The Philadelphia Eagles are still alive in the 2024 NFL Playoffs, following a win over the Green Bay Packers. They’ll continue their quest for a Super Bowl at home against the Los Angeles Rams, a team they walloped 37-20 on Nov. 24.
What are three keys to victory for Philadelphia?
Key One: Win on the Ground
This one’s pretty obvious. Saquon Barkley recorded the ninth-highest single-game rushing yard total against the Rams earlier this season with 255. Evidently, this is a weakness for the Eagles to expose.
Defensively, the Rams rank 19th in expected points added per rushing attempt (-0.051). Their success rate allowed is also subpar at 41.4%. This, as opposed to the Eagles’ elite rushing attack with a 2,000-yard player and three Pro Bowlers on the offensive line, could be a serious weak point for Los Angeles. Of course, it already proved to be one when they were on their own turf back in Week 12.
It’s worth noting that the Rams really started to turn things around following their 37-20 loss to Philadelphia, going 6-1 ever since (including their wildcard win). Even if we restrict the time frame to then, the Rams are 14th and 18th in the respective metrics—far from elite.
Key Two: Give Defense Some Breathing Room (But May Not Be Necessary)
The Eagles have been testing the whole “We have the best defense in the NFL, who cares about scoring?” schtick to its limit. They scored 10 points in the first quarter against the Packers last week then just 12 afterward. However, one point would’ve been enough to take home the win—the defense allowed 10.
The problem here is that the Eagles were kind of treading water all night, letting the defense do all of the work. It can’t be understated how tight the game was at times—Vic Fangio’s unit was simply up for the challenge.
Now, to be fair, the defense is the Eagles’ biggest non-Barkley strength without a shadow of a doubt. It ranks second in expected points added (second on dropbacks and second against runs). Even the Rams’ skilled offense, led by Matthew Stafford, is only 13th in expected points added (12th on dropbacks and 16th on runs).
The Eagles’ defense should win this matchup like it has all season. Not that the history is too important for these Eagles in particular, but it’s worth noting that they have only allowed 13.8 points per game at Lincoln Financial Field in the playoffs all-time. Defense is their thing.
An over-dependence on the defensive side of the ball isn’t ideal, especially considering the amount of offensive weapons the Eagles have at their disposal. But if it comes down to that, so be it. Their odds look good even if it does.
Key Three: A Good Week from Elliott
Jake Elliott’s 2024 regular season was pretty disappointing. It was the second time he dipped below the 80% mark for field goal percentage in his career—the first being his dismal 2020 campaign which made people question if he’d be a long-term member of the team. He bounced back in 2021, 2022, and 2023, converting on 90.9% of his field goal attempts and 97.9% of extra points.
Then, we had this season. Missing eight field goals, that was as many as his first three campaigns under Nick Sirianni combined.
The Packers game offered a turnaround. He missed an extra point, which wasn’t great, but he went 3-for-3 on field goals. Every attempt was in the 30-39 range—essentially glorified extra points—but he put 10 points on the board out of a possible 11. That’s all you really need to win a playoff game.
In the event that this one is tight, the Eagles will need Elliott to step up. Missing just one field goal could cost them. Even if they run away with the game, it’s important to establish confidence for the NFC Championship.
If anything, the Rams are an easier opponent than the Packers were. But that doesn’t mean they should be taken lightly. The Eagles have three missions: run the ball well, give the defense a bit of breathing room, and look for Jake Elliott to come up big.
PHOTO: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
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