Following a 2-2 start to the season, the Philadelphia Eagles have won six in a row.
Now, at 8-2, they control their destiny to win the NFC East, but they may not quite get a first-round bye week.
What needs to happen for that to be a reality?
Eagles Need to Take Care of Business
More than anything, the Eagles need to take care of the teams on their schedule.
Though it’d be ignorant to dismiss any of the seven clubs they face outright, not one of them is doing better than Philadelphia in terms of winning percentage.
Take a look:
| Opponent | Better Winning Percentage |
| Week 12: at Los Angeles Rams (5-5) | Eagles (.800 to .500) |
| Week 13: at Baltimore Ravens (7-4) | Eagles (.800 to .636) |
| Week 14: vs. Carolina Panthers (3-7) | Eagles (.800 to .300) |
| Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) | Eagles (.800 to .727) |
| Week 16: at Washington Commanders (7-4) | Eagles (.800 to .636) |
| Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-7) | Eagles (.800 to .300) |
| Week 18: vs. New York Giants (2-8) | Eagles (.800 to .200) |
Other than a road matchup with the Ravens, there isn’t a single game here that should give the Eagles any scare. The Steelers and Commanders have played above expectations, and the Rams could be on upset watch, but the Eagles should be able to handle themselves here.
To have a realistic shot at the top seed in the NFC, the Eagles may have to go 6-1 in this stretch, at least. It seems doable for a team on a six-game winning streak, but it’s not allowing for much margin of error. That said, they have the means to do it.
Regarding tie-breakers, both of the Eagles’ losses have come against NFC foes—if they are to lose to anyone, they want it to be the Ravens or Steelers. After head-to-head matchups, the next tie-breaker is the winning percentage versus in-conference opponents in a fight for the top seed.
Watch Out for the Lions and Vikings
At this point, it seems like the NFC is for the Detroit Lions to lose. At 9-1 and with the Eagles likely needing them to lose a minimum of two games, it’s not looking great.
Since Detroit only has one in-conference loss to the Eagles’ two, even if the Lions do lose to an NFC team, things may come down to the next tiebreaker, which is the winning percentage in common games. The Lions are 4-1 in these contests, with one final matchup against the Green Bay Packers to seal the deal. The Eagles are 3-1 in these games, with the Rams and Cowboys left to go. So, Philadelphia is hoping for a Packers win.
If the Eagles don’t get lucky and have the same winning percentage in common games as the Lions, we will go to point differential for the next category. There is no way around it; Philadelphia will lose this one, barring an epic collapse from Detroit.
With a plus-80 differential, the Eagles have the third-best rating in the NFL. The Lions are at plus-159.
The Lions have the Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears twice, Packers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Minnesota Vikings left on the schedule. Three losses in this span (a 4-3 record) would put the Eagles in a position where they can certainly have that one-loss wiggle room. Well, that is if the Vikings have nothing to say about it.
In the fifth seed as of now, it’s easy to forget about Minnesota. But then you realize that they’re 8-2, right on the Lions’ tail for an NFC North title. They play the Bears twice, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Packers, and Lions. It’s far from an easy schedule, but maybe they crush it.
If this one also comes down to a tiebreaker, there’s more flexibility than with the Lions. Both of Minnesota’s losses are against NFC teams, too, so one could go either way. If that doesn’t settle the score, then we have common foes.
The Vikings are 3-1 against those teams, with remaining games against the Falcons and Packers. The Eagles are 3-1 in such games, too, with the Rams and Giants left. This category seemingly favors the Birds for once, but let’s say yet another tiebreaker is needed.
Looking at point differential, the Vikings are plus-74. It’s far from a guarantee, but this scenario and the others likely favor the Eagles. If NFC North supremacy is taken from the Lions, that’s good news for Philadelphia.
Eagles Need to Finish Off Commanders First
Before worrying about a first-round bye, the Eagles need to clinch the NFC East. Both the Cowboys and Giants are irrelevant in this conversation, with both teams down their starting quarterback for the whole season—one due to injury, the other because they cut him. Philadelphia must put the dagger in Washington.
If the Eagles can beat the Commanders in Week 16, that’d more or less end the discussion. Any tiebreaker would belong to Philadelphia, and they might even take the division right then and there.
Things get more complicated if Washington wins. But with the Birds controlling the pace in their last matchup, a 26-18 win with a garbage-time touchdown making the score a bit closer, they should be confident.
An NFC East win is basically a one-way ticket to, at minimum, the second seed. The uncompetitive NFC West (Cardinals lead at 6-4) and NFC South (Falcons lead at 6-5) make it so the probable outcome is the NFC North and East being first and second.
Because they were slacking a bit in September, the Eagles will need to continue playing their best football until the regular season ends. Since the one-team first-round bye was implemented, three of the six teams to be awarded the honor advanced to the Super Bowl. It’s definitely at least somewhat of an advantage, and that’d especially be the case for an Eagles team that had a Week 5 bye week.
At the end of the day, though, the Eagles need to close out their 2024 season strong. If they can, they’ll be in a good position to make a run to the Super Bowl. This is regardless of what the Lions or Vikings do—it doesn’t concern them.
What the Eagles need to be focused on is their own game.
Can they close it out this year?
PHOTO: Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
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