Although there are betting platforms dedicated to fantasy sports betting, they are used for carefully crafting the roster you hope will rack up the points for you.
It’s a very different world from actual bookmaker lines on show for things like NFL betting at fixed odds sites.
Those game lines and player props from Vegas odds can be used as a research tool for creating fantasy rosters. The odds that come down for the markets can be a nice indicator of team and player strengths, which is something to lean on for fantasy picks.
Along with free betting predictions on sports like soccer, American football, and ice hockey, this can be a great but often overlooked tool.
Here’s why you should be looking at the current lines for your fantasy picks.
Accuracy
Bookmaker odds are very accurate in terms of implied probability, as bookies invest a lot of time and money setting them precisely. It’s in a bookmaker’s best interest to not needlessly give away value, and that’s why the lines are a great reflection of what could unfold in a match. The best time to check on the lines is on the morning of a fixture, as the props just become that much sharper at that point.
Spread for QBs
The spread odds can be helpful for fantasy quarterback selections. A common trend to target fantasy points from QB selections is to look at players who are likely to throw the ball a lot because they are on a team that often falls behind.
This naturally assumes that their QB is going to be slinging his arm more in constant attempts to catch up on the scoreboard. But this can be a risky fantasy move because they are likely in deficit a lot because their passes aren’t connecting, and you need connected passes from your QB.
So looking instead for Quarterbacks that can cover at least a -5 spread in the odds, tends to be the better option.
Higher Points
Higher points mean bigger fantasy points. The Total lines are the obvious place to go for this in bookmaker odds, but it’s worth looking at the separate Team Totals market first. Check out the team that’s the points favorite, for example, perhaps the Chicago Bears, who are 10-point favorites for a fixture.
If the line in the Totals market is around 45 then, the bookmakers are expecting a big scoring effort from the Bears, which can help with selections for quarterback and running back selections. Finding high Total lines in the odds is great, looking at which team is going to contribute the heaviest, is better.
Player Props
It’s possible to dig a little deeper with the specific player Prop lines from Vegas odds. A great one to look for first is the rushing yards props, which tend to be a little more accurate in terms of what will happen than receiving yards in the NFL.
Some Quarterbacks consistently take on heavier, more secure rushing workloads than others in the league, making them good fantasy options based on the relevant props.
As for lines on receiving yards, it’s best to skip over the running backs and lean toward tight ends and wide receivers. This is because they will pick up fantasy points from both rushing and receiving.
Again, the implied probability from rushing odds tends to be a little more accurate, but the strength of a player’s receiving odds can be used as a great tiebreaker. Use it to decide which player to add to your roster by having the receiving yards odds back up the rushing yards lines.
Back-Up Research
Because of the accuracy bookmakers put into their odds, they are a great tool for generating a fantasy roster, but Vegas odds can also be used another way. You will have already done your heavy fantasy research anyway, so the odds can be used as an agreement tool to back up your work after selecting your roster.
Take as much into consideration as you can, including line movement. If a match Total line shifts towards a lower-scoring affair being predicted, try and figure out why. Is public sentiment moving things, is there some injury news that’s bubbling that could affect your fantasy player performance?
In Summary
As a fantasy sports player, you should be looking for any kind of edge, and bookmaker odds could give you that. The weekly player props are particularly good for your fantasy game management.
The odds are projections of what can happen and are, at the very least, a good suggestion on things like how likely a player is to pick up a touchdown because the odds are attempts at precisely calculated probability.
PHOTO: viarprodesign/Freepik
The post How to Use Bookmakers’ Odds to Predict Fantasy Player Performance appeared first on Philadelphia Sports Nation.