Super Bowl Film Preview: How the Eagles should attack the Chiefs’ defense

A closer look at Super Bowl LIX between Philadelphia and Kansas City.

I decided whether or not to focus on a few specific areas, but it’s the Super Bowl! I spent too long watching the Chiefs’ offense, so this preview is a bit shorter than the offensive preview. But it’s still pretty long… Let’s go!

I use a bunch of stats in this one, and credit goes to Team Rankings, PFF, and Sports Info Solutions. Lastly, my podcast co-host @ShaneHaffNFL is responsible for putting some of the graphics together in this one.

Chiefs Defense vs. the Eagles Offense

This Chiefs’ defense is pretty multiple with their personnel usage. However, they are predictable in terms of their defensive structure. This is a 2-high defense that plays MOFO (no single-high safety), and that results in light boxes. The Chiefs rank 28th in stacked box usage, and it’s easy to see why. They rank 32nd in success rate when they stack the box.

If they want to stack the box against the Eagles’ offense… I say bring it on! Stacking the box doesn’t always help against explosive runs. The extra defender in the box can expose you to huge runs. The Chiefs’ two starting safeties are Justin Reid and Bryan Cook, both of whom are on the slower side. I expect them to stick to a two-high structure.

Everyone knows that this Chiefs’ defense, led by Steve Spagnuolo, loves to blitz. We will get to that… but did you know they drop 8 into coverage at the 3rd highest rate too? I expect to see some drop 8 with a spy on Jalen Hurts in this game. This is something I saw vs. the Bills. Nick Bolton will often perform the role of a spy.

We will get into this more later, but this chart scares me the most. I’ll explain why later. For now, you can see that this Chiefs’ defense lives in a split-safety world (Cover 4) and doesn’t play as much single-high coverage as most teams do. The Eagles excel against single-high coverage.

Jalen Hurts vs. Split-Safety

Remember I mentioned the Chiefs’ defensive coverage chart worrying in the above section? This is why. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense are good against Cover 4 and Cover 6 (split-safety), but they rarely face it! Teams don’t play a lot of split-safety against them because of the threat of Barkley running. The numbers show that this offense is good against it, but I wish the Eagles had seen more of it prepare them for this one.

I think Hurts is a better quarterback when everything is simplified. Without putting this too simply, I think it’s easier to throw against single-high because you know you have one-on-one coverage on the outside a lot. This helps Hurts to excel against this coverage. Throwing against split-safety often requires more processing and this can sometimes cause Hurts issues.

Empty

When I watched the Chiefs vs. Bills, I was a little surprised to see how the Chiefs played the Bills’ Empty formations. They often rushed 4 and kept 7 in coverage. They didn’t seem too concerned about Josh Allen running which surprised me. If I was designing the game plan for the Eagles, I would spread this Chiefs’ defense out by going to Empty more. This should force the Chiefs to declare their coverage as it’s harder to disguise vs. Empty and if the Chiefs only bring 4, I would be looking to get Hurts running from Empty. I prefer spreading the Chiefs’ defense out to reduce the risk of their cornerbacks blitzing against condensed formations.

Cover 0

Some good news… the Chiefs rank 2nd in Cover 0 rate this year. But, they rank 19th in success rate when running Cover 0. In even better news, the Eagles have faced the 2nd highest amount of Cover 0 this year and rank 12th when facing it. The Eagles have had answers for the blitz all season long. If the Chiefs want to bring Cover 0 pressure, I am hopeful the Eagles have a plan. I would rather the Chiefs send Cover 0 pressure than sim/zone pressure. I’ll get into zone pressure later. Against man blitzes, I want to see a lot of this! Throw into the blitz!

In the Bills game, Josh Allen and the offense did a good job of identifying where the pressure was coming from (at times) and beating the blitz. They had some success with this.

If the Chiefs bring some Cover 0, I will take short throws to stay on schedule. I would rather check it down and hope for YAC than suffer negative plays. However, the Chiefs tackle well, so they want you to do this… that’s the chess match for you!

Running Game

The Eagles do not have a great run-blocking tight end outside of Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs are bad at defending the run against 11 personnel. The Chiefs are good at defending the run against 12 personnel.

This is simple. Run the ball from 11 personnel! Spread the defense out and give Saquon Barkley space to make defenders miss.

In terms of how the Chiefs will defend the Eagles, I expect they will try to prevent big plays. The Chiefs run a 2-gap style where the defensive line stay square to the line of scrimmage, and they rely on second level defenders coming downhill quickly to plug gaps. I would utilize pulling guards and motion in the run game to try and slow down the second level defenders, especially Nick Bolton.

Safety Rotation

Spags brings out some fancy safety rotation in the big moments. The Eagles need to be very careful if they go under-center and run play-action because the picture may change by the time Hurts is back facing the defense. As stated earlier, I would consider certain formations (such as Empty or 4-strong) to try and get the Chiefs to declare their coverage early. Hurts must be very careful when reading the deep safeties post-snap and can’t assume that the pre-snap picture will remain static.

The Chiefs love to rotate from middle of the field closed (usually Cover 3) to middle of the field open (split-safety – Cover 4/6) and Hurts will have to be careful of this. He may expect a one-on-one throw along the sideline, but the Chiefs may take this away post-snap. He has to be careful not to predetermine his throws, or he could get caught out by the Chiefs’ middle-of-the-field disguise.

Receivers vs. Cornerbacks

From the film I watched on the Chiefs, I was pretty impressed by their outside cornerbacks. There are barely any corners in the world who can cover AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in one-on-one, but the Chiefs may try at times! Trent McDuffie is an excellent (although undersized) corner who may end up on AJ Brown. I think this would be a fantastic matchup for the Eagles, even though McDuffie is good, because I think AJ Brown can physically dominate him at the catch point and the line of scrimmage. I think the Chiefs are vulnerable in the slot, and I would be lining DeVonta Smith up a lot.

The Eagles also need to use stacks and bunches to get receivers off of press coverage in this game. The Chiefs are a much better defense when they can press receivers at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs have played press coverage on 47% of snaps this postseason and only allowed a 46.7% catch rate and 5.2 yards per target. In comparison, they have allowed a 71% catch rate and 7.2 yards per target when not in press coverage. AJ Brown ranks 2nd in the NFL this year in yards per route run against press coverage.

I would like to see some 4-strong looks with AJ Brown isolated as the X. If the Chiefs want to press him, I would take that one-on-one. However, I would use stacks, bunches, and motion on the strong side to get receivers free releases. DeVonta Smith and Jahan Dotson can both be susceptible to strong press corners. Let’s do this. A lot.

Nick Bolton

After watching the Bills vs. the Chiefs game back, I had to do a whole section on him. Bolton ruined the Bills’ game plan. He was their defensive X-factor. He is a pain to game plan for because he constantly hovers around the line of scrimmage. He only rushed the quarterback on 3 snaps, but the offensive line continually shifted toward his side as they worried he might blitz. The Chiefs will line Bolton up over the guard on one side of the formation and force you to shift your offensive line to his side. Then, he will drop into coverage, and they will bring pressure from the other side. It’s so simple, but it’s effective because Bolton is very good in coverage and against the run, even if he has to move backward at the snap. Just keep an eye on him.

Free Rushers / Blitzing

This links to the above point. This is everyone’s biggest fear heading into the game. Spags is the master at getting free rushers after the quarterback. The Eagles can deal with this in a number of different ways. They could leave a running back into block more often. They may need to lean on quick-hitting concepts to get the ball out of Hurts’ hands quickly. If the Chiefs are using blitz-heavy fronts on 2nd or 3rd down, I would consider running the football, too, to make the Chiefs think about blitzing again. I know everyone gets frustrated when an offense runs on 3rd and long, but if you are considering going for it on 4th down anyway, I would be OK with some 3rd and long runs in this game.

This is what the Chiefs do so well. Line up a linebacker over the guard on one side of the formation. Then drop him into coverage and blitz from the other side. It’s exactly what I commented on above when discussing Nick Bolton.

The Chiefs’ highest blitz down and distances are 3rd and long and 2nd and short. You don’t want to end up in 3rd and long against this defense. But you also need to be careful on 2nd and short as Spags will try to force a 3rd and long. This is all over their film.

Let’s get into it. Here’s my biggest concern. Hurts has the highest scramble rate among all quarterbacks this year against zone blitzes. He takes the highest sack rate against zone blitzes. That’s a troubling combination. The Eagles need to make sure Hurts is comfortable against zone pressure. This is the priority. Hurts must keep his eyes up against zone pressure. Not like this.

I’ve mentioned a few times throughout this article that the Eagles must spread the Chiefs’ defense out. They need to be so careful when playing condensed formations. Everyone in knows that Spags loves to blitz his cornerbacks against condensed formations. You can’t make it easy for him!

Lastly, the Eagles cannot play scared. This is just a personal opinion, but I think the Bills played scared against the Chiefs’ defense and didn’t run their usual stuff. The Eagles have an elite running back. An elite offensive line. Two outstanding receivers. And a top quarterback. The Eagles should take some shots against the Chiefs Cover 0. If the Chiefs want to blitz, the Eagles should take some shots down the field. The Chiefs rally to the football very quickly and I think they are happy for you to check it down in the flat against their pressure looks. It’s the Super Bowl. It’s time to be aggressive.

Well Coached

This is a boring point, but from studying the Chiefs’ defense, my biggest takeaway is that this defense is very well coached. I don’t think they have unbelievably good talent. But I think they are extremely well-coached. In particular, watching them rally to the football quickly against screen passes vs. the Bills was very impressive. This type of play is all over their defensive film. The RPOs with bubble screens attached may not work too well this week.

The Chiefs’ defense recorded the league’s lowest missed tackle percentage (10.7%) during the regular season. This doesn’t surprise me at all. You can tell the unit is very well coached when watching them.

Overall

I think this is a very good defense, but it relies on outstanding plays and moments rather than consistent every down production. The Eagles’ offense has to score points this week. They have the talent to overcome this defense. I expect the Chiefs to have a few successful blitzes and force a few sacks, but the Eagles need to ensure they do not go into their shell and play incredibly conservatively. There are down-the-field shots to be had. I would prioritize running the football and trying to shift the Chiefs out of their split-safety looks before taking deep shots against single-high coverage. The most important thing is to have a clear plan against the blitz. Every single play needs to be designed with pressure in mind. I’m feeling pretty confident… until the game starts!

Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here.