pitching.
Instead of promising him the job out of camp like last year, the Phillies are making Rojas earn playing time. To his credit, he played well in winter ball and has put together some good at-bats thus far this spring. If Rojas is able to at the very least hit LHP enough or get on base enough to be a weakside platoon partner with Marsh, it would be a major development. The absolute best-case would-be Rojas hitting well overall, but the number of opportunities to show he can stick as an everyday player are dwindling.
Something to keep an eye on is the progression of Edmundo Sosa in playing the outfield. The utility infielder has spent time in left and center this spring, seemingly opening up the possibility that he could find playing time there in the regular season. If Sosa can play both positions in a competent manner, he would offer an interesting platoon option for Marsh and possibly Kepler. He is likely to see some regression from his strong 2024, but Sosa is still arguably the Phillies best hitter off of the bench. Giving him an opportunity to play more may be a benefit. It may also expose his free-swinging tendencies. At a minimum, he would likely provide more offense than Rojas.
Weston Wilson was the favorite to win the last bench spot and play some outfield, but his oblique strain will keep him out of action for at least the next six weeks. Perhaps Kody Clemens or Buddy Kennedy claims that final spot and spend time in the outfield. But if we’re talking true best-case scenario, Gabriel Rincones Jr. would continue his blistering spring pace to find himself getting promoted at some point this season, despite his lack of a clear fit on the roster being left-handed. The really optimistic scenario would be Justin Crawford knocking on the door of the Majors by the end of the season, but that is very unlikely as he has only played 40 games in Double-A.
Kepler, Marsh, and Castellanos will likely be the Opening Day outfield barring injury. Everything after that is a question. Can Kepler stay healthy and productive enough to be an everyday left fielder? Can Marsh get back to destroying RHP? Will Castellanos find a way to shorten his cold streaks? Will Sosa be the RH platoon bat the OF needs? What is Rojas’ role? Who will claim the final spot on the bench? The easiest way to understand the best-case scenario for the outfield is that those questions are rendered moot because of the starters’ performance or adequate solutions to the lack of depth are found.