What back-to-back games should Joel Embiid play and which ones should he miss?

The new normal for the MVP center is all about rest — so let’s use it wisely.

For any frustrating, nagging, and long-standing problem, the first step to recovery is acceptance. The Philadelphia 76ers’ frustrating, nagging, and long-standing problem is no Conference Finals appearances since 2001. The leading cause of that issue is star center Joel Embiid’s health come the late and important stages of the season.

But his text to general manager Daryl Morey after the team’s first-round exit last season signals a new willingness to change his approach. “We got to do whatever it takes to make sure that in the postseason I’m healthy,” the former MVP’s text to Morey read, as reported by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.

That’s acceptance. The next steps to solving a problem are all intentional, solution-based changes in behavior. An alcoholic stops going to places where alcohol is present, a rocky marriage attends counseling, and a chronically injured behemoth basketballer plays fewer games.

“We’re going to be very smart about how we manage him through the season,” Morey said at media day.

The 76ers plan to rest Embiid on certain nights to ensure a fully healthy team come April, May, and, if all goes right, June. The big man himself revealed that for this season and beyond he won’t be playing games on consecutive nights.

“If I had to guess,” Embiid told ESPN, “I would probably never play back-to-backs the rest of my career.”

The team has 15 back-to-backs in the 2024-2025 season. That’s 15 games they must choose to be without Embiid. Only eight decisions need to be made thanks to the NBA’s rules around star players playing in NBA Cup and nationally televised games, which the team has seven of on either leg of a back-to-back.

We’ll get those out of the way first (the NBA Cup or nationally televised leg is bolded).

• Nov. 12 vs. NYK (NBA CUP)
  Nov. 13 vs. CLE
• Dec. 3 @ CHA (NBA CUP)
  Dec. 4 vs ORL
• Jan. 1 @ SAC
  Jan. 2 @ GSW (TNT)
• Jan. 14 vs OKC
  Jan. 15 vs. NYK (ESPN)
• Jan. 28 vs. LAL (TNT)
  Jan. 29 vs. SAC
• Feb. 4 vs. DAL (TNT)
  Feb. 5 vs. MIA
• March 16 @ DAL (ABC)
  March 17 @ HOU

If Embiid’s healthy on those dates, he will play in the bolded games. That leaves us with the seven back-to-backs throughout the 2024-2025 season the team will have to make a call on which game Embiid will play.

Dec. 20 vs. CHA
Dec. 21 @ CLE
Here the team’s Embiid resting philosophy will become apparent. Do you go all out against a weaker team and ‘guarantee’ a win as much as possible in the NBA by stacking the deck against the Charlotte Hornets? The Hornets have been a twig under an elephant’s foot when going against Embiid. In his last five games against Charlotte, the center has averaged 39 points on 67% shooting (all wins).

Or do you back an Embiid-less (and possibly PG-less) squad against Charlotte at home before traveling with Embiid and PG to battle a stronger, more intriguing matchup of a Cleveland squad? Last season’s series between the teams was tight, split 2-2 with an average point margin of 3.75. (Embiid only played in the first match, a three-point Cleveland victory).

Perhaps coach Nick Nurse wants to see Embiid play against the strong defensive frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs are a potential darkhorse top-four seed and could easily be a playoff opponent come May. Do the Sixers want to acquire data for that matchup? Does Joel want to challenge himself? Does Drummond want revenge on his former team (of 25 games)?

Sixers’ brass are hopefully asking at least two of those questions. But this whole thought exercise exists because the team wants to reduce wear-and-tear on Embiid. So I think Embiid plays against Charlotte and the team hopes PG, Maxey and co. can win in Cleveland.

Jan. 18 @ IND
Jan. 19 @ MIL
A Giannis-Brook Lopez frontcourt will be physical with Embiid, whereas Indiana’s lightspeed pace could cause different fatigue. Both games are on the road and both teams will compete for a top-six seed. Getting out of this road trip with one win should be the goal. Therefore, I think the 76ers will rest both Embiid and PG for one of these games and play both in the other (this will happen at some point), but I can’t predict which team will face a full Sixers roster.

Jan. 24 vs. CLE
Jan. 25 @ CHI
The aforementioned physicality reasons lead me to believe Embiid will sit against Cleveland and play against Chicago. That only changes if the Cavs are close to the Sixers in the standings. But even then, it might be too early in the season for that to matter.

Feb. 11 vs. TOR
Feb. 12 @ BKN
Embiid and PG could fly to Cabo and start their All-Star break early. They are not needed in this back-to-back. Hell, even Maxey could head to the Chase Centre a few days early and miss that Brooklyn game.

Giving Embiid what would be 11 days off in a row in the middle of the season (assuming he doesn’t partake in All-Star weekend) is what this new philosophy is all about.

March 3 vs. POR
March 4 @ MIN
I would say play Embiid in the Minnesota matchup as the Trailblazers are going to be flogging for Flagg, but the Sixers play in Boston on TNT two days after. I’d expect they’d want a fully healthy squad for that, especially if it’s the best possible season scenario and the Sixers are close to Boston at the top of the Eastern standings. We can hope.

March 9 @ UTA
March 10 vs. ATL
Come March, Utah will also be well into the Capture The Flagg game amongst the league’s tankers, so no need for Embiid to suit up.

Atlanta doesn’t own their 2025 draft pick so they’ll compete the whole season. If things break well, their frisky, young squad, led by a spiteful Trae Young could even be in the six-seed battle. They’re at least good enough to be in the play-in race and warrant an Embiid game.

March 23 @ ATL
March 24 @ NOP
They may be players at the trade deadline, but the New Orleans Pelicans don’t currently have a starter-caliber center. Their best Embiid matchup is either Daniel Theis or Dejounte Murray standing on Herb Jones’ shoulders.

They should still be a competitive team though. Not playing Embiid leans into the Pelicans’ small ball strengths and, unless it’s the dream, dream scenario, wins will be increasingly important this late in the season. If both the 76ers and the big man want him getting a lot of touches against an unbruising but competitive matchup close to the playoffs, I’d expect Embiid to play in New Orleans.

March 29 vs MIA
March 30 vs TOR
That Miami matchup will be a good test in the final stretch of the regular season. It’s likely the Heat are still jostling for favorable seeding this time in the season. Embiid playing in a playoff-level environment against the genius of Erik Spoelstra just a week before the postseason would be a valuable experience.

As Jakob Poetl admitted at media day, Toronto will play for lottery balls all season. With a TNT game against the Knicks a couple of days after this back-to-back, Embiid playing against Toronto would be a shock.

With Embiid saying he no longer desires individual accolades, we can expect him to play in less than the minimum 65-game requirement for such awards. That means he’ll sit out more than just one game of each of these back-to-backs. As the season rolls on, we’ll understand the team’s philosophy towards his rest more.

We might even get a taste of it when the team opens their season on Oct. 24 by hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. Coach Nurse recently told The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Gina Mizell that the team’s “right on course with the plan they’ve set out”. The Sixers as much as any other franchise know that nothing really ever stays on course, but this plan should get them closer to solving their era-defining problem.