Sixers to begin season without Embiid. But is this more ‘load management’ or injury?

The season is here, but the team’s best and most important player is apparently not ready to go just yet? How did we get here, and how serious could this knee rehab situation become?

The Philadelphia 76ers season begins Wednesday at home vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez. The Bucks, led by by former Sixers head coach Doc Rivers, may not be public enemy No. 1 around here. That dubious distinction has been hostilely taken by the dreaded reigning champs, the Boston Celtics — Jaylen Brown and co. fresh off thrashing the new look New York Knicks (132-109) on opening night.

But local Philly fans have been pummeled with their own series of crappy injury reports in the days before the season. Paul George hyperextended his knee. He ultimately got great news as scans revealed nothing more than a bone bruise while the precious, vital ligaments were intact. That doesn’t seem like a long-term thing. Tyrese Maxey suffered a contusion of the thumb and left a preseason game early but that was truly precautionary and the budding superstar is ready to roll. Rookie Jared McCain did have to go to the hospital for a pulmonary contusion after a really scary fall. But he’s on the uphill, having been released from the hospital without any concussive symptoms.

But what about Joel Embiid, the franchise cornerstone? Our Josh Grieb had some of the latest from recent practice sessions.

Fans for many years now hoped that the sensational big man out of Cameroon would prioritize his health — and particularly the playoffs, where he has yet to make a second round healthily. The Kansas product dealt with broken orbital bones in two playoff stints (2018, 2022), and knee limitations of various sorts in a few others (2021, 2023, 2024). So as Bryan Toporek writes, this new approach, taking things more carefully, and not playing in back-to-backs, is long overdue.

Therefore, it was absolute music to fans’ ears at Sixers media day when the 30-year-old told reporters that he was not focused on regular season awards, 65 game minimums, or even playing in back-to-backs — the times when experts theorize players on long road trips are more likely to experience fatigue related injuries.

But the season has yet to start, and Embiid is set to miss the first couple games? That doesn’t quite sound “preemptive” as much as “reactionary,” now does it?

It seems likely that the lateral meniscus repair the former 2023 MVP and seven-time All-Star underwent back in early February is… still troubling him.

He wasn’t close to himself in the playoffs last season and it’s the biggest reason the team couldn’t move past Jalen Brunson and the Knicks — even if I could write 10k words about crummy officiating.

Then Embiid appeared in the 2024 Olympic games on a bit of a “load management” program there, as he didn’t play in every contest — not that he was needed for each one, but still.

It’s safe to say the appearance (following in the footsteps of an idol of his, Hakeem Olajuwon, as an African-born superstar representing his new home country of the US) helping them barely squeak by a surging Serbia team, led by Nikola Jokic, might have solidified the Gold medal they eventually hoisted after the final.

But that was early August. He’s been presumably resting up, rehabbing, and cutting weight (15-20 lbs if you ask him) in the two-and-a-half months since then. And he’s not ready to go yet? It begs three questions: 1) should he not have played in the Olympics? 2) did he suffer a setback there or since? 3) is this going to be an ongoing issue throughout the season or even (gulp) beyond?

After all, there’s only so much meniscus left in a knee before bone begins to grind against bone, cushion free; something Chris Paul once had to deal with.

Maybe the 76ers are merely being precautious, but Embiid missing the first games of the year doesn’t vibe that way. So was the information fans received dolled out in a way to intentionally leave us in the dark? I doubt it. I think they wanted him to suit up and knew he might. He’s a game-time-decision more than any other player, after all. But this can’t all be going to plan, either.

Fans (guilty) have been screaming for Embiid to load manage preemptively like Kawhi Leonard annually since 2019, and calibrate some of his more dangerous plays (channeling longevity warriors) like Tim Duncan or Nikola Jokic to avoid the most scary falls.

And maybe he’s hellbent on doing all of that this season.

But is it possible this is a lesson he could have learned a little too late?

Embiid almost did not play in this game vs. the Warriors below where he suffered the meniscus tear requiring surgery last winter. There were signs throughout that fateful night he should have taken a seat or been subbed out.

Instead, he got rolled up on by the Warriors’ Jonathan Kuminga, and now we await the ongoing fallout. If Embiid doesn’t feel right heading into the year, the questions about what has already happened in the past will only grow.

Stubbornness on Embiid’s part, an over-awareness of media criticism that he ducks Jokic, that he’s rarely healthy, a team who can’t win without him, and a franchise that has been unwilling to intervene even when it’s painfully clear he needs to sit and rest… The 30-and-10 streaks amid garbage time, or the fighting, clawing for loose balls in Golden State, on a night he nearly did not play, while down 14 points with just 4:34 remaining? Sigh.

Why was Embiid still in? Why did he then push to play Olympic ball? Where is he at now health-wise? Will the reduced weight help alleviate pressure off of knees, that have now sustained multiple surgeries, into his 30’s on a new extension? The less of these questions we have to ask this year, the better off our collective mental healths will all be.

Glass half full? The team has already decided which games they want Joel to play in, and not play in. And when Paul George went down set to miss early time, it made it an easy call to buy Joel a rest day to simply to limit the total number of games he plays in by regular season’s end.

Glass half empty? The season is newly here, and Embiid isn’t feeling well enough to play just yet, without any new injury to point to. This may be the best team Daryl Morey has ever had preseason, when healthy. But the implications here may make that “when healthy” part harder to achieve.