A.J. Brown is among the best players the Philadelphia Eagles have ever had.
Full stop.
Unfortunately, his injuries in the 2024 calendar year specifically make his importance to the team quantifiable.
But they also put into perspective just how important he is to the lineup—it’s to the point where he, in a perfect world, could be on an MVP ballot or two. He shouldn’t win it, but his value should be honored more than it is.
Through the eye test and stats, let’s defend that perspective.
Eagles’ No-Brown Downfalls
Last week (versus the Jacksonville Jaguars) is fresh in our minds, right? Brown went down with an injury late in the second quarter and did not return. Would it surprise you that Philadelphia was outscored 23-12 in the second half, mustering a minus-0.237 expected points average (EPA) per play in the third quarter?
The Eagles looked totally helpless without Brown. Call it a coincidence, but it’s not the first time this has happened. Wildcard weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was a disaster. Weeks 2-4 of this season were a disaster. No other player on the roster missing time has brought upon such a collapse at such a consistent rate—not even Jalen Hurts.
In the NFL nowadays, the best quarterbacks rely on a receiver. For Hurts, that receiver is Brown. Hurts has transcended into one of the best quarterbacks in the world, with his top target on the field, and he regressed fairly consistently when he’s off of it. You can’t blame him too much (because, again, that’s the landscape of the league), but it’s notable. That’s the impact of an MVP.
Among quarterbacks with 100 snaps since Brown returned from injury in Week 6, Hurts is second in EPA/play, second in success rate (SR), and fourth in completion percentage above expected. Only one quarterback is neck-and-neck with him in every stat, and that’s Lamar Jackson. During the three-week stretch that Brown was out, Hurts was, at best, mediocre in these metrics. But we’re sure that Brown doesn’t deserve any MVP love, right? That’s all. Is it just his quarterback “figuring it out”? I’m not so sure.
Brown’s Historical Impact
Brown is fourth in yards after catch above expected (3.5 per reception) among receivers with 25 targets this season. If you want big plays, he’s the guy who can make it happen. During his time as an Eagle, he has ranked fifth (2022), 17th (2023), and fourth (2024) in the metric.
Brown gets a ton of targets when he’s healthy (third and fifth in targeted air yards percentage in 2022 and 2023), and he makes them count. The Eagles offense is more or less average without this player on the field despite it being stacked with star talent—the results say so. And it’s because Brown is so involved. Again, this is an MVP-type player.
The Hurts-Brown duo—or just Brown’s impact on the offense—is mutually beneficial, to clarify. But did you see what happened to the Tennessee Titans’ offense after he left? Well, let’s check it out.
Here is where the Titans (TEN) and Eagles (PHI) ranked in EPA/play and SR during Brown’s six seasons in the league from 2019 to 2024:
| 2019 (Brown with TEN) | 2020 (Brown with TEN) | 2021 (Brown with TEN) | 2022 (Brown with PHI) | 2023 (Brown with PHI) | 2024 (Brown with PHI) | |
| Titans (EPA/play, SR) | 6th, 8th | 2nd, 3rd | 17th, 15th | 26th, 22nd | 16th, 27th | 29th, 27th |
| Eagles (EPA/play, SR) | 18th, 14th | 29th, 30th | 13th, 11th | 2nd, 4th | 9th, 7th | 7th, 14th |
Smells a little fishy, no? Hurts and improved health helped take the Eagles from a pretty dark place to a pretty good one, but it was Brown who changed everything.
The same can be said about his impact on the Titans, but just in reverse chronological order.
You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who’d legitimately give Brown an MVP shoutout. If anything, Hurts or Saquon Barkley would get the honors in an actual voting scenario if it had to be an Eagle.
But make no mistake: Brown’s impact can always be felt.
PHOTO: Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
The post A.J. Brown Might Be Eagles’ MVP appeared first on Philadelphia Sports Nation.