Eagles-Rams playoff preview: 18 things to watch in Sunday’s Divisional Round game

Key factors to Philadelphia’s postseason matchup against Los Angeles.

Sunday can’t get here soon enough.

I know I’m not alone in being pretty fired up to see the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams at Lincoln Financial Field this weekend.

Since we’ve got time to kill, let’s run through some of the more important things to watch out for this in Divisional Round playoff game.

1 – Saquon Barkley could be a hot knife through butter

Is this phrase practical at all? Do people really heat knives for this purpose? I don’t feel like I’ve witnessed that.

Anyway, we all know Barkley absolutely dominated the Rams the last time these two teams played in Week 12.

Barkley ran for 255 yards, setting a new single-game franchise record. He also caught four passes for 47 receiving yards to give him 302 total yards from scrimmage, which is also a single-game franchise record.

One would think the Rams will be selling out to stop Barkley. They really need to make anybody but him beat them.

That much is easier said than done, however, because the Rams’ run defense isn’t good:

• Only six teams have allowed more yards per rush attempt this season.
• The Rams rank 20th in run defense EPA, 20th in run defense success rate, and 21st in run defense DVOA.
• The Rams have missed the seventh-most tackles in the league (hat tip ESP).
• The Rams allowed the ninth-most yards before contact per carry to running backs (1.2) while contacting RBs behind the line of scrimmage on just 35.9% of rushes, the fourth-lowest mark in the league (per NFL Pro).

Related to that last note, Eagles running backs have averaged a league-high 2.0 yards before contact per carry this season, resulting in the second-most yards per carry (5.3).

It’s not just about Barkley being awesome, which he obviously is. It’s also about the Eagles’ offensive line being quite capable of dominating the Rams’ defensive front.

2 – Is the Rams’ defense improved?

I think it’s fair to wonder if the Rams’ defense is better than the last time they played the Eagles.

Since allowing the Birds to produce 37 points and 314 rushing yards in Week 12, the Rams are allowing just 15 points per game and 100.5 rushing yards per game (excluding Week 18 when LA rested starters). The Rams rank 10th in defensive EPA per play and 16th in defensive success rate during that span.

Now, it’s also fair to wonder how much the Rams’ defensive improvement was related to opponent quality.

The primary running backs the Rams faced over the last six games they tried to win:

• Alvin Kamara (23 for 112 yards)
• James Cook (6 for 20) … Josh Allen was the Bills’ running game with 10 carries for 82 yards and 3 rushing TD
• Isaac Guerendo (16 for 57 yards)
• Breece Hall (14 for 52 yards)
• Michael Carter (13 for 70 yards)
• Aaron Jones (13 for 48 yards) plus Cam Akers (5 for 39 yards)

Safe to say Barkley is significantly better than those players. And the one from that group who comes closest to his talent (Kamara) logged 4.8 yards per carry.

3 – Jalen Hurts should probably avoid playing into the Rams’ biggest defensive strength

The Rams have a talented defensive line; LA ranks tied for ninth in sacks per game.

Second-year defensive tackle Kobie Turner leads the team with 10 sacks. Edge rusher Byron Young (not to be confused with the Eagles defensive tackle with the same name) and rookie Braden Fiske each have nine. First-round pick Jared Verse has 4.5.

The Eagles limited the Rams to just one sack and two QB hits in the last meeting. And that was with Hurts having an average time to throw of 3.4 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus. For perspective, Hurts had the longest average to time to throw in 2024 at 3.23 seconds.

Perhaps the Eagles’ offensive line will hold up once again and give Hurts plenty of clean pockets to work with. But giving the Rams’ pass rush opportunities to get home seems dangerous. Sam Darnold just showed us how that can go poorly … and that was with him averaging 3.15 seconds to throw.

Of course, the Eagles have a better pass protection unit than the Vikings do; it’s hard to imagine the Birds will be giving up nine sacks.

4 – Just how good are the Rams?

We asked this question about the Packers last week. Thought it would be interesting to do a similar activity with the Rams.

The Rams started 1-4 this season in no small part due to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being banged up. Once they were both back after a Week 6 bye, the Rams went 9-2 prior to resting starters in Week 18. Then they beat the Vikings at a neutral site in the Wild Card round.

Here’s how the Rams rank in some key categories:

• 17th in point differential
• 11th in DVOA
• 6th in weighted DVOA, which accounts more heavily for recent performance

Their record against teams that made the playoffs is 3-3.

• Six-point loss at Detroit Lions
• Five-point loss vs. Green Bay Packers
• 10-point win vs. Minnesota Vikings
• 17-point loss vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Two-point win vs. Buffalo Bills
• 18-point win against Minnesota Vikings in Arizona

Average points scored against playoff teams: 26.7 points

Average points allowed to playoff teams: 26.3 points

Through the lens of the entire season, the Rams are ranked similarly in quality to the Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, and Arizona Cardinals. Those are three teams who finished under .500 and didn’t make the playoffs.

If we look at the sample after the 1-4 start, they are closer to the Vikings, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Chargers. And worse than the Packers team the Eagles beat by 12 points last weekend.

The Rams’ win over the Bills shows their A-game is pretty good. But the likelihood of them replicating that kind of performance doesn’t seem high. They’re solid but not scary.

5 – Vic Fangio vs. Sean McVay

Last week, we referenced the August 2019 ESPN interview that features Matt LaFleur praising Fangio. Also from that article, this quote from the Rams’ head coach:

McVay: For us, I think Fangio and the Bears did an outstanding job of a sound scheme with versatility mixed with great players. And clearly what New England did down the stretch was impressive. Those are the two defenses that gave us the most trouble.

McVay is referencing the December 2018 game where LA entered as three-point road favorites in Chicago and lost by nine. The Rams averaged 30.8 points per game and 412.4 yards per game that season but Fangio’s defense limited them to just six points and 214 yards. Fangio’s unit also produced two points of their own with a safety.

As the story goes, the Patriots replicated Fangio’s game plan against the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. McVay’s offense was held to the lowest point total (three) in Super Bowl history and 260 yards.

Fangio and McVay met as primary play-callers against each other for just the second time earlier this season. The Eagles limited the Rams to 20 points (six of which came in garbage time when Philly’s backups were playing) and 290 yards.

And so there’s reason to believe Fangio has McVay’s number.

An oversimplified look at this matchup is the motion man versus the motion-stopper. Stats via NFL Pro:

The Rams offense featured motion on 82.1% of plays this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. Matthew Stafford recorded the 2nd-most passing yards in the league on plays with motion (3,123) while Puka Nacua recorded the most receiving yards in the league on plays he was sent in motion (457). Matchup: The Eagles defense allowed the fewest yards per play in the NFL against plays with motion (4.7). However, in Week 12, the Eagles allowed 6.0 yards per play when the Rams used motion, their 3rd-most this season.

6 – The Rams could try to go after Darius Slay again

The Rams weren’t shy to go after Slay in the last matchup. The veteran cornerback was targeted five times on just 18 coverage snaps before he left the game early due to a concussion.

Slay will likely see a lot of Nacua in this matchup. Stopping the second-year wide receiver is no easy task. But another good playoff game from Slay would go a long way.

7 – Quinyon Mitchell’s kryptonite?

Q has had a great rookie season. He’s allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap since the Eagles’ bye, which ranks sixth-fewest among NFL cornerbacks during that span.

Teams have clearly been reluctant to throw his way. Among 78 NFL cornerbacks who’ve logged at least 385 coverage snaps, only 10 players have been targeted at a lower frequency.

But the Rams game was statistically one of the lower points for Mitchell. According to NFL Pro, he allowed six receptions for 75 yards as the nearest defender in coverage in Week 12. The rookie hasn’t allowed higher totals in either category this season.

8 – Cooper vs. Cooper

Cooper DeJean got the best of Cooper Kupp in Week 12.

Via NFL Pro:

In Week 12, DeJean was targeted a team-high 9 times, 5 of which were to Cooper Kupp. Kupp recorded 3 catches on 5 targets for 11 yards with DeJean as the nearest defender.

Being able to take Kupp away should allow the Eagles’ defense to especially focus on Nacua.

9 – The classic A.J. Brown overcorrection

To be clear, I mean this as a good thing. Throwing the ball to A.J. Brown a lot is a very smart idea.

Hat tip to PHLY’s Zach Berman for bringing up this point earlier this week. There have been multiple “the squeaky wheel gets the grease” games since Brown has joined the Eagles.

A few examples:

Week 2 in 2023: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yards
Week 3 in 2024: 14 targets, 9 receptions, 131 yards

Week 9 in 2024: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 36 yards
Week 10 in 2024: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 109 yards

Week 14 in 2024: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 43 yards
Week 15 in 2024: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

Against the Packers, Brown was only targeted three times for one catch that resulted in 10 yards. One would imagine he’ll be much more active in this game. Especially since the Rams lack talent at cornerback.

The Rams have previously struggled to cover Brown. In Week 12, his seven targets resulted in six catches for 109 yards (18.2 average) and one touchdown. In 2023, Brown’s eight targets resulted in six catches for 127 yards (21.2 average).

The over/under for Brown receiving yards in this game is set at 70.5. The Eagles are probably going to run the ball a lot and Brown isn’t quite 100% as he deals with a knee injury. And yet the over still feels like a no-brainer.

Brown’s inner excellence will lead to outer excellence on Sunday afternoon.

10 – Keep feeding Dallas Goedert

The Rams didn’t struggle to cover Goedert in Week 12 when he was targeted five times for 4 yards and just 19 yards.

But the Rams have allowed the second-most tight end receptions and fourth-most tight end yards this season.

Also, Goedert saw nine targets for eight receptions, 117 yards, and one touchdown against the Rams in 2023. That was Goedert’s third-highest receiving total of his career.

Goedert has looked good since returning from a knee injury in Week 18. Keep feeding him.

11 – The Nakobe Dean replacement plan

Dean’s injury is such a shame. He was playing at a such a high level. And he was especially great against the Rams earlier this season. The Eagles will miss him.

Oren Burks exclusively played next to Zack Baun after Dean went down against the Packers. But Fangio made it sound like we could see a Burks-Jeremiah Trotter Jr. rotation moving forward. The Eagles previously used that two-man setup when Dean missed Week 17.

There’s little doubt that McVay will be looking to exploit the non-Baun linebackers. We’ll see if the Eagles are able to get by with what they’ve got or if that’s going to be a major issue for this defense.

12 – Another snow bowl?!

The current forecast for Sunday’s 3:00 PM Eastern kickoff shows a chance of snow:

Matthew Stafford coming to Philly for a game in the snow. Why does that sound familiar?

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

A playoff snow game could be pretty cool. One would think those conditions should favor the Eagles.

Stafford hasn’t been known for thriving in inclement weather.

Also, the Rams have really only played one cold weather game this entire season: Week 16 at the New York Jets with 23 degree temps and 8 mph winds.

During that game, Stafford threw his only pick from his last eight starts. His final stat line: 14/19, 110 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 83.2 passer rating.

The Rams scored 19 points against a Jets defense that allowed the 20th-most points per game (23.8) in 2024. And that was with LA being +1 in turnover differential with two takeaways.

Very famously, no warm weather team has ever come to Philly and won in the playoffs.

13 – The Eagles taking care of business at home

As of me typing this sentence, the Eagles are favored by six points.

Since the Eagles hired Nick Sirianni in 2021, no team is better when it comes to winning as home favorites.

Since the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford in 2021, they’ve hardly been road warriors.

14 – Milton Williams primed to thrive

According to NFL Pro, Jalen Carter faced a double-team on 62.9% of his pass rushes in Week 12 against the Rams. That was the fifth-highest double-team rate he’s ever faced.

All of that extra attention going his way allowed for Milton Williams to dominate his one-on-one opportunities. Williams had quite the night with a career-high two sacks, a career-high three TFLs, and one of his two career forced fumbles.

Correspondingly, Rams left guard Steve Avila and center Beaux Limmer really struggled in the last matchup. Avila was the Rams’ worst offensive player from that game by PFF’s grading.

Maybe the Rams don’t double Carter as much this time around? If so, he’ll make them pay. If not, Williams is more than capable of wrecking the Rams.

15 – Both kickers bear monitoring

With Jake Elliott blowing an extra point against the Packers, he’s up to 10 missed kicks this season. Not ideal. Tough to fully trust him right now.

But the Eagles aren’t alone when it comes to kicker struggles. Rookie Joshua Karty has missed five field goals and four extra points this season for nine total misses.

Now, Karty has not missed a field goal since the Eagles game, where he failed to make a 47-yarder. But he has missed two extra points since then … and one of them was outdoors in cold weather against the Jets.

16 – The Shawn Smith factor

Shawn Smith is the referee for this game. If you don’t know who that is, here’s a reminder:

There was some real bad officiating in the Eagles’ loss to the Washington Commanders. One would hope that’s not a factor here, though the Birds previously did beat the Rams in spite of bad calls earlier this season.

The Eagles are 3-3 in six games where Smith has served as the referee.

Penalties called on the Eagles from those games: 45 for 489 yards
Penalties called on the opponents those games: 37 for 296 yards

17 – Sean Desai revenge game?!

In case you didn’t realize, the former Eagles defensive coordinator is now a senior defensive assistant/associate head coach on the Rams.

While Desai had his faults, there’s no denying the Eagles did him dirty by demoting him in favor of Matt Patricia.

Desai wasn’t able to help the Rams beat the Eagles back in Week 12.

18 – Beware The Cliff Curse

You have to be steeped in The Ringer’s Philly Special podcast lore to fully appreciate this point but here’s the TL;DR for the initiated.

When Ace Producer Cliff Augustin attends sports games in person, bad things typically happen for Philly sports teams. The evidence suggests that “The Cliff Curse” could be a real thing.

And so it was shocking to hear that Cliff, who is indeed a Philly sports fan, is actually considering going to Sunday’s game against the Rams! If you want the Eagles to win and advance to the NFC Championship Game, do your part to tweet at him and/or write in to the podcast email address (ringerphilly@gmail.com) to tell him NOT to go.

On a related programming note, I’ll be doing another guest appearance on The Ringer’s Philly Special with the legendary Sheil Kapadia for the Eagles-Rams postgame pod. So, make sure to check that out to hear our takeaways from a big Eagles win … assuming Cliff doesn’t go to the game.