The three biggest questions for the Philadelphia 76ers as Joel Embiid returns

And they better answer them quickly.

In every game he plays, Joel Embiid dictates the form, pace and style. Opposing teams send multiple defenders, or craft whole new game plans to stop him. His Philadelphia 76er teammates are signed or discarded purely by how they capitalize or create his opportunities. He has been The Process that has defined the last decade of professional basketball in Philadelphia.

And now, he is The Plan. After missing the first six games of the season to injury and the last three to suspension, he’s back, with as deep a roster as he’s ever had. But a 2-7 start has halted all offseason back-patting and heaped an unwelcome amount of pressure on the big man before he’s even played a game.

With Tyrese Maxey now out for weeks, and Paul George still adjusting to a new team while navigating a minutes restriction, the hope lies on Embiid.

The team now has to maximize the minutes he plays in, which is another uncertainty, to dig themselves out of the early hole. We don’t know what games he’ll be playing, or how many minutes he’ll be on the court.

What we do know is that he’s finally back and the team is slowly running out of excuses. Their answers to the following questions will dictate the season and determine whether history writes this start as a mere misdirection or unsubtle foreshadowing of the misfortune coming.

No. 1: What’s the clutch-time plan?

Five minutes to go, game within two possessions. Who’s on the court? Who are you playing through? Every team should have this instilled into their identity. It is identity.

When Embiid plays, the hierarchy is well established. No need to even talk about it. Give him the ball. But what if it’s just not his night? What if the three-point shot isn’t falling so the opposition can run double or triple teams all they want?

There’s no data for how the Big 3 play together in close games (or any games). The only clutch game with at least two of three was against the Phoenix Suns. And it was bad. The team didn’t score a field goal in the final 3:34 minutes of the game. Paul George’s isolation attempt at the end of the game was a microcosm. He waved off a hot Maxey to dribble the whole shot clock and miss a contested deep mid-range.

It was better against the weaker Charlotte Hornets, despite George being the only star. George continuously had the ball and collapsed the defense. All five Hornets defenders sunk in on PG and the ball swung beautifully for Jared McCain’s clutch three. For Caleb Martin’s, three defenders walled off George and he made the simple pass. And George again drew three defenders on a tough layup (you could argue it’s a pass) that led to Guerschon Yabusele missing a wide-open putback.

When stars create advantages, it’s easier for the role players. Against Charlotte, those role players were Martin, McCain, Kyle Lowry and Yabusele. I think it’s safe to say Nurse will pick two of those four to close around the Big 3 (Kelly Oubre, too). They’re all capable shooters and, apart from McCain, switchable defenders. That’s the recipe.

Speaking of defense, the Suns targeted Maxey over and over again in clutch time. As did the Hornets to McCain. Modern NBA offenses attack small defenders like Nigerian princes attack retirement home email books. And the 76ers will likely have at least one small defender on the court when fully healthy.

With McCain’s emergence as a genuine offensive weapon, we may get a taste for Nurse’s defensive counters for the weeks Maxey is out. What lineups can the Sixers deploy that will alleviate defensive pressure off smaller guards? How high up does Embiid play on screens? Does the team want Embiid to switch on to dynamic star players?

Having Maxey, George and Embiid as go-to options in close games is a weapon chest no other team has. They fit so well together that letting them alternate isolation possessions seems like a waste. Especially with the capability role players like Yabusele, Lowry and even McCain have proven.

No. 2: What is Guerschon Yabusele?

It’s still too early to rely heavily on lineup data to draw conclusions, but Yabu as the 5-man has been much better than Drummond. Per Cleaning The Glass, which filters out garbage time, the team is a plus-1 with The Dancing Bear as the sole big. With Drummond, they’re a minus-20

Lineups including George with Yabu at the 5 are a plus +14.3 in 105 possessions. PG lineups with Drummond at the 5 are a minus -26.3 in 114 possessions.

And Nick Nurse is realizing this. Against the Hornets, Nurse went away from his regular rotation. Instead of Drummond, Yabusele started the second half and finished the fourth quarter and overtime. (Interestingly, he began OT with both of them, but they continuously got outrebounded and seemed to get in each other’s way.)

“It’s very simple,” Nurse said after the game about playing Yabu over Drummond. “He provides a little more spacing from his shooting threat… That’s providing room for others to operate and he’s producing from behind the line.”

The most important ‘others’ Nurse talks about are his stars. Which, in the Charlotte game with no Tyrese Maxey or Embiid, was only PG. And his chemistry with Yabu was immediately apparent. Of his nine assists, six were to Yabu. Two came from George driving into the paint, drawing defenders, and kicking out to the wide-open Frenchman for three.

He’s shooting 43.2% on 4.1 attempts per game — that’s spacing Drummond just cannot provide. On wide-open threes, he’s shooting 60.9% on 2.6 attempts per game. A big with that stroke next to Embiid is something Sixers brass and fans have dreamed of. It’s why they signed Al Horford that one year (sorry to bring that up), and it’s what Tobias Harris was meant to provide, but now, the Dancing Bear is here.

I’ve written about how Yabu’s interior passing, off-ball positioning, and defensive switchability should greatly complement Embiid. With how Yabusele has performed as the sole big, and the incredible spacing he provides, it will be interesting to see Nurse experiment with him in lineups.

Playing him with Embiid is 100% worth a shot and, if it proves fruitful, could even warrant Yabu starting, as Liberty Ballers’ Zackery Rogers discussed. That would leave the struggling Drummond as the sole backup five, but he’d fare better against other reserve centers…right?

No. 3: Is Embiid going to match his previous league-leading usage rate?

In three of the last four seasons, Embiid has led the league in usage rate. In the year he didn’t, he was second. If The Plan is to keep Embiid healthy, do you want to ride him as much as the team has in the past? Or is he more of a fail-safe for when the offense breaks down… which has been a lot anyway? Do you hope he draws a double and the team attacks off the ball in rotation with PG, Maxey, and the role-player repertoire prepared to finish the play?

With the addition of PG and a more well-rounded roster beyond that, the team shouldn’t have to rely on Embiid as much. He’s still such a force that I expect him to average nearly 30 points a game, and get to the line a lot, but not as much as he has in the past. It helps that he’s an efficient off-ball player. Last season, he had a 64% EFG on shots where he didn’t dribble before them — alley-oops, putbacks, catch-and-shoots, etc. Maxey and Paul George can collapse a defense and even carry the offense.

But every time Embiid is on the court, the team’s best option is to give him the ball. Everyone knows this. The record points per minute last season. The MVP trophy the year before that. And the two scoring titles to his name.

But now the team cannot lean on him constantly. They think that’s what’s led to the playoff injuries and subsequent disappointment.

Playing off Embiid’s gravity, not through it, is the new key to this team’s offense. It’s how the rest of the Embiid era will be defined. And tonight we’ll find out how that looks.