The Sixers held the 11th spot by themselves in the Eastern Conference standings for nearly two months. That changed just before the All-Star Break and their odds to retain their first-round draft pick have improved.
For what felt like forever, the Sixers did not move in the Eastern Conference standings. They were stuck as the 11 seed which was below the play-in tournament cut line but too high up to have a good chance at retaining their top-six protected first-round pick in this summer’s draft. On Dec. 27, Philadelphia moved ahead of Brooklyn in the East, and until last week, it did not jump any other teams or get jumped by anyone behind them.
When writing this article last week just before the break, I mentioned that the two games against Toronto and Brooklyn were going to be critical in determining what kind of shot the team really stood at keeping its first-rounder. Two wins would have created more distance between Philly and the teams it needed to jump in the lottery standings. Two wins would have continued the road to nowhere that it felt like the 2024-25 season has been traveling down. But, two losses would have created a plausible path towards retaining the pick.
Well, here we are and after losing both games, the Sixers are now tied with the Nets. They are also only three wins clear of Toronto after losing to the Raptors last week. Without getting into the details of what happens to the lottery odds in the event of ties, I’ll just say if you’re on the tank train for the season’s final 28 games, it is imperative that the Sixers finish “ahead” of the Nets and in sole possession of sixth place in the lottery standings. Doing so would give the Sixers a 46% chance at retaining the pick. That might not sound great, but it’s about as good as you could realistically hope for. Like we mentioned, they spent nearly two months not moving at all in the standings and at that point, a 46% chance at keeping the pick would have sounded great.
The reason it’s slightly less than a 50-50 shot at remaining in the top six despite having the sixth-worst record is because starting with the 2019 draft lottery, the NBA smoothed out the lottery odds. Prior to 2019, the lottery was only conducted for the draft’s top three picks and picks 4-14 were awarded by inverse record to the 11 teams that did not win one of the three drawings. Beginning in 2019, a fourth lottery drawing was done and the lottery combinations were more evenly distributed amongst the 14 non-playoff teams. This made it more likely for teams in the back half of the lottery to jump into the top four and thus is why the sixth-worst record is far from guaranteed a top-six pick. Last season, Atlanta jumped all the way up to the first pick from the 11th odds position and Houston landed the third pick via Brooklyn despite the Nets only having the league’s 10th-worst record.
But if we are trying to paint a more positive picture on the Sixers’ lottery chances, they’d actually stand a decent shot at Cooper Flagg if they are to jump Toronto and finish fifth in the lottery standings. Under the 2019 reformed lottery odds, the top three worst teams in the league all have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick. The team with the fourth-worst record holds a 12.5% at the first selection and the team in fifth place in the lottery standings has a 10.5% chance to win the top pick. That’s a gain of nearly two full percentage points for the team in fifth place from the pre-2019 odds in which the team with the fifth-worst record had just an 8.8% chance at winning the first overall pick. Even if the Sixers don’t jump Toronto but hold sole possession of sixth-place in the lottery standings at season’s end, they’d have a 9% chance at the first pick which is up from the 6.3% chance the sixth-place team held pre-2019. So, sure, in that case you’d be sweating out their chances of keeping the pick, but just know that even in that scenario they hold a better chance of jumping up to the first pick than they would have if the lottery was not reformed.
If you’re wondering what this means regarding what you should be rooting for, here’s how I can best explain it. It’s most important that the Sixers finish ahead of the Nets in the lottery standings and if that happens, there’s a wide range of outcomes for lottery night. If the Sixers can jump the Raptors, and there’s still a bit of work to do there, you can feel pretty good about retaining the pick and also feel somewhat good about getting Flagg. Without further ado, here’s a look at the schedules for the teams hovering around the Sixers in the lottery standings as we come out of the All-Star break.
Toronto (17-38): 5th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: vs. MIA Friday, vs. PHX Sunday
Philadelphia (20-34): T-6th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: vs. BOS Thursday, vs. BKN Saturday
Brooklyn (20-34): T-6th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: vs. CLE Thursday, @ PHI Saturday
Chicago (22-33): 8th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ NY Thursday, vs. PHX Saturday
Portland (23-32): 9th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: vs. LAL Thursday, vs. CHA Saturday
That’s right, we have another big Nets game on Saturday! I can sense your excitement in reading those words. By the way, Miami is currently on a four-game losing streak and Phoenix has lost three straight and six out of seven. Both of those teams may not be that inspired to travel to Toronto so the Raptors might be able to scratch out at least one win this weekend.