10 bold predictions for the 2025 Phillies

The Phillies are gonna get another ring.

It’s time for my yearly humiliation.

Yes, that’s right, John’s 10 bold predictions for the upcoming Phillies season is back, a series of mostly overly optimistic wishes and dreams for what I think will happen this year.

As per the usual, some of these predictions are bolder than others. Some could be viewed as common sense, but none are guaranteed to happen. They are all optimistic in nature, because do you really want to sit down and read 750 words of how Player X is going to hit .230 and get benched by midseason?

Of course not! Plus, this Phillies team, whatever you may think of it, is still one of the most talented in all of baseball. There are great players littered throughout the roster. On a World Series contender, there are few players to be really concerned about, so why worry about something that isn’t going to happen, right?

RIGHT?

Anyway, here are my 10 Bold Predictions for the upcoming 2025 Phillies season.

Bryce Harper Leads the Phillies (and the NL) in Home Runs

In the three seasons that Kyle Schwarber and Harper have been teammates, Schwarber has easily led the team in home runs each year.

In 2022, he smoked an NL-best 46 bombs compared to just 18 for Harper, who played just 99 games after getting smoked by a Blake Snell fastball on the wrist. In ‘23, injuries once again limited Harper to just 126 games, when he smoked 21 bombs compared to Schwarber’s team-high 47. Last season, both players stayed healthy most of the year, with Harper banging 30 pitches over the fence in 145 games, with Schwarber hitting 38 in five additional games.

Harper wants to hit 500 home runs in his career, and through his age-31 season, he has piled up 336 of them. If he stays healthy and continues with his current 33-per-162 game average, he’ll hit the 500 mark at the tail end of the 2028 season, but most likely at some point in 2029. Harper has only led the NL in home runs once in his career, 42 in 2015, his first MVP season.

In 2025, he’s going to do it again, crossing the 40-HR mark for just the second time in his career.

Zack Wheeler Finally Wins His Cy Young

It’s entirely reasonable that Wheeler finished runner-up in last year’s Cy Young vote to Chris Sale. Sale had the slightly better season and deserved to edge Wheeler for the award. The true robbery came in 2021, when Corbin Burnes somehow beat him out despite having thrown 46 fewer innings with very similar statistics.

You can bet that, if it’s close in 2025, Wheeler is going to be the sentimental favorite to finally win that hardware. This is the year it finally happens.

Jesus Luzardo Finishes Top 5

Wheeler is gong to win, but a left-handed Phils starter is also going to finish in the top-five. Cristopher Sanchez is the chic pick to challenge for a Cy Young this year, but I’m going to zig where others are zagging.

The newly acquired Luzardo has looked electric in his early spring showings, reaching 98 mph in his first start of the spring with some nasty breaking stuff. It was just two years ago he struck out 208 hitters in 178 innings and was a four-win pitcher in 2022 and ‘23 (‘22 was 2.0 WAR in half a season).

Phillies Starters Lead MLB in WAR

Perhaps this isn’t so bold, given I have at least two starters in the top-five of NL Cy Young voting. But when you’ve also got Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez on a contract year and the aforementioned Sanchez slinging it every fifth day, and baseball’s best pitching prospect in Andrew Painter ready to join the fray late in the season, you’ve got to feel good about your chances.

The only challenger for the top rotation in baseball is the Dodgers’ insanely deep group of arms, and while I think it’ll be close, I’ll take the Phillies over L.A. on this one.

Bryson Stott Makes the All Star Team

Of the three younger stars on the team — Stott, Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm — I believe Stott is going to have the best season of the three, good enough to earn a spot on the NL All Star team.

Arizona’s Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies of Atlanta are legitimately great players, but a healthy and effective Stott is arguably as good as either. An aching elbow saw his fWAR drop from 4.0 to 1.7 a season ago, and guys like Nico Hoerner, Luis Garcia Jr., Brendan Donovan and Tyler Fitzgerald are all seen as being better right now.

But if Stott returns to his 2023 form, I predict we may even see him starting that All-Star Game in Atlanta.

Taijuan Walker Makes At Least 4 Starts for the Phillies

No, I’m still not sure how this Taijuan Walker situation all works out for the Phillies, but here are a few things I do know.

• Starting pitchers get hurt.
• No. 6 starters almost always get starts at some point, especially early in the season.
• Right now, Taijuan Walker is this team’s No. 6 starter.

It’s unreasonable to think one or two of the Phillies’ hurlers won’t need some time on the Injured List prior to when Dave Dombrowski is ready to call up Andrew Painter. Walker seems to be throwing a bit harder this spring, and the Phils will look to recoup as much of that $18 million they’re paying him this year if they can.

Phillies Trade for Taylor Ward at the Trade Deadline

If you’ve listened to my Hittin’ Season podcast at all over the last couple months, you know that I am not a believer in the Max Kepler, Everyday Player experiment that’s about to unfold. I think there’s a good chance Kepler is productive against righties, but I have no faith in his ability to hit left-handers.

We all know the Phillies could use more offense in the outfield, especially from the right side of the plate. That’s where the Angels’ Ward enters the picture, a solid, productive, right-handed hitting platoon corner outfielder that hit .325/.377/.496 with an .873 OPS against lefties a season ago. Just like the Phillies traded for Austin Hays at last year’s deadline, the smart money is on the Phils’ to do something similar later this summer.

Hopefully if they do, this one doesn’t have his kidney fail on him.

John McMillon Emerges as the Jeff Hoffman Replacement

The Phillies have seemingly replaced Carlos Estevez with former Toronto closer Jordan Romano, but did not find someone to take the place of Jeff Hoffman, who replaced Romano with the Blue Jays.

Or, maybe they did.

Everyone is talking about John McMillon, and for good reason. Picked up as a waiver claim from the Marlins last November, McMillon’s stuff jumps off the page. The Phils have had a lot of success turning guys like this into high leverage relievers, Jose Alvarado and Hoffman, most notably. There’s always one guy that comes out of nowhere in any successful ‘pen, and I believe McMillon has the best chances to be that guy. Here’s betting he sees some 7th and 8th inning action in the heat of a pennant race this summer.

Trea Turner Scores 115+ Runs

Would it surprise you to learn that Turner’s career high in runs scored is 107, done in 2021 for the Nats and Dodgers? It surprised me to see he’s only scored 100 or more runs in four of his 10 seasons in the big leagues.

It appears Turner is going to be the Phils’ leadoff hitter in 2025 and there should be no shortage of opportunities for him to score in front of a lineup that figures to be one of the 5-7 best units in the sport.

I predict Turner will set a new career high in runs, crossing 115 on the season. Why not?

Phils Win the World Series

Despite the obvious talent throughout the roster and their three straight postseason appearances, very few experts, and perhaps few fans, will be picking the Phillies to win it all this season. It’s easy to see why.

Their off-season was not as exciting as we’d hoped. They’ve taken a step back in each of their last two playoff appearances, despite increasing their regular season win total each year. On paper, the Mets got better. The Braves won’t suffer the same disastrous injury luck. The Nationals may be friskier.

And, of course, there is the new Evil Empire in Los Angeles ready to club every team in the head like a baby seal this season.

Forget all that. This is the Phillies’ time.

This is their time.

It’s Bryce Harper’s time to hoist the trophy over his head. It’s Schwarber’s time to bear-hand beer tosses from the crowd during a championship parade. It’s Zack Wheeler’s and Aaron Nola’s and Rob Thomson’s and everyone else’s time to do what they should have done at some point over these past three seasons.

The Phillies are going to win a World Series during Bryce Harper’s tenure in Philadelphia.

This is the year it happens.