The Sixers might not have expected the former MVP to miss as much time as he has in the first half of the season. But it’s clear that the team as presently constructed isn’t good enough to withstand his absences.
In a lot of ways, the Phoenix game on Monday night perfectly encapsulated the first half of the 2024-25 season for the Sixers. Joel Embiid didn’t play. Tyrese Maxey stuffed the stat sheet. Paul George played poorly. There were bright spots from some role players, especially Kelly Oubre. Caleb Martin was dialed in defensively. But, in the end, the Sixers lost the game by double digits and fell to six games under .500.
On Monday night, there was enough for the optimistic fan to say, “Hey! Think about how good Oubre will be with more open looks when Embiid plays” and “If Maxey’s dropping 30+ with a healthy Embiid, those two could carry this team to some wins.” None of that is wrong, but the problem is there was still enough bad to lose going away to a Suns team that’s been in many ways a Western Conference equivalent of the Sixers this season.
Entering Wednesday night’s game against Washington, another one Embiid would not suit up in, the Sixers were 7-14 this season without their franchise player. What may be equally alarming to some fans is that the team is only 7-6 in games Embiid plays. There have been moments where Embiid looked like his old self on both ends of the floor, but obviously those moments have been few and far between. Even when it appeared the team was picking up some steam by winning the first three games of their recent six-game road trip, they lost two of the final three games on the trip. One of those losses came in blowout fashion against Golden State and they returned home for the first time in 2025 by losing again on Monday.
We are now less than one month away from the 2024-25 NBA Trade Deadline. While there is no shortage of opinions on what the team’s strategy should be in the coming weeks as they decide on what their goals are for the rest of the season, there is one unarguable conclusion we can reach in early January. This team is not good enough without Joel Embiid. Frankly, it’s a bad team without Embiid and now that we’ve surpassed 20 games without the big man, we should have all seen enough to arrive at the same conclusion.
Staring down a gauntlet of a January schedule that gets difficult beginning on Sunday night in Orlando, debates amongst fans will surely continue as to if it’s even worth trying to salvage this season or if a pseudo tank should still be pursued. The Sixers currently own the eighth-worst record in the NBA. If they are to worsen themselves enough to become the sixth-worst record by the end of the regular season, a spot they’re only three losses above at currently, they’d have a 46% chance of retaining their pick that is top six protected. The odds aren’t in their favor, but some fans would argue a 46% chance of drafting in the top six is better than a 0% chance of making a deep playoff run.
The 7-14 mark thru 21 games sans Embiid is a .333 winning percentage which is a 27-win pace over an 82-game season. If you haven’t been questioning Daryl Morey this season, now’s a good time to start. The team had this load management plan in place for Embiid all along. Building the best team they can assemble around Embiid should still be the goal for as long as he’s a Sixer. But if you build a team that wouldn’t win 30 games in an entire season without him, you’re probably not going to be able to hold up over an 82-game season with Embiid constantly being in and out of the lineup.
What’s sad about where the Sixers currently stand is that they appear to be on pace for the worst possible season they could have. There are no signs that Embiid will be shut down for the remainder of the season but Embiid’s cycle of approximately missing three out of every five games shouldn’t be expected to change at this point either. At their current pace, dropping to the sixth-worst record and upping their chances of retaining their first-round pick to the aforementioned 46% seems unlikely. They’re doing just enough winning to make that still feel unrealistic. But given the scheduling challenges facing the Sixers in January, a month that still has four more back-to-backs left on top of tons of playoff-caliber opponents, missing the play-in tournament might becoming increasing likely as well.
Morey’s roster construction decisions deserve further scrutiny. His biggest financial commitments to free agents in the offseason were George and Martin and so far, George has been a big whiff and only recently since returning from injury has Martin showed signs of life. Bear in mind, contributions from players like Martin and Guerschon Yabusele are not going to be as beneficial when the top-end talent on the roster is either unavailable or underperforming.
The team also does not have Jared McCain now, who was undoubtedly their second-best player in non-Embiid games behind Maxey so it’s only gotten harder to win the games that Embiid does not play. With McCain out, the lack of depth in the backcourt gets exposed significantly when Maxey needs to get a take a breather, however short his bench stints may be. Without Embiid, Andre Drummond has at times shown a high defensive compete level but is obviously not going to be anything close to the scoring threat Embiid is. Simply put, things like good 3-and-D play from Caleb Martin, offensive hot streaks from Kelly Oubre and 15 and 10 types of double-doubles from Yabusele are only going to take them so far in games Embiid sits and George stinks it up.
Morey may not have gone all-in on the “Big 3” but he sure seems to have relied on them more than he should have. He might pursue an aggressive strategy over the next 3-4 weeks to turn the season around and make the team good enough to win enough games to get into the playoffs while continuing to load manage Embiid. But make no mistake, this is a mess he created and the roster as presently constructed is just bad when Embiid sits.