The play-in tournament could be the Sixers’ saving grace

The Sixers have dug themselves into a deep early-season hole, but the playoffs still aren’t out of reach.

After their blowout loss to the Miami Heat on Monday night, the Sixers are now 2-11. They’re tied with the Washington Wizards for the worst record in the NBA, just as we all expected coming into the season. (The offseason vibes were too good. We only have ourselves to blame for this.)

Injuries have been largely to blame for their dismal start. Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey have spent exactly zero minutes together on the floor this season. But if they don’t turn their season around soon, they’ll be in grave danger of missing the playoffs.

Luckily, they have two things working in their favor as they look to become a historical outlier: The rest of the Eastern Conference isn’t much better, and the play-in tournament gives them an out that most other slow-starting teams in NBA history didn’t have.

The 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers and 11-3 Boston Celtics are running away from the rest of the East, but the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks are the only two other teams in the conference with a winning record heading into Tuesday. The 6-7 Heat are currently the No. 6 seed, which means the Sixers are only four games back of a guaranteed playoff spot.

Even if the Sixers don’t finish with a top-six seed, they have the play-in tournament to fall back on. As long as they’re the No. 10 seed or above, they’ll have a chance to sneak their way into the playoffs. (Granted, that could mean a date with the Cavaliers or the Celtics in the first round, which isn’t much of a reward.)

The Wizards and Toronto Raptors figure to remain toward the bottom of the East all season, as both are in the beginning stages of a rebuild. The Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets have been surprisingly frisky to begin the year, but they both have veterans that they could pawn away to the highest bidder at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t be surprising if they joined the Sag for Flagg race in the final few months of the season.

If the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls and Nets do go into tank mode after the trade deadline, the Sixers would only have to jump one other team to get into the top 10 in the East. From there, they’d face either one or two win-or-go-home games to earn a playoff spot.

There’s still a chance that it might not come down to that. According to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, “simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index show the seventh-place team in the East winning 38 games, meaning 39 wins are necessary to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in tournament.” The Sixers would have to go 37-32 over the rest of the season to reach that mark, which isn’t unfeasible.

ESPN’s BPI still gives the Sixers a 60.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. Prior to Monday’s loss, Pelton said they earned a top-six seed in 45 percent of the BPI simulations. Their early-season tailspin isn’t necessarily a death knell to their postseason hopes.

You don’t have to look far back in NBA history to find teams that bounced back from a similarly dismal start. The 2022-23 Los Angeles Lakers began the year 2-10 before finishing with a 43-39 record. They beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in tournament to earn the No. 7 seed, upset the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and advanced to the Western Conference Finals after toppling Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors in the second round.

The 2021-22 New Orleans Pelicans got off to an even more nightmarish start than this year’s Sixers. They started the season 1-12 and were 3-16 on Nov. 22. They went 33-30 from there to finish the year 36-46, which put them ninth in the Western Conference. They earned a playoff spot by winning back-to-back games in the play-in tournament, although they wound up losing in the first round to the Phoenix Suns.

If Tyrese Maxey returns soon from his hamstring injury, the Sixers could have a shot to begin stringing some wins together. They’re entering a relatively soft stretch of the schedule, and since they’re already effectively eliminated from the NBA Cup, they should draw easier opponents in their to-be-determined matchups between Dec. 8 and Dec. 20. By New Year’s Day, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they’re firmly back in the playoff mix, if not the top six of the East.

It’s fair to wonder about the Sixers’ overall upside this season if Embiid continues to look like a shell of himself. He routinely starts slow after a long layoff, so some early-season struggles were to be expected, but his lack of confidence in his knee remains a concern for now. However, Jared McCain’s unexpected ascendance should help take even more pressure off the big fella, especially once Maxey is back.

The Sixers also still have KJ Martin’s contract and as many as four first-round picks to dangle on the trade market come Jan. 15. Whereas most contenders are relatively locked into their respective rosters thanks to apron restrictions, the Sixers have an opportunity to make a significant midseason upgrade.

All of that is to say: Let’s all take a deep breath and step back off the ledge for the time being. There’s a chance that this season is cooked—and 2025-26 was arguably their best shot to win a title with this group anyway—but the play-in tournament and the overall mediocrity of the East give the Sixers some time to get healthy and begin to coalesce with this new-look group. Besides, it’s not like we weren’t warned that there would be some early-season growing pains.

“The goal is always to win a championship, but it just doesn’t happen overnight,” Embiid told ESPN’s Tim Bontemps in mid-July. “And hopefully, it doesn’t take us as much time as it should when you’re trying to bring up everybody on the same page and making sure everybody knows their role and what they got to do to make sure that we achieve that goal.”

At least we have the Eagles to distract us from this tire fire until January?

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.