The Philadelphia Eagles are a win away from playing in the Super Bowl.
Three stats to know before Sunday’s do-or-die NFC Championship against the Washington Commanders:
Stat One: Barkley Nearing Rushing Record
After sitting out Week 18, Saquon Barkley came up short of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing-yard record of 2,105. But the full-season mark, including the playoffs, is very much within his grasp. Terrell Davis set that record in 1998, putting up 2,476 yards on the ground en route to a Super Bowl win.
Barkley is at 2,329.
Following his 2,005-yard regular season, Barkley put up back-to-back rushing performances that reached the century mark in the playoffs. Notably, he hit 205 against the Los Angeles Rams. With 148 more, he’d break the record.
Seeing as he’s averaging 182 per game over his past nine games, it’s reasonable to think he could get there in one week (but hopefully, he gets a second chance).
Some people were upset when Barkley was sat in the last week of the regular season. And justifiably so—it’s not often you can make history. But Barkley still can.
Stat Two: Eagles Will Need Explosive Plays
In these playoffs, the Eagles are 12th out of 14 teams in success rate on rushes. But they’re 3rd in expected points added (EPA). How those two can coexist is simple: explosive plays. Barkley ripped off a couple of incredible runs against the Los Angeles Rams last week, paving the way for a victory—it would not have been possible without him.
This discrepancy existed with the Eagles all season, although not to that degree. In the regular season, they were 7th in rushing success rate but 1st in EPA. It was the opposite last season (including playoffs), ranking 4th in success rate and 7th in EPA. The run blocking has gotten worse on a per-down basis, but the Eagles’ explosive play rate has surged.
This was more or less the goal in signing Barkley. It’s a Barkley stat. He had 5.8 rushing yards per attempt in the regular season, but it’s not like he was getting six yards on every play. The reality? It’s a lot of boom or bust.
Evidently, the Eagles will be needing a lot more of that against the Commanders. But that doesn’t just involve their rushing attack. The passing game, too, will need to be better. Even though the Eagles are flat-out the better football team, it’s not ideal to ride Barkley to a win. Philadelphia’s offensive approach will have to be more balanced, most likely.
Stat Three: Led by Eagles, NFC Championship Has Had the Same Teams in the 21st Century
Sunday will mark the 25th NFC Championship Game since the 21st century began—the Eagles have been in eight of them. Including the upcoming one, the last 24 have featured at least one of the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, or those aforementioned Birds. The wealthy few have dominated the show.
With just one Super Bowl despite all this success, it’s easy to forget how good the Eagles have been during the new millennium. With the Saints and Panthers fading, the 49ers missing the playoffs, and the Packers still getting the hang of things with the days of Aaron Rodgers behind them, the Eagles have been a constant. They never go away.
The Commanders, on the other hand, are the new kid on the block. They haven’t gotten this far since Jan. 12, 1992.
Maybe the gravity of the moment hasn’t set in yet. After all, this is kind of becoming routine. The Eagles are one of four teams remaining in the postseason, and the NFC Championship is objectively theirs to lose. It’s the Commanders playing with house money.
Barkley, who is in the playoffs for just the second time in his career, cannot relate. Look for the motivated rusher to seize the day.
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