The ‘safe bet’ of the offseason hasn’t delivered. Is he due for a bit of time on the bench?
With Joel Embiid off the injury report and offseason signing Guerschon Yabusele exceeding expectations, the Philadelphia 76ers are left with just one disappointment in their big-man rotation: Andre Drummond. Daryl Morey brought in the self-proclaimed ‘best rebounder to ever play’ as someone who could hold down the fort while Embiid missed time. Someone who would do the little things, finish defensive possessions, and create extra offensive ones. A veteran who would do more good than bad.
And it seemed a great idea. In Liberty Ballers’ preseason predictions, we were asked “Which incoming Sixer not named Paul George will have the biggest impact.” All four staff members who answered (including me) said Drummond.
But so far this season, his minutes have been awkward and lethargic, hindering a Sixers team with just two wins and the NBA’s worst offense.
Excluding Friday night’s loss to the Orlando Magic where Drummond only played three minutes while battling an illness, Cleaning The Glass has the team’s offensive rating with Drummond on the court at 99.8. That is in the worst 1% of the league. For the record, the Utah Jazz have the worst offensive rating at 104.5.
Drummond’s most frequent lineup is alongside Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin and Kelly Oubre Jr. In 92 possessions, they have a 91.3 offensive rating. With Paul George instead of Maxey it’s 78.9 in 57 possessions. The worst offensive lineup (minimum 100 possessions played) is Washington’s Jordan Poole, Carlton ‘Bub’ Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyle Kuzma, and Alexandre Sarr and their 86.9 offensive rating.
Lineup data isn’t gospel at this point in the season, but you’d rather not have your numbers be worse than the worst in the league. Of course, lineups involve five whole players, but Drummond isn’t helping himself.
He’s shooting 49% on tightly contested shots (defender within 2-4 feet). That’s the fourth-worst efficiency among centers shooting at least five such attempts per game. The three beneath him are starters/All-Star level centers who take more iso attempts, deeper shots, and command more defensive attention: Lauri Markannen, Alperen Sengun and Bam Adebayo. He does have the seventh best % against a very tight contest (minimum five games, one field goal attempt per game) — but that only accounts for 1.4 attempts per game.
If your offensive success is dictated by whether or not Andre Drummond is making shots, you can’t call yourself a serious team. So, for the 76ers, who by all means believe they are a serious team, it’s not the numbers that are the big issue.
To merely survive in the modern NBA, your team must be spaced out, and the other team’s defense must be stretched. Shots at the rim and open threes are the new oil and gold.
When a player cannot shoot a three, their defender can hang around in the paint and ward off any easy shots. And that is the Drummond Conundrum that Nurse faces.
In Philly’s opening NBA Cup game against the New York Knicks, Drummond’s first play illustrated the point. Paul George is driving on OG Anunoby. OG does a fantastic job of getting back in front of PG after gambling to steal the pass. But Karl Anthony-Towns has completely left Drummond, who is only a step or two outside the paint, to be there if PG does get by. Drummond’s positioning is bad for a lob so it turns into an awkward catch before he gets blocked.
Later on, Yabusele has the ball in the post and the Knicks completely ignore Drummond — fans are literally closer to him than any Knick. It leads to Yabu forcing a bad pass and the Knicks scoring on the fastbreak.
Similar problems occurred against the Hornets. After the match, Nurse said that he played Yabusele over Drummond because the former’s spacing “provides room for others to operate”.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the following plays are the straws that broke the camel’s backup big. Caleb Martin spun into an occupied paint and was blocked by Taj Gibson, who was guarding Drummond. Kyle Lowry rolled off a screen and was met by Gibson as soon as he caught it. Lowry panicked and forced a pass into Brandon Miller’s hands.
His teammates could’ve made better decisions in both possessions — Martin could’ve spun the other way, and Lowry could’ve thrown the lob to his big — but Drummond’s presence forces hesitation in teammates and enables decisiveness in the opposition.
Compare those plays with the following ones with Yabusele in for Drummond. Yabu is stood in the corner and his defender, Josh Green, helps late on a Paul George drive. PG got to the paint by driving through that Green-less space and drew a foul.
On a play for a Jeff Dowtin Jr. three, Yabu’s defender Cody Martin did not pre-help by staying in the paint. That means Caleb Martin’s and Dowtin’s defenders Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams had to slide over to help when PG drove. That led to the ball swinging to a wide-open Dowtin. Diabate and Williams would not have needed to help if Drummond had been in the paint.
When Yabusele’s defender does help early, it means an open three for him. Simple.
This isn’t to say Drummond should never play basketball again and start on the inevitable former-player-to-podcaster path. He is still a fantastic screener, one of the best rebounders in the league, and is willing and able to make simple plays for his teammates to shine.
But as the Sixers stay at the bottom of the standings, further and further from the hopes of the play-in the 10th seed brings, let alone the security and comfort the sixth seed holds, anything that isn’t working has to work out quickly. Nurse must be brutal in assessing what’s leading to wins and what’s leading to losses. Right now, Drummond is in the second category.