At 12-2, the Philadelphia Eagles have officially clinched a playoff spot. And with a win in any of their last three games (or a Washington Commanders loss), they’ll clinch the NFC’s second seed for good. Even if they win all three, they’ll still need help to get the top seed.
That’s just to set the stage here. Either the first or second seed is almost a guarantee at this point, which is great news for the Birds. But how do they stack up against each playoff team? How should they feel about each matchup? Great, good, or is it a toss-up?
For the record, here are the current standings:
First Seed: Detroit Lions (12-2)
Second Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
Third Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Fourth Seed: Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
Fifth Seed: Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
Sixth Seed: Green Bay Packers (10-4)
Seventh Seed: Washington Commanders (9-5)
Washington Commanders: Feeling Great
If the season ended today, the Eagles would face the Commanders to open the postseason in the wildcard round. Washington’s playoff odds are 84% per NFL.com, so them at least being in the playoffs seems to be the likely outcome.
If these clubs were to face off, the Eagles would have three matchups against the Commanders this season. It’s worth noting that the last time the Birds played the same team three times in a season, well, this happened. A 38-7 clobbering of the New York Giants.
But enough of the past. The Eagles beat this Commanders team rather convincingly at Lincoln Financial Field in everything but the score, 26-18. Why should they be confident if they have to do it again in the postseason?
Well, the big thing here is the Eagles’ defense. Give defensive coordinator Vic Fangio credit—he helped that group go from one of the worst to one of the best without many shiny offseason additions. In that sense, I mean that no Saquon Barkley was signed. Fangio has done masterful work.
And that’s pretty terrible news for a Commanders team that has risen to success because of their offense. An offense led by a rookie quarterback, mind you. They have a subpar defense going up against Philadelphia’s elite offense, so it’s not like they win there. Washington will need Jayden Daniels to come to play—no ifs, ands, or buts.
The Commanders’ Week 11 bout with the Eagles on Thursday Night Football saw them rank 21st out of 28 teams in offensive expected points average per play (EPA/play). They were notably just 20th in EPA on dropbacks. Maybe Daniels wasn’t ready for a must-win game like that.
By all accounts, the Eagles have the upper hand in a matchup with the Commanders. Funky things can happen in a single game, of course, but it shouldn’t come down to that. If the Birds stay disciplined, they should come out on top.
Green Bay Packers: Feeling Good
If the Eagles finish as the second seed and the Commanders put on a show while the Packers fall back a bit, it could be them as the seventh seed. It would be the first postseason game between these two clubs since Green Bay visited the Birds in 2011 during wildcard weekend, a crushing 21-16 defeat.
So, the Eagles will want revenge. But how do they fare? Up 1-0 in the season series despite multiple turnovers, the Birds have the upper hand here. Both teams have changed a lot since then, though.
Notably, the Eagles and Packers both have an elite offense and defense this season, each ranking top eight in EPA/play for each statistic. It’s a closer battle than some would be willing to admit, at least by the numbers.
At the same time, however, the Eagles are almost guaranteed to be at home if they play the Packers. Plus, the talent is on their side—while they technically possess a weaker passing attack this season, weapons like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert outdo what Green Bay has. The Eagles have the best running game in football, too, so that’s a battle they should win.
If the first game of the season is an indicator, a 34-29 neutral-site win by the Eagles, defense and turnovers will be crucial. Whichever side gets the big stop could be victorious, and winning the turnover battle could also be make-or-break.
That said, the Packers are 0-4 against teams with double-digit wins for a reason. It’s not a direct explanation, but perhaps their youth is a contributing factor here. Against the Eagles—on the road no less—the assumption shouldn’t be that this changes. It’d be a tough “reward” for being one of the best teams in the NFL, but that’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes. A win wouldn’t come easy.
Minnesota Vikings: Toss-Up
Quite simply, the Minnesota Vikings are not your standard fifth seed. You could make the argument that they’re more formidable than any AFC foe (I might not take this side of the argument, but it is close)—this is a no-joke team.
This would be a later matchup, as there isn’t a likely scenario where the Eagles play this team in the wildcard round. If they end up losing the NFC North and stay as the fifth seed, this could be a divisional-round opponent.
Let’s start with what the Vikings are good at. For starters, their defense is impeccable. By EPA, they have the best rush defense (-0.229 EPA/play), a direct counter to Barkley and the Eagles’ potent rushing attack.
The offense is a bit less good, but 2018 third-overall pick turned journeyman, Sam Darnold, has found his place. The Vikings are 11th in offensive EPA/play and are ahead of the Eagles in dropback effectiveness (0.162 vs. 0.141). The run game makes the Eagles considerably better overall, however.
With home-field advantage, the Eagles would be the objective favorite here. But these teams are both so top-of-the-line that definitively saying the Birds should win isn’t exactly easy to back up. We could use the argument for the Packers that the talent favors Philadelphia, but these teams haven’t played yet and the Vikings are far more disciplined than Green Bay.
Minnesota will win the NFC North if they don’t lose the rest of the season and perhaps beat out the Eagles for the top seed in that scenario. The venue for this potential matchup isn’t quite guaranteed, but being at the Linc would help a lot. Regardless, picking a winner today is difficult—Philadelphia would need to be on their best behavior.
Los Angeles Rams: Feeling Great
How is it that the fourth seed has four fewer wins than the fifth? Anyway, that’s who the Eagles might see in either the wildcard round or a bit later.
The Eagles have already beaten the Rams this season, a thorough 37-20 beatdown on the road. Maybe the Birds caught Los Angeles on a bad day, but this is kind of in the Commanders tier. An elite offense with a subpar defense by the numbers is actually good news for Philadelphia—they’d welcome this matchup.
There’s not as much to say here because of how convincing the Eagles were in their victory. The Rams’ offense has been something to behold recently, but they were completely neutralized by the Birds’ soaring defense. This is one to feel good about, but you should never count your chickens before they hatch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Feeling Good
Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Eagles by 17 points in their last outing this season. They also handed Philadelphia its last playoff defeat.
But those Birds are gone. The Eagles have not lost a game since they did it to the Buccaneers in September (it’s almost January if you don’t have a calendar). Like the Commanders and Rams before them, this isn’t a team to take lightly but one that fits the mold of a good offense and subpar defense. Still, they get a bump for being objectively better than both of those squads.
Tampa Bay’s passing attack has been super effective under Baker Mayfield despite the absence of Chris Godwin. Their rushing offense, too, has been a treat. The two offenses here are neck-and-neck.
But it’s not all that close defensively. The Eagles have been fantastic while there’s been some mediocrity down in Florida.
If the Eagles can win once more, there’s no chance of them visiting the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in this game. That could be what gives them the edge over a team that has otherwise had their number.
Detroit Lions: Toss-Up
Lastly, the Detroit Lions. They’re basically the Eagles’ mirror image—this would be a fun one, but the home-field advantage will belong to Detroit if they go 3-0 over their final three games.
Seeing as the Lions are performing at a high level just like Philadelphia and may have the fans on their side, this is a toss-up. The Eagles will win if they’re at their very best, but mistakes happen. These clubs are both Super Bowl contenders, no doubt about that.
Offensively, the Lions have the edge passing-wise but the Eagles are better rushing-wise. Defending the pass has been Detroit’s bigger strength, while the rush has belonged to Philadelphia.
Differently than perhaps some of those other juggernauts in the NFC North, the Lions have tried-and-true weapons. This isn’t intimidating to the Eagles, but it just shows how unpredictable this game could be. It’s unclear who would come through in this potential big game. As of today, the Eagles are objectively playing better, though.
Nobody knows how a game will go until it is played, especially one in the postseason. But not every playoff game is created equal. There are some that the Eagles should fare better in than others. With extra football clinched, it’s important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of who they may play.
PHOTO: Eagles Nation on X
The post How the Eagles Stack Up Against Every Current NFC Playoff Team appeared first on Philadelphia Sports Nation.