
Look to the stars
Orion Kerkering got lost in the shuffle a little bit last season. It’s understandable, as he was just another cog in a bullpen machine that produced two All-Stars and whose 5.8 fWAR ranked sixth in all of baseball in 2024. Nevertheless, Kerkering impressed in his first full season in the Majors, posting a 2.29 ERA across 64 appearances with 74 strikeouts to just 17 walks in 63 innings. His sweeper wreaked havoc on opposing hitters with a whiff rate of 31.1% and an opponent’s average against of .226.
But for the second straight season, Kerkering seemed to hit a wall in the postseason. Much like practically all of his fellow bullpen members, Kerkering struggled in the NLDS. He fared better than most but still allowed a run on 4 hits and two walks with a wild pitch in 3.2 IP. That is after falling apart in the 2023 NLCS where Kerkering allowed six hits and two runs in just 2.1 IP.
Now as we enter 2025, Kerkering is set to have a much bigger role in the Phillies bullpen. Gone are Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, the team’s two best right-handed relievers from a year ago. New addition Jordan Romano will likely fill the Estévez role as the traditional closer, or at least the closest thing to a traditional closer that the Phillies deploy. That means that Kerkering will inherit Hoffman’s role as the highest leverage right-handed arm, the one called upon when the game hangs in the balance regardless of inning and who has to put out fires. The one who will be tasked with getting the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Francisco Lindor, and Mookie Betts out in the regular season as well as the postseason.
In situations deemed “high leverage” by Fangraphs’ win expectancy calculations, Hoffman had a 2.13 ERA and 0.79 WHIP with a 31.5 K% in 39 appearances in 2024. Conversely, in the same situations, Kerkering had a 6.08 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with a 24.5 K% in 21 appearances. Opponents hit .186 with a 4.3 BB% against Hoffman. Kerkering allowed an opposing average of .225 and a walk rate of 4.1%.
Of course, these numbers are not exactly definitive. So, let’s just take a look at how both pitchers performed with runners on base, a key situation for someone occupying a fireman role. Hoffman had a 0.93 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 33.6% in 46 appearances. Kerkering had a 1.12 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 33.3%. Opponents only hit .194 against Hoffman when runners were already on base, while they hit .250 against Kerkering.
All of this goes to say that Kerkering has some big shoes to fill. The comparison is admittedly a little unfair, as Hoffman was one of the best relievers in baseball last year and was one of only seven to post an fWAR over 2 (teammate Matt Strahm was another). Expecting Kerkering to replicate a performance like that is perhaps too lofty of a goal. And it must be noted that Hoffman was arguably the biggest culprit of the Phillies bullpen meltdown in the NLDS, as he allowed 6 runs in just 1.1 IP.
But none of that discounts the fact that the Phillies will need Kerkering to take a step forward this year. Part of the reasoning behind letting Hoffman walk in free agency was likely that the Phillies believe that Kerkering can perform in the same role. The organization has always been high on him, as evidenced by his quick ascension from A-ball to the Majors in 2023. He is going to be thrust into situations where he will be tasked with getting the best hitters on the opposing team out with the game on the line. Not all of them will be clean innings either, as he will be expected to clean up messes left by his teammates.
Orion Kerkering’s 80 Grade sweeper never fails to amaze me pic.twitter.com/4AwRpB24iE
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 27, 2025
Kerkering has the stuff, as his sweeper is one of the best breaking pitches in the sport and his fastball touches 100 MPH. If you’re looking for obvious areas for potential improvement, limiting base hits is the biggest one. Kerkering’s .221 opponent’s average isn’t terrible but could be better. There isn’t much batted ball regression to look forward to, as his .220 xBA is almost identical to the actual number. The easiest way is to improve his number of swings and misses, as Kerkering’s whiff rate of 27.8% was good but his stuff leads one to believe it can be better. These are perhaps nitpicking, but Kerkering is being asked to find another level from his already strong performance.
Orion Kerkering, Frisbee Sweeper.
19 inches of horizontal break. pic.twitter.com/oST0FM6yX4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 6, 2025
The soon to be 24-year-old Kerkering has gone from just another cog in the machine to suddenly one of the most important pieces of the Phillies bullpen. If Philadelphia is to go where they want to go in 2025, Kerkering will have to seize the opportunity and turn into a reliable fireman.