Go big or go home, right? RIGHT?!
The 2025 season is upon us. We’ll preview the upcoming year by going around the diamond and look at how the Phillies are stacking up both at the major league level and down on the farm.
If you want to engulf yourself in stat by stat speculations that will probably end up being wildly off the mark, go nuts. If you’d rather whimsically skedaddle to the very brink of optimism, come with me.
Prediction #1: Christopher Sanchez will lead MLB in complete games…again
It is insane that back in 2015, 24 pitchers threw two or more complete games and, mostly steadily, by last season that number shrank to three, which was a tie at the top across both leagues. I believe the numbers bear out that Sanchez has as good a chance as anyone to be back in that company again this season, if not in a class by himself.
Cris had eight outings last year where he went 7+ innings. He had three where he threw 100+ pitches and only one of those came in a 7+ inning start, a 101 pitch, three hit shutout against the Marlins on June 28th. This to say: when he’s deep into a game, he’s usually cruising.
Sanchez posted the fifth least pitches per inning (15.4) in the National League last year and the ninth most groundings into double plays. He was fifth in baseball in FIP and third in ground ball percentage, just behind Max Fried who was also one of the other pitchers to record two CGs.
Sanchez and everyone in the Phillies’ stable of arms would benefit from a healthy and productive season from JT Realmuto, as Sanchez and Aaron Nola were both tied for seventh in the majors in runners caught stealing while on the mound.
A nice recipe to success for a starting pitcher is to 1) get ahead in counts, 2) locate strikes to induce weak contact, 3) keep your pitch count low through the early innings and 4) frustrate hitters into adjusting their approach and over-pursue. Sanchez is adept at each of these abilities which will spell a lot of games where he’s through six innings with a lead and a low pitch count and Rob Thomson is old school enough to let him go the distance.
Prediction #2: Aaron Nola will reach 2000 career strikeouts
Nola needs 221 to reach 2000 strikeouts, which would make him the ninth active pitcher to hit that plateau and see him leapfrog Cole Hamels (1844) and Robin Roberts (1871) for second place in franchise history behind Steve Carlton (3031).
Nola’s K rate has been trending downward the past two years, with his innings pitched (199.1) exceeding his strikeout total (177) last season for the first time since his rookie year in 2015. But he has gotten 221+ strikeouts in four out of the six seasons in his career when he has started 30+ games, most recently in 2022.
I’m of the mind that Nola is too young to cause concern that his effectiveness is in decline and that he’s still capable of posting a 10+ K/9 rate like he did from 2019-2022. If he makes every start this year, he will get 2000.
Andrew Painter will start a playoff game
The company line has been that Painter is on a programmed trajectory to be available for meaningful usage some time around the All Star break. That could be just in time for him to slot into the rotation for an injured Jesus Luzardo or a traded away Taijuan Walker or Ranger Suarez. Some, if not most, listmakers regard him as the #1 pitching prospect in the game. If he’s healthy and there’s a spot available, he’s pitching in Philadelphia this summer.
In 2023, the Phillies had an extra off day between Games 1 and 2 of the NLDS in Atlanta, which resulted in them not needing a fourth starter until Game 4 of the NLCS. Last year and in 2022, the fourth starter spot came up in Game 4 of the NLDS.
WHEN the Phillies make the playoffs, Zack Wheeler will be their Game 1 starter, followed by Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2. This will result in a 2-0 Wild Card sweep and send the Phils on the road for the NLDS. Nola will start Game 1 of the series, followed by Wheeler and Sanchez again. Then? RT might be hesitant to go with back-to-back lefties and throw Suarez or Luzardo out there, but the fact is you’d be deep into a competitive playoff series and your best available arm should be giving you as many innings as possible. That arm will be Painter’s right one.