What history tells us about the Sixers’ road to the playoffs after poor start

It’s not ideal, but there is still hope thanks to teams of the past.

Hope springs eternal in every NBA team with two young star guards and should-be-better All-Star teammates despite a dramatic and historically bad start to the season. Thanks to Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain’s Friday night heroics over the Brooklyn Nets, the Philadelphia 76ers improved to a 3-12 record to begin the 2024-25 NBA season.

History says that’s nearly too big of a hole to climb out of and stand on the vaunted land of the postseason. Nearly. I won’t get into historical accounts of how many times NBA teams with the Sixers’ exact record at this exact point in the season have gone on to make the playoffs. The team plays again tonight so their win or loss will move them from one historical grouping into another. The important thing is they are bad. And bad teams often don’t make the playoffs.

But some do. I’ve taken five teams from 2000 to now who were undeniably in panic mode after the first month of the season but managed to turn things around and find themselves in a playoff series. In reverse chronologic order, those teams are:

• the 2022/23 Los Angeles Lakers (started 2-10, ended 43-39, eliminated in the Western Conference Finals)
• the 2021/22 New Orleans Pelicans (3-16, 36-46, first round)
• the 2020/21 Washington Wizards (3-12, 34-38, first round)
• the 2004/05 New Jersey Nets (2-11, 42-40, first round)
• and the 2004/05 Chicago Bulls (3-14, 47-35, first round)

Three common trends across each of those seasons point to their eventual success: surprise young contributors, win streaks, and big trades.

Of course, the Lakers, Pelicans and Wizards had the play-in tournament to boost them into the playoffs from the outside, as will this year’s Sixers, but they still were sitting in the sewers of their conference at one point with other teams who couldn’t manage the climb.

Surprise Young Contributors:
Jared McCain’s sorely needed electric start to his NBA career is a good signifier for the Sixers.

Every team listed above had at least one rookie or sophomore in the rotation. The Lakers had a sophomore and breakout season from Austin Reaves. New Orleans relied heavily on rookies Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado and Trey Murphy III. The Wizards played rookies Cory Kispert and Deni Avdija for around 23 minutes each, including starts. The New Jersey Nets started rookie Nenad Krstić 57 times. And the Bulls had ridiculous contributions from their freshman class of Ben Gordon and Luol Deng, both making the All-Rookie first team.

Getting meaningful minutes from unknown entities is obviously helpful to success. It’s as if a new, relatively bland-looking pizza spot opens up around the corner. You go in gingerly the first time but it’s so good that eventually, you’re heading to it almost every night, bragging to your friends about it, and forming a near-unhealthy obsession that leads to lashing out at the mere mention of it being bought out by a chain franchise (ie. traded).

Later success also makes sense for teams with young contributors. Perhaps in the early season, they haven’t earned the coaches’ trust or are still adjusting to the NBA. But soon they are trusted and adjusted and become not just rotational regulars but go-to options on offense in the later stretch of the season.

With Jared McCain being the best rookie in the league so far this season, the team has ticked one of these boxes. In theory, the game should only get better for him as more space opens up when (if) Paul George and Joel Embiid are playing consistently. Of course, there is a fear he could hit the infamous rookie wall and his play could see a decline, but, as PG said, the team can’t rely on a rookie being their most consistent player.

Win Streaks
Instead, they’ll all have to step up and, for consecutive games, weeks, and probably one whole month, be the team that was promised in the offseason

Of the above five, the Pelicans are the only team that never had a five-game win streak during their climb into the postseason, though they did have multiple four-gamers. The Lakers had just one five-game win streak but also went 9-2 in their last 11 games. The Wizards won eight in a row in April. The Nets won five straight in March, and 15 of their last 19 games. The Bulls, standing out yet again, had two five-game win streaks, one seven-game win streak, and a nine-game streak in March as they also won 15 of their last 19.

There are a few stretches in the season where the Sixers have successive games against should-be lesser teams. In fact, they’re in the midst of one right now. Their next eight games are against the Clippers, Rockets, Detroit, Orlando twice, Chicago and Charlotte. Those are winnable games, even if the Clippers, Rockets and Orlando, even without Paolo, are playing excellent basketball right now. When you compare healthy rosters, this Sixers’ squad can scrap with those teams. They don’t need to go 8-0 in that stretch but putting together 10-game stretches where you win more than you lose is vital. Duh.

The final 15 games of the year will also be crucial. If it weren’t such a big early season hole, that would be when the team could rest their stars and prepare for a playoff series with homecourt advantage. But with said hole, the season’s ending will be a slew of intense, playoff-like, high-stake games, especially against other teams fighting for favorable seeding. It does help that, so far, it’s a very weak Eastern conference. A .500 record may be enough to avoid the play-in altogether. But the team can’t hope the rest of the conference is bad. They have to be good.

I’ll continue to harp on the point that fortunes change quickly and teams now will look and compete differently to how they will in April, but the 76ers should go 10-5 in their 15 games (included below).

NBA.com

Big Trades
Before the end of the season stretch comes around, one huge date in determining the season’s fate will be Feb. 6 — the trade deadline. Of the above turnaround teams, the Bulls are the only ones who didn’t make a big mid-season trade.

The Nets made the biggest, trading for All-Star Vince Carter. That acquisition is likely the biggest reason for their run to the playoffs. The Pelicans acquired CJ McCollum alongside role players Larry Nance Jr. and Tony Snell. The Lakers, in what was a nearly expected move for a LeBron team at the time, completely upended their rotation, sending out Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and others to bring in *ahem* Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mo Bamba and Davon Reed. Playing it more simply, the Wizards only acquired Daniel Gafford and Chandler Hutchinson.

Unless one of their stars becomes untenable or frustrated, the Sixers won’t be able to mimic what the Nets or Pelicans did and acquire a highly-paid, All-Star-level player. Such a drastic Lakers-esque change isn’t too likely either. But a Wizards move, where they strengthened a big-man weakness by picking up a starter-level player, is on the cards.

Earlier this season, Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer reported that Daryl Morey is exploring acquiring a high-level player on a rookie contract. I wrote an article exploring who those players could be. Those names will become more clear as the season rolls along. Of course, the Sixers’ play will influence who is expendable. Even with Guerschon Yabusele outplaying his expectations, the team could use a smaller-big that can stretch the floor and switch one through five. As could every other team in the association.

With all that, it’s important to remember that more teams never recovered from a similar start to what the Sixers are facing. Their season will ultimately come down to how, when, and if their elite talent plays. Comparing this roster to the five I’ve discussed throughout, it’s not even close. Philadelphia has three All-Stars, a center two seasons removed from winning MVP, and a proven coach with fitting if struggling role players.

They should never have been in this position but they are. The early-season strugglers of the past all formed their own path, and none led to the Finals. That’s a big ask for this Sixers’ team, but it’s where they want to be eventually. This season has to strike close to that goal for this iteration of the team and franchise to continue to shift all the narratives.