Should the Sixers trade down if they keep their first-round pick? Is Quentin Grimes a Mickey Mouse March mirage? We answer that and more in this week’s mailbag.
On Wednesday, we learned that Joel Embiid is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee next week. As Kyle Neubeck of PHLY Sports wrote, it’s unclear what exactly that means for his prognosis moving forward.
“The information we have currently does not offer a clear picture of the why behind this choice, or what precisely they hope to gain from an arthroscopic procedure,” Neubeck wrote. “Rather than a dramatic fix-all moment that some might have been hoping for, it seems to trend more toward their shared goal of taking smaller steps before a bigger, more consequential, and even more experimental move is made.”
At least the Sixers tend to be fully honest and forthcoming about Embiid’s injury status! Surely we’ll know more after the six-week timetable that it’s expected to take him to recover.
Before that news broke, we once again asked you for offseason questions that you’ve already begun to ponder. And once again, you delivered. Let’s get into it!
I’ll begin with the caveat that I am by no means a Draft Guy. Outside of March Madness, I haven’t watched a ton of college basketball this year. I have no strong takes (yet!) about how Ace Bailey or V.J. Edgecombe would fit with the Sixers’ current roster.
With that said, I’d be a proponent of trading down if the Sixers keep their pick but don’t win the lottery and get Cooper Flagg. That isn’t because I’m down on the prospects in that range; it’s because I’m worried about the uncertain futures of Embiid and Paul George and believe the Sixers should be in asset-accumulation mode whenever possible. They also don’t necessarily need more star power if they’re planning to run back this core next year. If anything, they need more low-usage, three-and-D gap-fillers, which tend to be easier to find later on in the draft.
If the Sixers can take advantage of a rebuilding team that’s desperate for a high-end talent— the Nets, Utah Jazz and Charlotte Hornets are the most likely candidates in that regard — they should at least see what else they could extract beyond a swap of first-round picks. It would be negligent not to explore all of their options with that pick.
Again, very much not a Draft Guy here, so I’m mostly relying on insights from LB’s Paul and Harrison (actual Draft Guys) along with what I’ve seen from other draft experts. With that said…
No. 1: Cooper Flagg
No. 2: Dylan Harper
No. 3: Ace Bailey (or trade down)
No. 4: VJ Edgecombe (or trade down)
No. 5: Tre Johnson (or trade down)
No. 6: Khaman Maluach (or trade down)
lagg is the only no-brainer here. I’d imagine Johnson and Maluach would be the most controversial picks. The latter could be a good long-term insurance policy at center if the Sixers are worried that Embiid’s knee is cooked, although he’s raw and likely wouldn’t help much right away.
Johnson wouldn’t fill an obvious need if the Sixers are able to re-sign Quentin Grimes this offseason, but NBA teams can never have enough talented young backcourt depth. If he’s the best player available at that spot and the Sixers can’t find a trade partner on draft night, take him and figure out which (if any) of the guards to trade later.
Are Grimes’ numbers just empty because they don’t have anyone else to score? Can Adem Bona be Embiid’s backup? Why does RCIV suck? Can any rookie outside of Cooper Flag immediately help a playoff team?
The Grimes situation seems unusual. How many other players have been in the league a few years, had their minutes shoot up and performed so well over a 20-30 game span? If you look at the range of people who have ever had a first awesome stretch like his, what’s the range of future outcomes?
— Zach Teutsch (@zteutsch.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T19:54:11.424Z
I’m combining these questions because they touch on the hardest part of the Grimes evaluation moving forward: How much stock do you place into Mickey Mouse March numbers?
If the Sixers are fully healthy next season, I’m not going on much of a limb by saying that Grimes is unlikely to average 22 points per game. Former Sixers forward Georges Niang recently reminded him of that by saying, “If Joel was here, your ass would be in the corner.” That might be true, but it’d also be a waste based on what Grimes has showed over the past few weeks.
Grimes likely won’t ever be the No. 1 option on a championship-caliber team, but he also won’t draw as much defensive attention when (if?) the Sixers are back at full strength. The fact he’s shooting nearly 49 percent overall and 38.4 percent from three-point range despite being at the top of every team’s scouting report bodes well for him moving forward. He’s flashing some self-creation chops that could also help the Sixers reduce their offensive reliance on Embiid moving forward.
Long story short, Grimes’ numbers are going to drop next year. But I don’t think he’s just a product of Mickey Mouse March. The big question is whether he can maintain his efficiency in a scaled-down role.
Rapid-fire through the other ones:
- Bona has shown promising flashes as of late, but it’s rare for a win-now team to rely on a young second-round pick as its primary backup center. Whether it’s Andre Drummond or someone else, I’d imagine the Sixers will rely on a veteran in that spot and keep Bona as their third-string big man.
- RC4 is an undrafted free agent who isn’t a great three-point shooter. Process-pilled fans often get carried away with young, bouncy, athletic players — perhaps because the Sixers’ veterans are nearly of AARP age — but the hit rate on UDFAs is low for a reason. Luckily, RC4’s contract is fully non-guaranteed after this season, so the Sixers could pursue an upgrade with that roster spot if so desired.
- I’d imagine several rookies in this year’s class can help a playoff team next year. The 2024 draft class was largely maligned, yet we’re seeing mid-first-round picks such as Jared McCain, Kel’El Ware and Yves Missi establishing themselves as legitimate starter-caliber players. Ryan Dunn, Jaylen Wells and Oso Ighodaro were all drafted outside of the top 25 and made a positive impact this year. Given the Sixers’ recent hit rate in the draft, there’s a real chance that they’ll find an actual contributor with their second-round pick.
What, you mean other than not paying $50-plus million per year to Tobias Harris 2.0 and giving $60-plus million per year to a center with one healthy knee?
Prior to the season, I mapped out what a two-stars-and-depth model could have looked like had the Sixers eschewed the Big Three approach. Rather than splurging on George, the Sixers could have divvied up that money among multiple key rotation players such as Naji Marshall, Derrick Jones Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and De’Anthony Melton. I tried it again after the trade deadline, using the benefit of a half-season of hindsight, and swapped out KCP, Melton and Andre Drummond for Malik Monk, Malik Beasley and Jonas Valanciunas.
Again, this comes with a few key caveats. The Sixers might not have been able to get any of those players at the same price they ultimately settled for with their respective teams. Their teams might have lured them with the promise of playing time, whereas the new-look Sixers would have had competition at just about every position. Still, that extra depth might have helped the Sixers withstand their relentless onslaught of injuries.
If nothing else, having multiple smaller contracts would have given the Sixers more flexibility to pivot at the trade deadline.
If the Sixers end up with the #1 pick, does it trigger a full rebuild? If they lose their first rounder, are there other options beside running back the Big 3 and hoping for better injury luck?
Let’s wrap with this one.
Even if the Sixers win the lottery and select Flagg, I don’t think they’d immediately launch into a rebuild. For one, they’d have a tough time getting anywhere close to equivalent value for either Embiid or George. There’s no point in selling low on either player unless they need additional flexibility for other offseason priorities.
I’m guessing that regardless of what happens in the lottery, the Sixers are planning to run back this main core and hope for better luck on the health front next year. If things go belly-up again next season, the 2026 trade deadline or 2026 offseason are when to consider bigger shakeups, particularly since multiple teams appear to be working toward clearing max cap space for that summer. That could make it easier for the Sixers to find takers for George or Embiid without taking back an equivalent amount of salary in return.
Thanks as always for the questions! We’ll see you next week — same bat-time, same bat-channel.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
Follow Bryan on Bluesky.