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Michigan will face its first formidable challenge this season when traveling to University Park to play Penn State. ESPN’s algorithm isn’t sure the Wolverines are up to the task.
Although Michigan is a 6.5-point favorite to remain undefeated, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor projects a coin-flip Big Ten contest. Penn State holds a marginal edge with a 50.7 win probability.
According to ESPN Analytics, Penn State has a 50.7% Chance to beat Michigan this Saturday in Happy Valley.
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) November 5, 2023
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Despite Michigan’s soft schedule, the team is second behind Ohio State in ESPN’s Football Power Index. However, the model also highly regards Penn State, ranked at No. 4 behind Oregon.
Home-field advantage thus gives the Nittany Lions a tiny edge. They haven’t lost at Beaver Stadium since falling to the Buckeyes last season.
The Wolverines continued their dominant season with a 41-13 victory over Purdue. They’re 9-0 with a whopping 34-point average margin of victory.
No team had exceeded 10 points against Michigan until the Boilermakers scored a garbage-time touchdown in the closing seconds of Saturday’s loss.
Long before a sign-stealing scandal sparked questions about Michigan’s legitimacy, skeptics scoffed at the team’s cupcake schedule. The Wolverines feasted on three mismatched non-conference opponents (East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green) before making easy work of middling Big Ten foes.
Yet Harbaugh and Co. will now encounter a Penn State program that’s 8-1 with a 28.3-point average scoring margin. James Franklin’s team suffered its only blemish in a 20-12 loss at Ohio State last month.
The Wolverines cruised to a 41-17 victory in last year’s matchup at The Big House. Those same complaints about Michigan’s schedule can also apply to Penn State.
FOX will air the marquee Big Ten showdown between Michigan and Penn State on Saturday at noon ET.